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Introduction

The present study examined all 951 citizen initiatives that have appeared on statewide ballots from 1974 to 2004. As in the past, the western states were the principal users of this device, accounting for almost two-thirds of the total. Two states, California and Oregon, led the rest with 276 measures between them. By contrast, the eastern and southern states accounted for only 16 percent during this period in which 426 measures were approved and 525 were rejected. Of these, only the southern states approved a majority of the initiatives proposed, 42 of 71. The state-by-state and regional distribution of these measures is reflected in Table 17 and Figures 3 and 4.

Table 17: Initiative Population & Approval by State, 1974-2004

State Freq % Pass % State Freq % Pass %

Alaska 35 3.7 19 54.3 Missouri 32 3.4 17 53.1

Arizona 46 4.8 24 52.2 Montana 48 5.0 25 52.1

Arkansas 24 2.5 10 41.7 Nebraska 21 2.2 9 42.9

California 145 15.2 61 42.1 Nevada 18 1.9 8 44.4

Colorado 82 8.6 30 36.6 North Dakota 41 4.3 16 39.0

Florida 28 2.9 23 82.1 Ohio 29 3.0 6 20.1

Idaho 16 1.7 10 62.5 Oklahoma 17 1.8 9 52.9

Illinois 1 0.1 1 100 Oregon 131 13.8 50 38.2

Maine 35 3.7 17 48.6 South Dakota 33 3.5 15 45.6

Massachusetts 44 4.6 22 50.0 Utah 16 1.7 3 18.8

Michigan 30 3.2 12 40.0 Washington 70 7.4 36 51.4

Mississippi 2 0.2 0 0.0 Wyoming 7 0.7 3 42.9

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Figure 3: Initiative Population by Region, 1974-2004

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Fiscal matters and government operational concerns dominated the subject matter of all initiatives at 21 and 20 percent, respectively. Public morality, resources and environment, and economic regulation each constituted more than 11 percent of the remaining measures. Together, these five areas represented almost 80 percent of the initiative population. Passage rates of subject categories ranged from a high of 73 percent for criminal justice issues to a low of 31 percent for economic regulation. Only five categories exceeded a 50 percent approval rate, and only three exceeded 55 percent. Figure 5 and Figure 6 provide additional detail regarding subject matter prevalence and passage.

Multivariate analysis revealed that subject content is a significant factor in predicting the likelihood of passage. The base model reduces errors by some 14 percent, with the number of correctly predicted outcomes at almost 62 percent.86 Half of the categories were statistically significant, indicating that they are meaningful in the context of the relationships that exist in the initiative population under scrutiny.87 As failure is predicted at a significantly higher rate than approval (74 versus 47 percent), it is not surprising that all such variables were negatively associated, reflecting reduced odds of passage in those subject areas by margins of 50 percent or greater.

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The Government Operations category was dropped from the model in order to avoid the dummy variable trap. It was selected since it had the greatest frequency and variation, and because it was a unique category unrelated to policy issues. Trials using other variables improved the model by less than an additional two percent.

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Recall that the present study examined the entire population of citizen initiatives that qualified for the ballot between 1974 and 2004. As such, the inferential concept of statistical significance with regard to a sample did not apply, and was substituted with the ‘meaningfulness’ of association.

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Figure 5: Initiative Population by Subject, 1974-2004

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Most ballot measures were statutory in nature. While some states do not allow for this type of initiative, those that do experience a greater number of measures that qualify for the ballot. However, in most states, there is little difference in terms of what can be incorporated into the constitution versus what must be statutory in nature. Though the signature threshold is generally a little higher, the benefit of constitutional status is that it cannot be amended by the legislature.88 It is not surprising, then, that most amendments addressed governmental operations and fiscal matters, with public morality close behind. The bulk of proposed policy mandates were statutory in form, 425 to 193, whereas a majority of governance reforms were constitutional in nature, 241 to 197. Both relationships were significant and moderate in strength.

Most states provide for a direct initiative process, whereas a few allow for only indirect measures that must go through the legislature. Not surprisingly, initiative use is heaviest in direct states, constituting some 83 percent of all measures. Of even greater interest is how the type of process affects the type of measure that reaches the ballot. Governance reforms comprise 48 percent of measures in direct states, but only 36 percent in indirect states, whereas policy mandates constitute 63 and 74 percent, respectively. Given the weak, but significant, correlations between these variables, it is unclear whether this reflects reluctance on the part of legislators to allow for such reforms.

88 _{However, two states, Arizona and California, have effectively provided citizen-approved statutes} constitutional status. These super-statutes cannot be amended without the approval of the electorate.

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A host of controls were introduced into the model in an effort to identify other factors that influence voter behavior. Three additional models, which included sets of economic, political, and social factors, were tested. Only the political model improved on the accuracy of the base model, reducing predictive error by almost 22 percent. However, the social and economic models also made education less significant. Only one additional variable was significant: legislative insulation. The association with this index reflects that a greater degree of control retained by the legislature over policymaking (or, alternatively, the less that the initiative process enables the people to make law themselves) appears to increase the odds of initiative approval by about 11 percent. Legislative professionalism, while not significant, appears to have a strong positive association, given that the odds of passage exceed 127 percent with a one unit increase in this index. Region was also insignificant, but indicated that the odds of passage in the east and south increased by 54 and 72 percent, respectively, relative to the west, but that the odds in the Midwest were reduced by over 17 percent. The effect of region is further examined in Figure 7 and Figure 8, as well as the hypotheses set forth below.

What follows is an effort to understand which factors motivate initiative usage by examining the characteristics of measures that are proposed and enacted by voters in initiative states. The findings for each hypothesis are presented here and discussed at length in the next chapter.

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Figure 7: Initiative Subject by Region, 1974-2004

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