6. ANÁLISIS DE LA PRÁCTICA DOCENTE
6.2 Análisis 2: Formamos los nombres de las rondas
In 2007, we expect CDG, MAD and VIE will have some excess demand, but also some slots available at other times and / or unaffected by the capacity constraint.42 As noted above,
market-based slot allocation mechanisms will lead to higher prices for peak slots and, in the case of primary mechanisms, could also involve off-peak charges falling from the present levels. This could result in some additional movements at the airport, either because new services are introduced in response to lower charges at off-peak times or, perhaps more likely, existing peak services are switched to off-peak slots (and the peak slots are taken up by other services).43
41 Charter flights only account for 0.2 per cent of the total number of movements at LHR.
42 At CDG there will be some excess demand for much of the day, but for several day time hours slots are available
(for example there may be excess demand for arrival slots in a particular hour, but some departure slots are unallocated); at MAD and VIE excess demand will be restricted to certain peak times.
43 A further possibility is that the greater availability of peak slots will allow airlines to launch new, regular services
97 In addition, slot utilisation may increase, especially as a result of higher posted prices and auctions since these require airlines to enter into a binding agreement to pay the relevant price. Currently, typically around 6 to 8 per cent of allocated slots are not used in airports with limited excess demand. We would expect that to reduce to around 2 per cent following the introduction of market mechanisms.44 Slot utilisation may also increase under secondary
trading if this results in holders of peak-time slots retiming their services to off-peak times and selling the peak-time slots: this would imply an increase in off-peak movements (and no change in peak movements).
Key statistics regarding the current use of slots at the three airports are shown in Table 6.5 below.
Table 6.5
Current Usage Statistics: CDG, MAD and VIE
CDG MAD VIE Movements (%) Pax per movement Movements (%) Pax per movement Movements (%) Pax per movement Hub alliance short-haul 39.0% 85 40.7% 101 61.7% 58 Hub alliance long-haul 12.3% 166 4.1% 193 6.3% 121 Other alliances short-hl 12.7% 74 7.8% 78 5.4% 84 Other alliances long-hl 3.0% 171 1.1% 159 0.0% Low cost 2.1% 112 1.1% 117 0.0% 115 Charter 5.1% 163 1.1% 155 8.2% 149 Other short-haul 19.7% 46 41.2% 71 17.0% 49 Other long-haul 6.0% 147 2.8% 142 1.4% 114 Total 100.0% 97 100.0% 93 100.0% 70
Source: Schedules data, NERA estimates
The impacts of market-based slot allocation mechanisms will vary by airport. Our assessment is that the key impacts will be the following:
CDG
•
The hub alliance (Skyteam) would slightly increase its slot holdings at the airport but not by much; we believe that its excess demand for slots at the airport is limited. Long haul services by the alliance would increase, but there would be a slight
44 This was the rate for Madrid when fines were introduced, though it has subsequently increased due to the fines not
98
reduction in the share of short haul movements. It would improve some of its slot timings by exchanging them for slots in its banks.
•
There would be an increase in long-haul services from the airport, in part as a result of some competitive long-haul entry both by other alliances and by other airlines. However, the extent of this would be limited when compared with London Heathrow.•
Low-cost services would increase their presence at the expense of short-haul services by carriers outside the Skyteam alliance. Charter airlines would retain their presence at the airport but would retime many of their services.•
Some switching to times when slots are available occurs as a result of higher peak charges.MAD
•
The changes would be limited as the predicted extent of excess demand in 2007 at this airport would be limited. The main change would be a substantial increase in the share of movements operated by low cost carriers, at the expense of short haul carriers operated by both the hub alliance and by non-alliance carriers. But there will also be a significant increase in the total number of movements as a result of higher off peak usage and fewer late returns.VIE
•
Like at MAD, excess demand at this airport in 2007 will be limited as will be the impact of market mechanisms on the share of slots held by different types of carriers. At this airport too, low-cost airlines would increase their share at the expense of the relative shares of all other carriers. However, the total number of movements increases substantially so that in absolute terms, most categories of airline increase their movements. There would however be little or no long-haul entry into this airport due to the (when compared to CDG and MAD) relatively small catchment area of Vienna.99 Table 6.6
Modelled Shift in Services: CDG, MAD and VIE
CDG MAD VIE Current Movements (%) Predicted Movements (%) Current Movements (%) Predicted Movements (%) Current Movements (%) Predicted Movements (%) Hub alliance short-haul 39.0% 38.8% 40.7% 39.4% 61.7% 59.1% Hub alliance long-haul 12.3% 13.2% 4.1% 4.0% 6.3% 6.2% Other alliances short-hl 12.7% 11.9% 7.8% 7.5% 5.4% 5.1% Other alliances long-hl 3.0% 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Low cost 2.1% 4.9% 1.1% 4.9% 0.0% 4.7% Charter 5.1% 5.2% 1.1% 1.1% 8.2% 7.9% Other short- haul 19.7% 16.7% 41.2% 39.3% 17.0% 15.7% Other long- haul 6.0% 6.2% 2.8% 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Schedules data, NERA estimates
The estimated impact of these changes on passenger numbers passing through the three airports is shown in Table 6.7.
