ACTUACIONES REALIZADAS DESDE 1996 HASTA 2000

Suppose that you are interested not in the bureaucracy but in public opinion:

Under what conditions does public opinion influence foreign policy decisions?

The public’s role in foreign policy making may be a research area that interests you. Much has been written about the important role of public opinion in domestic policy making, but there has been more of a debate about whether and when public opinion matters in foreign policy making. Here you might look at public opinion survey results on specific foreign policy issues to see whether political leaders change their own positions on issues before or after a change in public opinion or not at all. You will also need evidence to suggest that there is a relationship if, indeed, you do find that there is a change in policy when public opinion changes. You need survey data and a way to measure changes in leaders’ positions or policies. Some sources to start with are listed here.

Resources on Public Opinion

Entman, Robert M. 2004. Projections of power: Framing news, public

opinion, and U.S. foreign policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Graham, Thomas. 1994. Public opinion and U.S. foreign policy decision making. In The new politics of American foreign policy, ed. David A. Deese, 190–215. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Holsti, Ole R. 1996 and 2009 rev. ed. Public opinion and American for-

eign policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Mueller, John. 1994. Policy and opinion in the Gulf War. Chicago: Uni- versity of Chicago Press.

Powlick, Philip J., and Andrew Z. Katz. 1998. Defining the American public opinion/foreign policy nexus. International Studies Quarterly 42 (May): 29–63.

Shapiro, Robert Y., and Benjamin I. Page. 1994. Foreign policy and pub- lic opinion. In The new politics of American foreign policy, ed. David A. Deese, 216–35. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Western, Jon W. 2005. Selling intervention and war: The presidency, the

media, and the American public. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University

Press.

Of course, you will not be conducting public opinion surveys yourself, but you can use survey data that has already been compiled and is available to stu- dents and scholars. Even if you cannot do sophisticated statistical analysis, you can look at survey data for trends over time. Holsti (1996, 197), in his final chapter, sets out potentially fruitful research paths, suggesting that you look at the role of public opinion by (1) the type of issue, (2) the stage of the policy process, and/or (3) the decision makers’ beliefs about public opinion. Types of issues that may be of interest are trade, the environment, and ethnic, racial, re- ligious, and nationalist conflicts and civil wars (Holsti 1996, 193–94). If you consider the stage of the policy process, you can study steps in policy making, as Graham (1994) did in the case of arms control: agenda setting, negotiation, ratification, and implementation. For beginning researchers, the fourth area may be somewhat easier to study. You would need to look at what a particular leader says he or she believes about public opinion and then compare that to actual decisions to see if you can establish a connection or pattern.

As another option, you might want to research the factors that affect pub- lic opinion itself.

What factors affect public opinion on foreign policy issues?

Note that the dependent variable here has changed from foreign policy making to public opinion.

Once you understand something about public opinion and foreign policy making and have decided, more specifically, what you would like to study, you are ready to choose independent variables and cases and to develop hypothe- ses. If, for example, you want to compare the role of public opinion by type of issue, you may choose to look at a few decisions in one issue area, or you may choose to compare decisions across issue areas. You must be explicit about why you choose the cases you do. In all likelihood, the data you will need will include a measurement of public opinion. Sources for this are listed below. You will also need information on foreign policy decisions themselves.

Then you must take the next step and make a connection, if possible, between public opinion and decisions made. Remember that you cannot conclusively show that public opinion had a particular effect on any specific decision. However, you can say either that there was no relationship or that there may be a relationship. As you continue in your international relations studies, you will learn more sophisticated ways to determine the likelihood that there is a relationship at work.

Sources for Choosing Cases and Gathering Information

http://libraries.ucsd.edu/ssds/pubpolls.html

This website gives an overview of resources for the study of public opinion.

http://www.ala.org/ala/mgrps/divs/acrl/publications/crlnews/2006/oct/ opinionpoll.cfm

The Association of College and Research Libraries has developed a guide that lists public opinion poll websites.

http://pewglobal.org/

The Pew Research Center has a site for international public opinion information.

Public Opinion Quarterly

This scholarly journal is an excellent source for research on public opinion.

http://wikis.ala.org/acrl/index.php/Guide_to_Public_Opinion_Poll_Web_Sites Association of College and Research Libraries listing of public opinion websites.