ACTUACIÓN ANTE SOSPECHA O CONFIRMACIÓN DE CASOS EN EL CENTRO

The AFCI Economic Analysis team has established the processes and structure to support the collection of fuel cycle cost data. The cost data were drawn from over 200 reference reports, reviewed and summarized, normalized for consistency, verified through cost sensitivity analysis, input to models for evaluation of various fuel cycle scenarios, and applied toward new approaches for communicating fuel cycle economics.

7.1 Creation of a Credible Reference AFCI Cost Basis

The Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, commissioned by DOE, provides a comprehensive set of cost data supporting an on-going, credible, technical cost basis for use on the AFCI Program. System analysts will use this report to evaluate the impacts and benefits of a wide range of AFCI and

Generation IV deployment options. The report is meant to aid analysts in (1) understanding the issues and opportunities for keeping nuclear power an economically competitive option, (2) evaluating the elements dominating nuclear fuel cycle costs, and (3) developing the tools to evaluate the economics of creative solutions to make the nuclear fuel cycle even more cost competitive.

The intended use of the cost data is for the relative economic comparison of options rather than for determination of total fuel cycle costs with great accuracy. Each element of cost has a probabilistic range of accuracy and, when the costs are coupled together into a total fuel cycle system estimate, the uncertainty range is additive. The cost data are being used in studies to evaluate costs of fuel cycle options. Fuel cycle costs are an important part of the comprehensive evaluation that also includes measures of sustainability, proliferation resistance, adaptability to different energy futures, and waste management impacts (e.g., heat load impacts on the repository). These evaluations will result in the identification of cost drivers within the fuel cycle where development may be focused to reduce the costs within the system.

This report describes the AFCI cost basis development process, reference information on AFCI cost modules, a procedure for estimating fuel cycle costs, economic evaluation guidelines, and a discussion on the integration of cost data into economic computer models. This report contains reference cost data for nineteen fuel cycle cost modules. The cost modules were developed in the areas of natural uranium mining and milling, conversion, enrichment, depleted uranium disposition, fuel fabrication, interim spent fuel storage, reprocessing, HLW conditioning, SNF packaging, long-term monitored retrievable storage, near-surface disposal of LLW, geologic repository and other disposal concepts, and transportation processes for nuclear fuel, LLW, SNF, and HLW. The AFCI cost developers are closely coordinating with the Generation IV EMWG and have adopted many of the EMWG estimating structures,

assumptions, and estimating processes.

This report is based on data collected from historical reports and expert knowledge of past and current fuel cycle facilities and processing requirements. The reference data have been placed into a cost

collection database, screened, normalized for U.S. facilities, and summarized for this report. The fuel cycle requirements for future generation nuclear reactors are also being assessed and will be included in the cost basis as the technology matures. The cost basis information will be updated periodically with advancements in the knowledge gained in the technology development studies.

This report establishes fuel cycle modules with “What it takes” values and a plausible cost

distribution for a particular service, operation, or material. In most cases a cost or prices is given and does not include any taxes, carrying charges, or other overheads sometimes applied to such items by utility accounting systems. For example, some utilities may add refueling service overheads or significant carrying charges to the front end costs for UO2 fuel. This may result in open cycle fuel cycle front-end

INL/EXT-07-12107 (March 2008) 29 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis costs of 10 mills/kwh or higher. The constituent unit costs given are intended to be used in a simple, but highly transparent, “value added” model such as the Generation IV G4-ECONS reactor economics code. This model moves through the steps of the fuel cycle, multiplying all of the annual flows times the unit costs for each module or “box” and summing the annual costs. The grand total annual cost is then divided by the annual electricity production in kilowatt hours per year to obtain the fuel cycle contribution to the overall levelized unit electricity cost (LUEC). (Reactor-related components of the LUEC are discussed in Modules R-1 and R-2.)

7.2 Path Forward

This report will continue to be updated in future years based on the input from technical reviews; updated cost information; advances in the knowledge gained in the technology development studies; information collected through integration with AFCI, Generation IV, and GNEP studies. Additional cost sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to expand the knowledge base. Additional studies are underway to predict the costs for commercial application of fuel cycle facilities and fast reactors, understand the international market dynamics on the front-end of the fuel cycle (uranium), understand the economic implications of supplier-user system economics, and establish a basis for costing international facilities. The economic study can also be expanded to touch on new areas such as the costs of small nuclear power reactors, the economic impacts from meeting nonproliferation objectives, and studies on the utilization of the repository.

The AFCI Economic Analysis Working Group has integrated cost data into the AFCI VISION.ECON dynamic cost model, while continuing to use the Generation IV ECONS reactor economics code for static analysis and for cost verification purposes. Systems integration modeling of economic performance will be performed in conjunction with the Modeling and Simulation activity. Refined appreciation for the application of the cost data will be gained through support of AFCI reports and technical options analysis.

All reference fuel cycle cost data and source documentation will continue to be placed in the AFCI Cost Collection database. The fuel cycle requirements for future generation nuclear reactors will also be assessed with the help of the EMWG and included in the cost basis as this technology matures.