Adjusted association between baseline sociodemographic, clinical and functional factors and annual change in 6MWD

There are Alert Levels in addition to the Fib Levels. The First Alert Level I use, and the trade based on that alert, is called a Swing High or Swing Low Trade. A swing is established when the market is moving in one direction, but then reverses establishing a peak high or a peak low. (Please recall, I name my trades  based  on  type  of  trade  and  avoid  names  such  as  “Cool  Boogie”  or  some   such as many teachers do. This makes learning much easier. It does not require pages of ideas to memorize.) Many traders use only these Swing Alert Level trades. I consider this one of the most successful trades one can take. Some call these Pivot Trades. I prefer Swing Trades. There are Swing Highs, Lows, Higher Highs and Higher Lows, Lower Lows and Lower Highs. Others term are;

Retracement Continuations or Trend Continuation. There are probably other names for them as well. Regardless one could say this is the Bread and Butter trade of this system.

So understand, when the market has been moving steadily, or is in a cycle, but then abruptly reverses and moves against the momentum, this makes an extreme high or extreme low price level. That extreme is called a Swing High or Swing Low. These may occur at other Alert Levels, or may occur in a momentum move between other Alert Levels.

Any Alert Level acts as a price attractor, like Support - Resistance levels. As an aside  thought,  I  don’t  follow  the  Elliot  Wave  any more, but basically that theory says the Market moves in waves, which are swings. They expect five waves, or swings in continuation. They anticipate three with the momentum and two

countertrends. The first wave is up, the second down, the third is up and should be the longest and smoothest. The fourth is down; the fifth is up, but not as smooth.

After the 5 swings, a trend reversal is expected. One of the problems is, various traders pick different starting points. On a Trending day one may find 4 or more waves and 3 or more counter waves in succession. Examples of that will be shown later. Some days there may only be two waves, before momentum reverses. I just let my indicators tell me how  many  “waves”  there  may  be. I believe the Elliot Wave is outstanding, but I feel my system is simpler, more consistent and easier to read. The important thing is to be able to discern when a swing begins or ends.

It is extremely important to be able to see on any chart at least three prior swings minimally. That would be in an uptrend, a Swing Low, followed by a Swing High, and then a Higher Low. In a down trend that would be a Swing Low, a Lower High and then a lower low. These are needed to establish the immediate

184 trend and for determining entries. The Gann Swing Chartist is helpful to see and to train one to recognize the Swings.

A series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs, with the Lower Highs being the most important shows the trend is down. Conversely, a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows, show the trend is up with the Higher Lows being the most important. This is the most basic way to establish a Trend. Obviously a 15 minute chart shows a stronger trend than a 5 or a 3 minute chart. In a downtrend taking out a Lower High reverses the trend to up! In an uptrend taking out a Higher Low reverses the trend down.

The next chart demonstrates the swings and how a downtrend is established. On the left we see a Swing Low then a Swing High. Then we see price hitting the prior Swing Low which is called a Retest. Then we see a Lower High. Price then drops below the Retest forming a lower low. At this juncture a down trend is now

established and stays in effect until a Lower High is taken out.

Remember, these Swing Continuation Trades are very high probability and

probably the highest. If one had a small account, or was just learning to trade, this would be the Trade to begin with. It should be mastered before attempting any other trades.

On the chart below is an example of a down trend emphasized with the yellow arrow, showing a trend reversal, when a Lower High is taken out. This is shown with the green horizontal line and at the green arrow on the right. There was a Higher Low on price at white arrow. The Histograms went above the Signal

185 Line. Leading into this juncture, there was a Convergence marked with yellow lines, predicting an uptrend was probable well in advance. The actual trend reversal is confirmed, when the Lower High is taken out. This sets up a First Trend Reversal trade to be discussed shortly.

The next chart below shows an uptrend with a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows with the Higher Lows being the most important. A taking out of a Higher Low reverses an uptrend to a downtrend! This is marked with the purple line.

This is a 2 minute Euro chart. This concept applies to all charts regardless of the periodicity. This means it applies to time, volume, and tick and even range charts.

Also remember, a new trend is only confirmed when there is a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows or Lower Lows and Lower Highs!

186 It is must be emphasized that a Swing is a very, very strong Alert Level.

Consequently, one expects when a Swing High Alert is established, a Lower High will almost always occur. If a Swing Low Alert Level is made, there will almost always be a Lower High following. The statistics prove the odds are very high this will happen. We always buy the Higher Lows and sell the Lower Highs with indicator confirmation.

