Análisis comparado

Risk or uncertainty in agriculture has been a concern since the 1970s and is increasingly becoming more so due to changes in agriculture and the world we operate in (Young, 1979). Governments have been responding by forming policies and regulations aimed at reducing and controlling variations in production, prices and income at farm level. However, these policies that are aimed at managing risk have also contributed to risk in agriculture as they are a source of institutional risk (Young, 1979).

To have a better understanding of risk, a number of studies have been done across the world on agricultural risk management. Most of this work has stressed on risk analysis to determine how farmers should behave or respond to risk and although less, some work has been done to understand how farmers perceive risk and the risk management strategies they are using (Flaten et al., 2005). The approach of understanding risk behaviour through perception rather than predicting it has been commended by scholars as a better approach to understanding risk among farmers (Flaten et al., 2005; Yoe, 2011).

Studies to understand risk perception have been done by different researchers in different parts of the world, indicating different perceptions towards risk. A study conducted in 1992 on New Zealand farmers indicated that there was a general consensus among most farmers in New Zealand (both livestock and horticultural farmers) perceiving market risk, specifically changes in product prices as the most important sources of risk (Martin, 1996). More recently, it was found that New Zealand dairy farmers have added global supply and demand, technological changes and skills of people that are involved in their farming

businesses as other important risk sources (Shadbolt & Olubode-Awasola, 2013). Harwood et al. (1999) found that farmers in the United States perceived commodity price risk, production risk and risk due to changes in government laws and regulations to be most important. Four years later, Hall et al. (2003) found that beef farmers in Texas and Nebraska perceived severe droughts and varying cattle prices as the most important sources of risk. On the other hand Meuwissen et al. (2001) found that Dutch livestock farmers perceived price and production risks as the most important sources of risk. Differences in risk perception with different locations can be noted. Further investigation of the Dutch livestock farmers revealed a

difference in risk perception between different types of farmers; dairy farmers perceived price risk as the most important while mixed farmers considered production risk as the most

important one (Meuwissen et al., 2001). This indicated a difference in risk perception based on farming system as expected.

In developing countries where access to information that can forecast prices, market trends and weather patterns is limited, agriculture is even more uncertain for farmers (Aditto et al., 2012). This makes agricultural risk complex and understanding it is important not only for farmers but for policy makers too. A study done to understand risk and risk management in Thailand as an example of a developing country revealed that the farmers generally perceived market risk as the most important source of risk.

Although some are similar such as the farmers in the United States and the Dutch mixed farmers who perceive production risk as the most important, differences in risk perceptions can be seen in these studies. This is evidence that risk perception is affected by geographical location and farm type as noted by (G. R. Patrick, Wilson, Barry, Boggess, & Young, 1985). This study also indicates the individualistic nature of risk perceptions as echoed in other studies (Flaten et al., 2005; Wilson, Dahlgran, & Conklin, 1993). Farmers’ perceptions of risk vary between individuals based on variation in factors affecting the farmers’ operating environments such as geographical location or type of farming enterprise. The severity of risk differs with type of farm and farming system in use, geographic location, weather conditions and government policies (Aditto et al., 2012).These studies also

demonstrate how risk is changing over time which can be attributed to changing policies and market liberalization and industrialization (Meuwissen et al., 2001).

Since perceptions of risk are changing, it is therefore true to say choices of risk management strategies amongst farmers are equally changing because the perceptions on risk drive the risk behaviour (Wauters, van Winsen, de Mey, & Lauwers, 2014). It is therefore not surprising that risk perceptions will equally differ among farmers. In the study done in Thailand, the most important risk management strategies were those related to production and financial strategies as compared to market strategies (Aditto et al., 2012). This finding is similar to what was reported in another developing country, Ethiopia where study of risk management strategies amongst small-scale farmers revealed that diversification and financial risk management strategies were more important than marketing strategies

(Gebreegziabher & Tadesse, 2014). These two study findings are contrary to what was found among farmers in New Zealand where few farmers considered diversification as the most

planning strategies and maintaining feed as some of the most important risk management strategies (Shadbolt & Olubode-Awasola, 2013). Meuwissen et al. (2001) found that use of insurance was one of the most important risk management strategy among Dutch livestock farmers. However, it is important to note that perceptions of risk management strategies are very personal and one should be careful not to generalise them (Meuwissen et al., 2001). With these differences in risk perceptions and risk management strategies based on location and type of farming systems, it becomes necessary to look at risk in Africa and Zambia.