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Análisis y priorización de los servicios ecosistémicos a ser

2.2 El proceso de valoración económica de la diversidad

2.2.3 Análisis y priorización de los servicios ecosistémicos a ser

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Estimating Inputs:

– Work Breakdown Structure – Resource Requirements – Resource Rates (if known) – Activity Duration Estimates

– Historical Information – (project files, commercial cost databases, team knowledge

– Chart Of Accounts – coding structure for accounting; general ledger reporting

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Estimating Tools & Techniques

– Analogous Estimating – “top down”; using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate

• Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise – form of expert judgment

– Parametric Modeling – uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs (e.g.building houses)

• Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable

– 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve

– Bottom Up Estimating – rolling up individual activities into project total – smaller work activities have more accuracy -

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Estimating Tools & Techniques

– Pro‟s and Con‟s

– Analogous Estimating

• Quick - Less Accurate

• Tasks don‟t need to be identified – Estimates prepared with little detail and understanding of project

• Less costly – Requires considerable experience to do well • Gives PM idea of management expectations – Infighting at

high levels of organization

• Overall project costs are capped – Difficult for projects with uncertainty

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Estimating Tools & Techniques

– Pro‟s and Con‟s

– Bottom Up Estimating

• More Accurate – Takes time and expense

• Gains buy-in from the team – Tendency for team to pad estimates

• Based on detailed analysis of project – Requires that project be defined and understood

• Provides a basis for monitoring and control – Team infighting to get biggest piece of pie

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Outputs from Cost Estimating

– Cost estimates – quantitative assessments of likely costs of resources required to complete tasks

• For all resources of the project (labor, materials, supplies, inflation allowance, reserve)

• Expressed in units of currency

– Supporting Detail

• Description of scope (reference to the WBS) • Documentation how estimate was developed • Indication of range of possible results

• Assumptions

– Cost Management Plan – how cost variances will be managed

– Cost Risk: associated to seller for Fixed Price; associated to buyer for Time and Materials budget

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Budgeting

– Involves allocation of total estimate to individual work to establish a cost baseline to measure performance

• Cost Budgeting Inputs

– Cost Estimate

– Work Breakdown Structure

– Project Schedule – includes planned start and finish dates for items costs are allocated to

• Needed to assign costs during the time period when the actual cost will be incurred

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Budgeting Tools & Techniques

– same as Cost Estimating Tools and Techniques

• Outputs from Cost Budgeting

– Cost Baseline – time phased budget to measure and monitor cost performance

• Developed by summing estimated costs by period (S curve of values vs. time)

• Larger projects have multiple baselines to measure different aspects of cost performance

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Control

– Concerned with influencing factors that create changes to the cost baseline that are beneficial

– Determining that the cost baseline has changed – Managing actual changes as they occur

• Monitor cost performance to detect variances

• Record all appropriate changes accurately in the cost baseline • Preventing incorrect, unauthorized changes being included in the

cost baseline

• Informing stakeholders of authorized changes

– Determine the “why‟s” of positive and negative variances

– Integrated will all other control processes (scope, change, schedule, quality)

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Inputs to Cost Control

– Cost Baseline

– Performance Reports – meet, exceed budget

• 50/50 Rule – task is considered 50% complete when it begins and gets credit for remainder 50% only when completed

• 20/80 Rule - task is considered 20% complete when it begins and gets credit for remainder 80% only when completed

• 0/100 Rule – task only credited when fully completed

– Change Requests

– Cost Management Plan

• Tools & Techniques of Cost Control

– Cost Change Control System – defines the procedures by which the cost baseline may be changed

– Performance Measurement – assess magnitude of cost variations (Earned Value Analysis) and what is causing the variance

– Additional Planning – examine alternatives

– Computerized Tools – forecast planned costs, track actual costs, forecast effect of cost changes

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Cost Control Outputs

– Revised Cost Estimate

• Modifications to cost information; require stakeholder approval and adjustments to other project areas

– Budget Updates – changes to approved cost baseline; revised in response to scope changes

– Corrective Action

– Estimate at completion – (EAC) – forecast of total expenditures

• Actual to date plus remaining budget modified by a factor (cost performance index)

– Current variances are seen to apply to future variances

• Actual to date plus new estimate for remaining work

– Original estimates are flawed, or no longer relevant

• Actual to date plus remaining budget

– Current variances are typical and similar variances will not occur in the future

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Earned Value Analysis

– Integrates cost, schedule and scope

– Better that comparing projected vs. actual because time and cost are analyzed separately

– Terms:

• BCWS – Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (how much work should be done)

• BCWP – Budgeted Cost of Work Performed a.k.a. Earned Value (how much work is budgeted, how much did we

budget)

• ACWP – Actual Cost of Work Performed (how much did the completed work cost)

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Earned Value Analysis

– Terms:

• BAC – Budget at Completion (how much did you budget for the total job)

• EAC – Estimate at Completion (what do we expect the total project to cost)

• ETC – Estimate to Completion (how much more do we expect to spend to finish the job)

• VAC – Variance at Completion (how much over/under budget do we expect to be)

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Earned Value Analysis

– Formulas

• Variance (Plan – Actual)

• Cost Variance (CV): BCWP – ACWP; negative is over budget

• Schedule Variance (SV): BCWP – BCWS; negative is behind schedule

• Cost Performance Index (CPI): BCWP

ACWP

• I am only getting x¢ out of every $

BCWP ACWP

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Earned Value Analysis

– Formulas

• Schedule Performance Index (SPI): BCWP

BCWS

– I am only progressing x % of the planned rate

• Estimate at Completion (EAC): BAC

CPI

– As of now we expect the total project to cost x$

• Estimate to Complete (ETC): EAC – ACWP; how much will it cost from now to completion

• Variance at Completion: BAC – EAC; when the project is over how much more or less did we spend (most common way of calculating EVA

BCWP BCWS BAC

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Earned Value Analysis

– BCWP comes first in most formulas – If it is a variance, BCWP comes first – If it is an index, BCWP is divided by

– If the formula relates to cost, use AWCP

– If the formula related to schedule, use BWCP – Negative is bad; positive results are good

– ETC refers to “this point on”; EAC refers to when job is completed

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Accuracy of Estimates

– Order of Magnitude Estimate: -25% - 75%;

usually made during Initiation Phase

– Budget Estimate: -10% - 25%; usually made

during the Planning phase

– Definitive Estimate: -5% - 10%; usually made

during the Planning phase

Chapter 7 – Project Cost

Management

• Accounting Standards

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