In the Bond 3 minute chart example below, one can see I have 3 swings on the chart as recommended previously. I have drawn horizontal lines across entire chart, to extend the swings for retests, and Breakout levels.

In the green box, there is a Lower High sell. The yellow arrow at the far left shows a down momentum is in effect. A Swing Low is established at the green arrow. A Lower High is established at the pink arrow. To determine an entry and to prove price is resuming the downward momentum, I have drawn a minor trend line along the bottom of the candles in the upward move of the rally. This is in light gray marked  at  “A”.  Minor trend lines help determine when the turnaround is finished, and the momentum is resuming by a break of that line! This would be a Setup for a Lower High sell! These minor trend lines make the charts busy. With experience, one will not have to draw them then.

187 In the red box, there is another Lower High Sell. The 13 EMA confirms the downtrend at the orange arrow. We have a Swing Low at the gray arrow, a Swing High at the purple arrow. I have drawn another minor trend line for the rally at

“B”. Breaking that minor trend line gave one signal for the short entry.

In the blue box, we have a Lower Low at the red arrow. This says we are looking for a Lower High Sell again. A turnaround moved up to form a Retest, which I have labeled. It goes back to the Lower High at the purple arrow. A Retest usually gives trend continuation, so we expect price to fall. The EMAs never

turned back down, so a short entry should not have been taken. At the Retest price does fall. I have drawn a light gray minor trend line  marked  at  “C”. This time the line is down. Since no entry was taken, we start looking for a Higher Low Buy.

The market did move up, so we now have a pullback establishing a Higher Low.

The minor trend line is drawn on the tops of the Candlesticks in this market hesitation. A Higher Low is seen at the blue arrow. This suggests a Higher Low Buy, to be discussed later.

In addition to the minor trend lines I have drawn, there are other signals for an entry.

Remember, Retest Trades are mostly Continuation Trades. Countertrend Trades use swings also, but they require other signals to be discussed later.

188 The first target for either a Higher Low Buy or a Lower High sell would be the Swing that set up the trade. In the chart above in the green box, for the Lower High sell  at  “A”  it  would be the level marked by the green arrow. In the blue box for the Lower High sell  at  “B”  it  would  be  the level marked by the gray arrow. In the blue box for the Higher Low Buy at the blue arrow, it is the level pinpointed by the white arrow. This coincides with the blue horizontal retest line. Moreover we expect price to surpass those levels! Therefore, one would watch for a Breakout of these levels to take further profits! This is expected as this is a Trend Momentum Continuation Trade! A price Retest is formed at these target levels, but, it is a Minor Retest, unless it occurs at a Fib Level. Then it is a Major Retest! Remember, a Minor Retest of price favors trend continuation. A Major Retest almost always gives a bounce turnaround.

Another Higher Low Buy Retest Trade example is seen on the ES 3 minute Trade Chart below. Once more I say, this is our bread and butter trade and comes with jam!

We want to see an upmove preferably with 3 swings to confirm a trend. At  “A”,   the market turned around establishing a Swing High, pinpointed by the red arrow. In this example there was a Tweezer Top followed by several lower bars in a Pullback. The 3 EMA crossed below the 5 EMA and price crossed the 15 EMA. The Blau indicators turned down crossing below the Signal Line at the purple arrows. This establishes a Pullback, so we are looking for a Higher Low Swing. Remember with Swing Highs, we look for Higher Low Buys!

The Market turned back up at  “B”  pinpointed  by  the  green  arrow,  

establishing the Higher Low swing. The 3 crossed above the 5 EMA. These set up a Higher Low Buy. The lowest coiled, red Candlestick is the Signal Bar

marked  “1”  with a blue arrow. There must be a bar close above the high of that bar in order to enter a trade. A minor trend line was drawn from the Swing High Bar at

“A”  to  the  Signal  Bar  “1”  shown  with  the  broken  purple  line. Price must move above this trend line as well to confirm trend resumption.

The first bar to close above the Signal Bar and break the minor trend line is marked

“2”.  Sometimes there might be 3 or 4 Candlesticks before we get a close above the Signal Bar. This weakens the probability of a successful trade. The PAC is the one tick  above  the  close  not  the  high  of  bar  “2”.  Here  there  was  only  a  one  tick  

difference. It is really not critical as so often they are close. The entry occurred at the  yellow  arrow  marked  “3”.  It  is  important  the  close  be  in the top third of the bar and the closer to the high end the better.