Table 6.7
Estimated Impact of Market Mechanisms on Passenger Numbers by Segment: CDG, MAD and VIE (% change)
CDG MAD VIE
Long-haul scheduled movements 11.1% 3.3% 5.3%
Short-haul scheduled movements 2.9% 6.5% 8.3%
Charter movements 5.7% 2.8% 3.7%
Total movements 4.8% 6.3% 7.8%
Total passengers 9.1% 7.6% 11.4%
Source: NERA estimates
As can be seen, due to the significant increases in the total number of movements at these airports, the number of movements increase for each category at the three airports. There are however shifts in the relative importance of the categories. At CDG, the biggest increases are seen in the numbers of long-haul passengers, whereas short-haul passengers increase most at MAD and VIE. The number of movements operated by charter airlines at
100
each of the three airports increases slightly (though there are significant shifts to off-peak periods by this category).
Overall, passenger numbers at the three airports increase by between 7.6 per cent and 11.4 per cent.
6.5. Overall Impact
In the previous sections, we have estimated the potential impacts of market mechanisms on the numbers of passengers using particular airports. In the present section, we attempt to generalise these impacts across all Category 1 airports.
Table 6.8 contains the forecast shares of passenger numbers at each type of Category 1 airport in 2007.
Table 6.8
Categorisation of Airports (2007 estimates)
Type Share of passengers45
Airports with little or no excess demand 12%
Airports with limited excess demand 67%
Airports with severe excess demand throughout the day. 21%
Source: NERA estimates
In Section 6.4, we have analysed examples of airports with excess demand at some or all times of the day. The estimated increases in passenger numbers are greatest at the airports with limited excess, as we believe that market-based mechanisms have the potential for increasing the total number of movements at these airports (at off-peak hours and through a higher utilisation of slots). Taking account of the relative sizes of the airports, our central estimate of the average potential magnitude of passenger number increases at these airports is 8.5 per cent.
The category of airports with severe excess demand throughout the day will in 2007 consist of only LHR, LGW, LIN and ORY. We see little or no scope for increasing movements at these airports; at LHR and LGW because these airports are used very intensively already, at LIN and ORY because these airports are subject to stringent limits on numbers of movements. As a result, the expected increase in passengers on these airports as a result of market mechanisms will be lower. Our central estimate of the average increase at these airports, taking their relative sizes into account, is 6.3 per cent.
101 We have not analysed the category of airports with little or no excess demand. Still, we expect some potential increases here, for example as a result of knock-on effects from schedule changes at airports with excess demand. Our central estimate of the average increase in passenger numbers at airports with little or no excess demand is 1 per cent.
Our estimates are summarised in Table 6.9.
Table 6.9
Summary of Passenger Growth Estimates
Type Share of
passengers46
Central estimate of passenger growth
Airports with little or no excess demand 12% 1.0%
Airports with limited excess demand 67% 8.5%
Airports with severe excess demand throughout the day. 21% 6.3%
Total (weighted average) 100% 7.2%
Source: NERA estimates
Over the medium to long term, we would expect the use of an ideal market mechanism to result in a total increase in passenger numbers at Category 1 airports of around 7.2 per cent. Given total forecast passenger numbers at Category 1 airports in 2007 of 719 million, this would amount to a total increase in passenger numbers at Category 1 airports in the order of 52 million.47
This analysis is based on an ideal market mechanism, rather than any of the specific mechanisms discussed in Chapter 5. In practice, all the mechanisms have imperfections which will mean that the actual impacts will be below those presented above. We discuss the impacts of the individual mechanisms in Chapters 7 to 11 below.