La agenda de las políticas migratorias de la región 57

In the m odern world, the political leadership in most societies acts in order to maintain the security o f their national state: " so much so that foreign and security policies have merged to the point w here statesmen and military strategists m ust collaborate

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closely. Therefore, it goes w ithout saying that military leaders are needed for expert advice, and it is possible that their considered opinion can strongly influence policy decisions. H ow ever, it is the responsibility o f the decision-makers to determine, if he can, "how much influence the military may be permitted to exert on foreign policy decisions and w hether military personnel should be permitted to state conflicting views in public"."

W hether the influence o f military leaders can be kept within bounds by a civilian governm ent will always be crucial to a nation's position in international affairs and to its own internal politics. Since Turkey was under outright military dictatorship betw een 1980-1983 and even after 1983 the military was effective in determining policies in the country, the civil-military relationship and the foreign policy-making o f the military regimes are im portant aspects o f this study.

Though there is a lack o f scholarly study dealing with the foreign policy form ulation o f the military regime because foreign policy analysts have not regard military regimes as another variable in foreign policy studies, Parakala, in a recent w ork, attem pted to provide a comparative framework for analysing the foreign policies o f the military regimes, which he concluded there does not exist w hat can be term ed as a typically military regime's' response to any particular foreign policy i s s u e ." Yet, there appear to be some similarities between military regimes regarding their attitudes

to national security and foreign policy issues. H ence Parakala's tw o hypotheses also seem relevant to the Turkish case.

H is first hypothesis, moving from the observation that the orientations and attitudes o f the military personnel tow ards the political activity are clearly different from those o f the civilian politicians, assumes that armed forces personnel, w hose main preoccupation is to defend the country, "perceive national interest and the means to effectively serve it differently", and as such "it is reasonable...to expect that once they com e to pow er...the country's foreign policy undergoes a change".

The second hypothesis is based on the observation that following the military coups, civilians' influences on key policy-making units are replaced by the military, and that the military regime usually restrict, if not totally prevent, "the participation o f hitherto influential groups in the decision-making process". Consequently, it is argued that this change in the decision-making process, also affects the regime's structure, and as the "regime structure is one o f the im portant determinants o f the country's foreign policy", it is "reasonable to expect that the transform ation o f a civilian regime into a military one affects a country's foreign policy"

Sure enough, "change" w as one o f the consistencies o f Turkish daily life during the 1980s. Starting w ith the military coup d'etat o f September 12, 1980, Turkey had experienced fundamental changes in every field. H er political structure, her economic system, social strata, cultural patterns, religious expressions, and o f course her foreign policy, all had their share from fast evolving developments. Turkey at the end o f the decade is a largely transformed country and the impetus for change is still visible. The transform ation o f various aspects o f Turkish foreign policy may not be discernible all the tim e for outsiders and the changes may not always be as mom entous as w e have w itness during the last part o f the 1980s and early 1990s across Europe and the former Soviet Union, but it has nevertheless been there.

A ccording to Dina A. Zinnes change, another w ord for "transformation", implies that "something is happening through time" and that "what w as true at one

point is different at a subsequent time point".10^ In this sense, "change" has becom e one o f the w atchw ords o f Turkish foreign policy, certainly after 1983 w hen civilian governm ent to o k over power.

A change in any policy is usually based on a change in ideas, on rethinking or reappraisal, and a variety o f factors may have impact on specific foreign policy

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reappraisals or changes. W hen and what factors determine w hether and to what extend pressure for change in policy will in fact produce a change in hitherto rigid policy patterns is an im portant issue in foreign policy th eo ry .10^ I f w e relate this problem , together with the above definition, to our study it is fairly obvious that a study o f change in Turkish foreign policy means an analysis o f how and why differences occurred through time, that is during the period under consideration.

In theory, a reappraisal o f ideas may occur because of:

-changes in the composition o f the policy-making system; that is shifts in dom estic politics may place new people in positions o f pow er and these new policy­ m akers may have "normative, descriptive or theoretical ideas that differ from those o f their predecessors", thus leadership change may also imply a policy change. 10^ In this context, Mr. Ozal's "different" ideas and "vision" about various aspects o f governm ental policies, including foreign policy, made the country susceptible to change once he had taken over political power.