189 Furthermore, we want to see the 3 cross above the 5 EMA, which it also did at  “2”.

If they had crossed down in the Pullback below the 15 EMA, they would have to cross above the 15 EMA to take a new entry. If the Higher Low Buy Signal Bar is a Doji, or a SBRB, as in this case, it strengthens the probability of trend

resumption. A change of color as seen in the first bar to close above the Signal Bar to green is essential. The Histograms must turn up and close above the Signal Lines, which they did and are marked with yellow arrows.

I never enter a trade if the Blau indicators are in opposition to the EMAs on the trade chart, or the Frontrunner. Notice also the Gann Chartist is Blue, which is an uptrend signal. These events signal Trend Resumption and the entry is seen at the yellow arrow “3”. At first these events seem like a lot to look for, but in time a simple glance is all that is needed.

190 If one entered at 1129.00 and exited about 1133.00, it would be a gain of 16 ticks or $200.00 per contract Runner. If one were trading 3 contracts and had taken 4 ticks on each of the first two contracts, the trade would have gained an additional

$100.00.

At the expected target level marked  “A”  on  the above chart, one must look to the indicators to confirm a Breakout. To verify The Breakout probability there are questions to ask; is there good steep separation between the EMAs, is there a Convergence or a Divergence on the Blau Indicators, is the 15 EMA on the 15 minute chart showing an uptrend, is the Frontrunner chart steep, shallow or reversing, and is there a Fib Alert? Analyzing these tools will say yes, or no, to

“holding, or folding”. Managing a trade and exits will be discussed completely.

A caution is to avoid the trade if there are only 2 or 3 ticks to the Swing High that set up the trade. Remember, this trade although ideal and is a classic should only  be  taken  if  Mark’s  Fib  work,  the  Trend Charts and the Frontrunner are in agreement.

Remember: Sell Lower Highs and buy Higher Lows!

The next chart below shows a Lower High Sell. It is a Swing Continuation Trade and equal in probability to Higher Low Buys!

A High was formed shown by the blue Gann Swing Chartist peak at the large white arrow. At  “A”, a Swing Low was established marked by a green Candlestick

reversal bar. This started a turnaround. Will this be a pause or reversal? A Swing Low says we are looking for a LHS. The 3 crossed above the 5 EMA, then the 15EMA seen at the yellow arrow. The Blau Histograms closed above the Signal Lines which turned up marked at the blue arrows. At  “B”  the  momentum resumed down. Thus, it is a momentum or Trend Continuation Trade. This is seen as the green Candlesticks changed to red. The 3 and 5 EMAs turned down and closed below the 15EMA. The Histograms dropped below the Signal Lines shown at the red arrows. This established the Lower High at  “B”  which  is  the Signal Bar. It is magnified by the close below the 15EMA. For confirmation and trigger, we must have a move past the Signal Bar. Some people use the low and the high of the Signal Bar for the trigger. Others use the open and the close for the entry trigger, but they usually are so near, it is not critical. I use the open and the close of the bar. We must also see, a close below Midpoint, hopefully at the edge. The entry here is on the wick of the Candlestick marked with a white  arrow  at  “C”. The 3 and the 5EMA turned sharply down giving added strength to this trade.

191 At the purple arrow, a Retest was formed at the Swing Low that initiated the trade.

This is the primary target. That is a Minor Retest as there was no corresponding Fib alert. The odds favor a Breakout and the momentum to continue down. The EMAs were steep and had wide separation. The Blau Indicators confirmed this as the Signal Lines were fairly steep and the Histograms were below the signals lines shown with red arrows. This said to stay in, or take a trade, if not already in. The trade gained 12 ticks and was still running when the screen shot was taken. This trade repeats time after time, after time, after time. They are most always

successful as was this one.

It is recommended when the tools confirm, enter as early as possible. This will help gain a few ticks before hitting the Price Retest Level, as there could always be a reversal. This assures some profit may be gained. There should be four ticks or more, from the PAC to the original Swing Low. This is a common mistake many traders make as they think The Breakout beyond the Retest strengthens the

outcome. This is not true, it does not! Price reverses often, a tick or two beyond the Retest, and then turns into a loser.

192 Remember, one must check the Fib Alert Levels to see if there is a Major Level near, or close to  “A”.  This would greatly influence the trade. Why enter a trade if the swing is at a Major Fib Level knowing a reversal is very possible? Even a Minor Fib Alert Level could end the down move.

We will see these trades daily again and again. Not only is it a bread and butter trade it is also the cake with frosting.