Actividades ecoturísticas a implementar en el área protegida

Four projects in the last several years are not enough to claim that there is an active market sufficient to support an industry. For a thriving market, there must be multiple suppliers and numerous buyers who conduct business on a regular basis. The world transit industry produces many thousands of rail vehicles and even more buses because a market is in place. Many active rail companies exist, although none is based in the U.S. Globally, a metro industry has hundreds of operating lines and an APM industry with dozens of operating systems, such as the downtown people mover (DPM) in Jacksonville, FL (Figure 9). These

24 ATN Industry Status and Market Potential

industries have official and non-official lines of communication and transactions. ATN suppliers and buyers do not.

Figure 9. Jacksonville’s Downtown People Mover (DPM)

Note: The Jacksonville DPM and others in Detroit and Miami have a basic APM supply, along with an operation and maintenance (O&M) industry, thanks largely to the airport market.

Source: Trans.21.

Elevators are part of a mature transportation industry of a scale to which ATN might be expected to evolve (or explode, according to some²⁰). This is a $21-billion²¹ market composed of a wide array of technologists, manufacturers, installers, O&M servicers, inspectors, and components suppliers. To provide a better understanding of this industry’s size, approximately 900,000 elevators are in use in the U.S., and about 20,000 new units are installed each year. Whereas APMs come under the purview of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), it is the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) that addresses standards for vertical transportation systems: The U.S. elevator industry includes an authoritative publisher that actively communicates with professional associations of contractors, safety officials, manufacturers, and consultants. Each meets every year and has officers. The many lines of formal and informal communications comprise the nervous system of a larger, dynamic industry. Most states and major cities have an elevator association, along with associations for contractors, safety officials, consultants, and/or researchers. This is an active industry with a calendar of meetings, seminars and conferences.

The ATN industry has some small groupings; however, they are not sufficient to suggest that the industry is anywhere close to maturity. The Advanced Transit Association (ATRA) has existed since 1976 as a forum of advanced transit thinking and collaboration²². Since 1983, Trans.21 has published TransitPulse,a bi-monthly newsletter on APM news and views, including ATN²³. ATRA now has an international industry group composed of members

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20 In 2008, Frost & Sullivan presented a potential revenue analysis for the global ATN market with scenarios ranging from conservative (10 billion Euros in 2020) to optimistic (80 billion Euros in 2020) (Frost & Sullivan 2008).

21 Elevator World annual industry report, 2012 (Mobile, AL).

22 http://www.advancedtransit.org/

23 Based in Boston (55 Virginia St, Dorchester MA 01225). (617) 825-2318 or [email protected].

TransitPulse began as a mailed, paper version, but is now in digital format and is increasingly the newsletter for ATRA news.

ATN Industry Status and Market Potential 25

actively providing systems and services relevant to ATN. The Stockholm-based Institute for Sustainable Transportation in 2007 launched the annual Podcar City conferences, the seventh of which was held in Arlington, VA, in October 2013 (Figure 10)²⁴. Dedicated consultants also are included in the industry, such as PRT Consulting based in Colorado²⁵, LogistikCentrum²⁶, and Beamways²⁷ in Sweden.

Figure 10. Podcar City 7 Conference

Note: Swedish official Hakan Jansson (left) and Matthew Lesh of USDOT exchanged views in Arlington, VA, October 23-25, 2013.

ATN Supply and Demand Struggles

The snapshot of the ATN industry given in the previous chapter shows its status as of autumn 2013. The supply side in 2014 and onward is likely to change substantially. For a new group or individual, the barriers to creating a corporation that claims it can deliver an ATN are not high, but obtaining valid patents and a working test track require more substantial resources. Putting an implementation into revenue service entails even larger budgets. Because no buyers have materialized with authorized budgets, how does a technologist move forward? Based on regular conversations with ATN developers, most of them are seeking investment funds.

On the other hand, it is quite easy for an ATN supplier to quit the field. ATN history is littered with companies that tried their best but still failed.