-changes in the balance o f pow er within the policy-making system; that is if the policy-making system contains advocates o f competing policies, the balance o f pow er betw een the camps may determine which policy will be pursued.106 The struggle within the executive over Turkey’s policy during the G ulf Crisis is a good example o f this and thus will be studied in detail.

-finally, changes in environmental circumstances may bring about foreign policy reappraisals. It should not be forgotten that the international system and the relationship betw een the state and conditions existent within that system determines how the state will behave.107 Also it has been emphasized that nations under pressure

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adapt to changing conditions in their environm ent.iUO Thus, systemic changes, for

example, may generate an im portant impetus for change by altering the conditions for foreign policy.100 In this context, the end o f the Cold W ar and the subsequent transform ation o f world politics w ere the most im portant systemic changes that had taken place since the emergence o f the bipolar system after the Second W orld War, thus as such it provided trem endous momentum for national policy changes as well. System transform ations may also involve the extension o f new - or abandonm ent o f previous - commitments and therefore signify a change in the goals and/or objectives o f participating acto rs.110 Turkey's new commitments during the 1980s tow ards the B lack Sea Econom ic C ooperation Region and transform ation o f the Regional C ooperation for D evelopm ent to the Econom ic Cooperation Organization and her relations with the European Community, may constitute ample examples to this.

M oreover, as stated earlier, nations also take into account the way in which the international environment responds to their policies. Accordingly, the "spill-back process" or the negative feedback from the international environment may create pressures for change.111 As a result, the answers to the questions o f w hether W estern pressure had an impact on Turkey's democratization-human rights policies, and o f w hether the negative feedback Turkey received from European countries and organizations after the 1980 coup d'etat forced her to look for new areas o f linkage, will be particularly interesting.

While the first tw o categories o f above-mentioned possible determinants o f change are related to the internal domain o f the country in question, the latter is to the international. Since the governments make foreign policy in the context o f domestic as well as international pressures, studying change in foreign policy should involve an understanding o f both the domestic and external environments and the interaction betw een the tw o .112 Therefore, we must also look at the institutional structure by w hich governm ents make and implement their foreign policies, and arguably at the

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w hole domestic process as it also affects their policy-m aking.i i J In this context, the type o f political or economic regime in a state can be crucial in determining foreign policy actions.114 M oreover w e also have to look at the linkages between the tw o as

the national and international systems function in such a way as to continually reinforce each other, ^ ^ and no m atter w hat the state o f international politics, the impact o f an action "on a polity will vary according to particular nations, structures and groups to w hich the polity is linked and the nature o f that link. N ations do not react to the international system as a whole, but to the way it is reflected in particular actors with w hom they have most contact". In connection with this, Turkey's vocational linkages with the W est in general and E urope in particular will be emphasized in this study, w ith particular references to the effects o f European criticism on Turkish decision-m akers and their responses to them. However, while doing this, it should not be forgotten that the linkage patterns, like foreign policy patterns, can be highly

117 dynamic and susceptible to change.

H ence in the context o f changes and linkages, this study will examine the various factors which brought about changes in Turkish foreign policy, and which may be broadly categorised as domestic, regional and international ones. These factors include disillusionment with Turkey's W estern allies after 1974 and a desire for new political friends; a desire for new economic opportunities because o f inadequate econom ic benefits from the W est; the new attitudes from domestic factors shaping foreign policy, particularly the recent visibility o f Islam in popular attitudes and governm ental circles; the end o f the Cold W ar and changes happening through Eastern E urope and the form er Soviet Union; and Mr. Ozal's own peculiar understanding o f foreign policy and w hat should be given priority in the Turkish foreign policy agenda, will be discussed through the text in detail.

N eedless to say, one o f this study's principal contentions is that the type o f political and economic regime in a state can be crucial in determining its foreign policy. Further it is acknowledged that these tw o - domestic environment and foreign policy o f a country - are intimately related and that each serves better to explain and shed light upon the other. Thus it will also be shown that the peculiarities o f the Turkish governing system, her chosen economic strategy, and the "Turkish style o f democracy" have all had im portant effects on determining her foreign policy. M oreover, it will be

illustrated that this was not only because any country's foreign policy is a by-product o r reflection o f its dom estic political system, but also because it is affected by other states' responses to a particular country's perceived political system, which also crucially affects the way the actions o f other states are interpreted.