Capítulo III Problemas y Objetivos
OBJETIVOS IMPACTO SOBRE EL
4.03. Análisis del Diagrama de Estrategias
Two major pursuits are in the center of the development of financial systems of the present time. The extension of the financial access to underprivileged ones with plethora of positive externalities performed by MFIs, and an aspiration to tame the innovations that threaten the stability of the global financial system, impacted by globalization running amok. The pace of regulation is lagging behind in both areas and new set of rules and instruments how to exercise them is therefore conditional for the future of microfinance as well as structured finance sector.
While stability of international finance is a costly public good requiring macro- prudential regulatory oversight, the ethos of microfinance needs guidance in order to prevent corruption by pure market logics, which would lead to loss of the battle for social finance in emerging markets.
83
IECS – GMFA, the proposed tandem mechanism capable of transformation of negative into positive externalities, monetizes cost of complexity and creates collateral securing private investment into microfinance and thus offsets excess with need, linking seemingly incompatible sectors of microfinance and modern structured finance.
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93 Annex A
Descriptive statistics for H1 - H2 calculations
a. Abreviations for variables
MPI: Microfinance Penetration Index
HEA: Lifetime risk of maternal death in %
LAB: Labor market participation of women as % of total labor force
EDU: Empowerment represented by female secondary school enrollment in %
HDI: Human Development Index 2010
MGDPI: Millenium Development Goals Index 2010
94
c. Dot plot graphs for variables for 55 countries in the sample
95 Annex B
Regression analysis and tests for heteroskedasticity H1 - H2
a. Multicollinearity analysis results
b. Regression analysis results
96 d. White tests for heteroskedasticity
97 Annex C
Regression analysis and tests for heteroskedasticity H3 – H5
a. Descriptive statistics of used variables
b. Multicollinearity of variables
PAR PROFIT RYGLP ODA GDP
1.0000 -0.2133 -0.0814 0.3161 -0.1751 PAR 1.0000 0.0234 -0.5969 -0.2748 PROFIT
1.0000 0.1150 -0.0175 RYGLP 1.0000 0.1751 ODA
1.0000 GDP
INF LAB POP CVI VIX
0.0529 0.4577 0.2109 -0.0906 0.0326 PAR -0.2564 -0.0354 -0.5839 0.0062 0.0678 PROFIT 0.0445 0.0022 0.0814 -0.0152 0.0241 RYGLP 0.2954 0.2203 0.7475 0.0115 -0.0493 ODA 0.4981 -0.3334 0.3175 0.3578 0.1058 GDP 1.0000 -0.2608 0.4125 0.1041 0.0574 INF 1.0000 -0.3702 -0.0268 -0.0908 LAB 1.0000 0.0144 0.0400 POP 1.0000 -0.0113 CVI 1.0000 VIX
98 c. Regression Analysis of PAR – CVI
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 PAR
time series by group Actual and fitted PAR fitted
actual
d. Regression Analysis of PROFIT – CVI
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 PROFIT
time series by group Actual and fitted PROFIT fitted
actual
e. Regression analysis RYGLP – CVI
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 RYGLP
time series by group Actual and fitted RYGLP fitted
actual
99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 PAR
time series by group Actual and fitted PAR fitted
actual
g. Regression analysis PROFIT – VIX
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 PROFIT
time series by group Actual and fitted PROFIT fitted
actual
e. Regression analysis RYGLP – VIX
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2 3 4 5 6 RYGLP
time series by group Actual and fitted RYGLP fitted
100 Annex D
a. Descriptive statistics of Mixmarket data used for calculation of MPI
Stat. Variables GLP Active Borrowers Depositors Deposits
Mean 826889992,28 902472 3357195 142390456,67 Mean error 254949647,59 364312 1355239 43902329,32 Median 132489448,00 81000 301320 22814682,95 Standard Deviation 2661752465,18 3803526 14149115 458353774,50 Kurtosis 60,36 50 50 60,36 Skewness 7,16 7 7 7,16 Minimum 197229,00 89 331 33962,83 Maximum 24602880471,00 31947925 118846281 4236616017,11 Observations number 109,00 109 109 109,00
101 Annex E
Data sources for H1 – H2
Country MPI Inf
% Oda % Pop % Hea % Lab % Edu % HDI MDGPI GLP
USD Borrowers Pop Depositors