Table 4 shows the trend of APM projects, dividing them into three institutional sectors:

architectural (within a single property), institutional (involving more than a single property), and transit. Notable is the steady growth of driverless metros, almost completely outside the U.S., compared with the decline in architectural (primarily airport) implementations, and the uneven pattern for institutional projects (airport-rail connectors, universities, and special districts). The Suncheon project in South Korea was carried forward as an active project (included in Table 4) because its start of service, planned for spring 2013, was delayed.

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24 http://www.podcarcity.org/home/. See http://www.advancedtransit.org/industry-group/profile/, and Appendix 3.

25 http://www.prtcons.com/

26 http://www.ctr.kth.se/persons.php?person=ingmar

27 http://beamways.se/

26 ATN Industry Status and Market Potential Table 4. Trends in APM Projects

In billions of dollars (excluding O&M)

Year Level of

Project 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Architectural 1.31 1.12 1.10 0.97 0.83 0.99 0.51 0.68 0.52 0.41

Institutional 1.07 0.71 0.90 2.82 2.38 2.57 2.88 2.14 1.48 1.18

Transit 4.98 4.90 9.12 7.7 7.49 5.88 7.23 12.4 15.2 18.8

Total 8.0 7.4 11.56 13.31 13.0 11.5 13.0 15.2 17.2 20.4

Note: The table shows the trend of world APM project costs. ATN projects are miniscule by comparison.

Source: Trans.21.

Even ATN insiders do not know Suncheon project costs, nor has Vectus published them.

Trans.21’s estimate is $100 million, which is dwarfed (0.5%) within the $20.4 billion APM Pipeline. To summarize, no new ATN implementations have been identified, nor is there a self-sustaining ATN industry within the U.S. or globally.

Over the last decade, ATN listings have appeared in the Trans.21 pipeline for upgrades to the Morgantown PRT and for the installations at Heathrow and Masdar²⁸ . From 2011 onward, there was considerable news about an eight-km, seven-station ATN implementation in Amritsar²⁹, India, but construction is not yet underway. Morgantown is currently upgrading its controls, but the supplier has not yet been announced³⁰. Thus, there are prospects for some ATN contractual activity, but not enough to create the base for a functioning industry or market.

The Boeing controls that have operated safely in Morgantown are public domain, free, and available from West Virginia University since the 1980s. By today’s standards, they are rudimentary but totally safe. Supplied by Boeing, they are the starting point in any effort to supply ATN controls today. Who are other potential controls suppliers? More elaborated and updated versions are available, potentially from Noventus³¹, LogistikCentrum³², Taxi 2000, Beamways, PRT International, Aerospace Corporation, and Transit Control Solutions³³. Large technology groups such as Microsoft, Google, and others are known to be developing self-driving cars and may be working on – or could potentially mobilize teams to work on – ATN software development.

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28 Over the last decade there have been ATN listings in the Trans.21 pipeline for upgrades to the Morgantown PRT and for the installations at Heathrow and Masdar.

29http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ULTra_%28rapid_transit%29

30http://wvutoday.wvu.edu/n/2010/05/04/prt-facilities-master-plan-public-meeting-set-for-may-5 Clement Solomon, WVU Director of Traffic and Parking, November 2013 and in subsequent telephone conversations.

31http://www.noventus.se/spartaxi.html

32http://www.ctr.kth.se/persons.php?person=ingmar

33http://www.transitcontrolsolutions.com/

ATN Industry Status and Market Potential 27

Minnesota-based Taxi 2000 has developed controls and simulations. It was paid to develop a 300-station network in Abu Dhabi in collaboration with Wilbur Smith Associates.

It formalized commitments of collaboration with several prominent corporations in 2008, and these may be valid today.

What has been presented above summarizes the status of the supply side of the emerging ATN industry. Several firms are capable of delivering a 3-5 station project with service in approximately one year, and up to 10-station projects in two or three years. If one or two additional years are allowed to develop and integrate an ATN system, an array of potential suppliers broadens beyond 2getthere, Ultra, and Vectus.