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Bases metodológicas

CAPÍTULO 3. BASES METODOLÓGICAS.

3.4. ANÁLISIS DE VARIABILIDAD

3.4.2. Análisis de generalizabilidad

45Hidden Harm – Responding to the needs of problem drug misusers, Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, 2003.

46Hidden Harm – Responding to the needs of problem drug misusers, Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, June 2003.

47Inter-Personal Violence Module of the British Crime Survey, Home Office, 1995 (the fullest data we have on the prevalence

of domestic violence.)

48P1(E) quarterly homelessness data, ODPM,

49Mirrlees-Black (1999). Marsh et al, 2001found that 34 per cent of lone parents reported that arguments in the last year

of the relationship had led to physical violence.

50Misspent Youth, Audit commission, 1996.

51The mental health of young offenders, Mental health foundation, 2002.

52Thematic Review of Young Prisoners, HM Chief Inspector of Prisons, 1997.

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When such individuals have children of their own, these children are therefore far more likely to live in poverty. They are also at high risk of offending themselves. One study found that 63 per cent of boys with convicted fathers were themselves convicted, compared with 30 per cent of the remainder.54In this way, poverty and criminality can be transmitted

between generations, from parent to child.

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Early preventative intervention to combat anti-social behaviour and youth crime benefits children’s long-term life chances as cognitive criminal responses are reformed and non-criminal behaviour introduced earlier. This reduces the economic and social costs to both the individual and society as a whole (with savings of £200,000 per lower risk, non drug- using offender and much higher costs for high risk offenders)55 and prevents the inter-

generational transfer of offending behaviour to their offspring.

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Existing research from both the UK and the US indicates that it is possible to identify at an early stage the children and young people at risk of poor outcomes, including those engaging in offending or substance misuse. Furthermore the existing evidence base suggests that early intervention can prevent the development of patterns of serious or persistent criminal behaviour later on in life56, bringing numerous benefits to both the short and long

term life-chances and experience of the child, and also to society as a whole.

T h e G o v e r n m e n t ’ s a i m

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The Government wants to build a secure, ordered and stable society, to enhance opportunities for all, and to ensure that the protection and security of the public are maintained and enhanced. It wants to help create a decent, civil society in which people can shape their own lives and participate fully in their local community. The Government’s key objectives to deliver this include:

preventing crime and the fear of crime, tackling the reasons behind crime, reducing re-offending and dealing with offenders;

building stronger and more active communities and reducing anti-social behaviour;

CHILD

Living in Poverty Greater risk of offending Offender Poor later-life outcomes Parenthood ADULT Living in Poverty

Chart 5.5: Inter-generational transfer of offending behaviour

54The development of Offending and Anti-Social Behaviour from Childhood: Key findings from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent

Development, D. Farrington, 1995.

55Home Office estimated discounted costs of a criminal career using HORS 217 The Economic and Social Costs of Crime;

the Offenders Index longitudinal data; and Labour Force Survey 2001 data.

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reducing the harms that drugs cause to society – communities, individuals and their families – by preventing today’s young people from becoming tomorrow’s problematic drug users. This involves reducing supply, reducing drug-related crime and its impact on communities and reducing drug use and drug-related offending through treatment and support; and

tackling domestic violence through working to prevent it from happening in the first place, working with victims and offenders to prevent it recurring, providing increased legal protection for victims and their families and providing support for victims to rebuild their lives.

Pr o g r e s s a n d n e x t s t e p s

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In addition to dealing with those already convicted of offences, the Government has increasingly focused on early intervention measures to try to prevent offences occurring in the first place, or to divert young offenders away from career criminality. A wide range of programmes to help children who offend or are at high risk of offending has been rolled out nationally. Research suggests that early intervention is far more efficient than later measures. Programmes directed at diverting young people at risk and parenting programmes can save over £10 for every £1 invested. This should be compared to general investment in policing and work to reduce adult re-offending which returns between £1-£3 for every £1 invested.

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Chart 5.6 sets out when in childhood children are likely to commence various types of offending behaviour, and the percentage of children who escape from these offending patterns compared to those who go on to develop more severe criminal behaviour. Chart 5.7 outlines the support currently available for children and the correlation of intervention with the onset of patterns of offending behaviour.

Child crime and