Deposits USD AFG 1,93 0,44 0,41 0,03 0,03 0,15 0,00 0,37 0,00 222521466,00 317088 28397812 1179567 38318196,45 ALB 2,90 0,13 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,42 0,88 0,75 3,50 778915321,00 69675 3150143 259191 134129218,28 AGO -1,45 0,42 0,00 0,03 0,03 0,46 0,25 0,50 2,00 9687540,00 9146 19549124 34023 1668194,39 ARM 3,93 0,15 0,04 0,00 0,00 0,47 0,93 0,72 5,00 528557428,00 276603 2963496 1028963 91017589,10 BGD 4,29 0,20 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,40 0,55 0,51 2,50 2777372730,00 22212978 151125475 82632278 478263584,11 BIH 2,98 0,09 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,40 0,91 0,73 2,50 627239901,00 125269 3845929 466001 108010710,95 BGR 0,80 0,10 0,00 -0,01 0,00 0,47 0,87 0,78 0,50 672548465,00 9155 7534289 34057 115812845,67 BFA 1,81 0,43 0,12 0,03 0,02 0,48 0,18 0,33 5,00 143198344,00 140598 15540284 523025 24658754,84 BDI 0,87 0,34 0,31 0,03 0,03 0,52 0,21 0,35 0,50 28618261,00 14169 9232753 52709 4928064,54 KHM 3,97 0,22 0,07 0,01 0,01 0,50 0,44 0,53 5,50 1161521581,00 1238312 14364931 4606521 200014016,25 CMR 1,48 0,36 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,46 0,43 0,49 3,50 239118429,00 136717 20624343 508587 41176193,47 TCD -1,74 0,45 0,06 0,03 0,06 0,45 0,15 0,34 2,50 6791884,00 2041 11720781 7593 1169562,42 CHL 1,98 0,14 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,40 0,91 0,81 5,50 1594314675,00 231434 17150760 860934 274540987,04 CHN 0,31 0,12 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,45 0,83 0,69 7,00 24602880471,00 2487049 1337705000 9251822 4236616017,11 COL 2,93 0,20 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,42 1,01 0,71 5,00 4398620282,00 1672823 46444798 6222902 757442412,56 ZAR 0,11 0,43 0,29 0,03 0,03 0,50 0,28 0,30 2,50 95577145,00 65880 4111715 245074 16458384,37 CRI 1,06 0,16 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,36 1,03 0,77 5,00 71073076,00 26419 4669685 98279 12238783,69 DOM 2,93 0,22 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,39 0,81 0,70 4,50 586173900,00 368390 10016797 1370411 100939145,58 ECU 3,09 0,21 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,40 0,88 0,72 7,00 1711045792,00 605017 15001072 2250663 294642085,38 EGY 1,54 0,23 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,24 0,71 0,66 6,00 249327306,00 752230 78075705 2798296 42934162,09 SLV 2,62 0,20 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,41 0,65 0,68 5,00 388825226,00 153087 6218195 569484 66955703,92 ETH 1,47 0,31 0,13 0,02 0,01 0,47 0,32 0,39 5,00 111172068,00 723562 87095281 2691651 19143830,11 GMB 2,83 0,38 0,13 0,03 0,02 0,48 0,53 0,44 4,50 125016152,00 5510 1680640 20497 21527781,37 GTM 2,31 0,32 0,01 0,03 0,01 0,38 0,62 0,58 5,50 186496134,00 291059 14341576 1082739 32114634,27 HND 2,42 0,27 0,04 0,02 0,00 0,34 0,81 0,63 7,00 273362032,00 148164 7621204 551170 47072941,91 IND 2,56 0,22 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,25 0,60 0,55 4,50 5404049532,00 31947925 1205624648 118846281 930577329,41 JAM 1,34 0,16 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,45 0,94 0,73 2,50 21119781,00 20713 2701200 77052 3636826,29 JOR 2,69 0,25 0,04 0,02 0,00 0,18 0,89 0,70 6,00 152261735,00 180493 6046000 671434 26219470,77 KAZ 0,53 0,22 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,49 0,96 0,74 4,50 164433623,00 54250 16323287 201810 28315469,88 KGZ 3,62 0,27 0,09 0,01 0,00 0,43 0,83 0,62 6,00 231427659,00 365877 5447900 1361062 39851842,88 LBN 1,46 0,15 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,26 0,86 0,74 6,00 40293238,00 38301 4341092 142480 6938495,58 MWI 2,48 0,44 0,19 0,03 0,03 0,52 0,31 0,41 5,00 63869725,00 335526 15013694 1248157 10998366,65 MLI 1,96 0,46 0,12 0,03 0,04 0,35 0,31 0,34 4,00 90436167,00 177907 13985961 661814 15573107,96 MEX 3,06 0,20 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,37 0,92 0,77 4,50 2043575773,00 5264046 117886404 19582251 351903748,11 MDA 1,55 0,12 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,49 0,89 0,65 3,50 97856374,00 20640 3562062 76781 16850867,60 MNG 4,45 0,23 0,05 0,02 0,00 0,46 0,92 0,66 5,00 938338018,00 391730 2712738 1457236 161581806,70 MOZ 1,02 0,38 0,21 0,02 0,02 0,54 0,23 0,32 3,00 160410961,00 37886 23967265 140936 27622767,48 NIC 3,36 0,24 0,08 0,01 0,00 0,38 0,73 0,59 5,00 301370010,00 304322 5822209 1132078 51895915,72 NER 0,68 0,49 0,14 0,04 0,04 0,31 0,11 0,30 2,00 16678859,00 54091 15893746 201219 2872099,52 NGA 0,64 0,40 0,01 0,03 0,03 0,43 0,41 0,46 1,50 108357876,00 622986 159707780 2317508 18659226,25 PER 4,06 0,20 0,00 0,01 0,00 0,45 0,91 0,73 5,50 7000787899,00 3270726 29262830 12167101 1205535676,21 RWA 1,44 0,41 0,18 0,03 0,02 0,52 0,32 0,43 3,00 33507013,00 81000 10836732 301320 5769907,64 SEN 2,19 0,37 0,07 0,03 0,02 0,44 0,35 0,47 3,00 326781120,00 164159 12950564 610671 56271708,86 SRB 2,25 0,09 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,44 0,92 0,77 5,00 680902281,00 112838 7291436 419757 117251372,79 SYR -0,68 0,23 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,15 0,73 0,65 5,00 27141634,00 20592 21532647 76602 4673789,37