ANÁLISIS DE REDES SOCIALES

Though a few years ago many experts had denied that significant reductions of GHG from the transport sector can be achieved there are also a number of other studies that developed scenarios for transport until 2050, which achieve reductions in similar orders than we have presented in our analysis i.e. between -30% and -70%.

One example are the scenarios from the International Energy Agency from 2009 as well [IEA 2009]. Though these scenarios are global in nature they indicate also some numbers for OECD-Europe. In particular, it seems that the 450 ppm scenario corresponds to the IEA Blue Map scenario, which focuses on efficiency and new technologies but not on travel demand changes, while the 400 ppm scenario is closer to the concept of the IEA Blue Map Shift scenario, which includes efficiency, new technologies and modal shift.

A scenario that even goes further comes from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency [PBL 2009]. In this scenario, despite expecting higher transport demand growth rates than we foresee the reductions achieved in Europe would be -80% GHG emissions of transport until 2050 compared with 1990. This is achieved by faster and stronger penetration of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into the passenger car fleet than we modelled and by stronger influences on transport demand i.e. reduction of volumes and modal-shift towards rail transport. However, the general structure of the scenario is very similar: passenger surface transport is reducing GHG emissions most, followed by freight transport and air transport only ends at the levels of 1990. The strongest effect is expected from low-carbon fuels followed by efficiency improvements and then by volume/mode shift.

CONCLUSIONS

Including transport in the EU-ETS is not sufficient to transform it into a low carbon and climate-friendly activity. The time scales of market-based choices (one to four years), to which an ETS system belongs, are too short to introduce the required changes of technologies, organisations and behaviour and the time lag between adapted choices and their impacts on GHG emissions is often too large so that new choices have to be anticipated

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23 20 26 20 29 20 32 20 35 20 38 20 41 20 44 20 47 20 50 [Mt  CO 2 /y e ar ]

Contributions  to changes  of CO2 emissions  (TTW) in 450 ppm scenario Synergies Off demand shift Off fuel switch Off efficiency Off biofuels Full 450ppm 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23 20 26 20 29 20 32 20 35 20 38 20 41 20 44 20 47 20 50 [Mt  CO 2 /y e ar ]

Contributions  to changes  of CO2 emissions  (TTW) in 400 ppm scenario Synergies Off demand shift Off fuel switch Off efficiency Off biofuels Full 400ppm

years or even decades before they become effective in reducing the GHG emissions of transport.

Thus besides including transport in the EU-ETS, a package of transport-focussed policy measures has to be implemented, including regulation, taxation, R&D support and information campaigns. One main issue is that policy-makers have to make it very clear to decision-makers in companies and households that climate protection policies in the transport sector are not a short-term policy fashion, but will be pursued forcefully and over the medium and long term.

The 2°C scenario results of implementing 22 different measures for transport have shown that transport energy demand can be reduced by -27% and -45% in the 450 ppm and the 400 ppm scenarios, respectively, until 2050 compared with 2005 and that this can feasibly be done with still moderate policy packages. In terms of transport CO2 emissions reductions

until 2050, this is equivalent to CO2 reductions of -30% and -52% compared with 2005.

The impact analysis of the different measures’ contributions to reductions has revealed that, in the short to medium term (3 to 20 years), energy efficiency measures contribute the largest reductions. In particular, CO2 emission limits for cars and light duty vehicles play a

large role in reducing the energy demand and CO2 emissions of transport. As a side-effect,

they also reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, which could already become an important issue within this time horizon due to growing scarcity and sharply increasing oil prices.

In the medium- to long-term perspective (20 to 40 years), two other measures play a larger role. These are the fuel switch (i.e. the introduction of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into transport) and the demand shift (i.e. improved logistics and competitiveness of rail as well as including transport in an ETS system with CO2 certificate prices well above 100

€/t CO2). Both need strong political support, the former via the support of R&D and early

market diffusion (e.g. feebates) and the latter by supporting the creation of an interoperable European rail network featuring a backbone of high-speed rail for passenger and dedicated freight links at bottlenecks together with improvements of intermodal logistics as well as including transport in a global CO2 ETS system.

Considering that the emerging policy objective is to reduce GHG emissions by -80% by 2050, it seems that our estimated reductions of transport emissions would still fall short compared with what is needed for climate protection. However, there are both some supporting trends of CO2 reductions not fully operationalized in our analysis and other

additional policies that could be realised to achieve the climate policy target. As a first trend, re-urbanisation should be mentioned. Cities are becoming greener with many attractions in terms of culture, education, childcare and healthcare services so that a growing number of people will move back into cities from the suburbs or even rural areas. Since cities are able to offer more carbon lean transport than suburbs or rural areas, this trend will help to reduce CO2 emissions from transport. Of course, this also needs support in the sense that cities

have to promote multi-modality, i.e. increased use of bikes, bike- and car-sharing systems, the latter ideally based on a fleet of highly efficient conventional or electric city cars and both

combined with a comfortable and reliable public transport system. It must be possible to use all of these transport options with just one mobility card. If necessary, e.g. to fund the set-up of such a system and to add a push measure, city tolls should be considered to reflect the scarcity of infrastructure and urban space as well as clean urban air.

In addition, a number of soft factors also play a role. One example is the advertising strategies of European car manufacturers who tend to invest more in advertising fast, powerful cars than they do in adverts for fuel-efficient small and midsize cars [DENA 2009]. If this past trend also reflects the future development strategy of European car manufacturers, they run the risk of losing the market segment of fuel-efficient cars to Asian manufacturers, who have clearly defined the small, efficient and still affordable car as their main development goal. Given the constraints of limited fossil fuel resources and the need for climate protection, this represents precisely the car market segment with the largest demand growth in the future.

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