Análisis situacional empresa Polinter S.A.S

In the first question, we asked stakeholders to define the severity of climate change at the global scale and for tourism in their region. We did this for both the present and for a 2030-2050 time hori-zon. Answers showed that climate change was seen by the majority of respondents as already caus-ing global problems today: 48% of respondents agreed and 33% even strongly agreed with this asser-tion, versus respectively 4% and 3% who disagreed and strongly disagreed (Figure 4.13). The propor-tion was bigger concerning future impacts (2030-2050). Here 36% agreed and 48% strongly agreed with the assumption that climate change will lead to global problems in the future, versus 3% and 2%

that disagreed or strongly disagreed.

Potential impacts are felt as important, but perhaps somewhat less pressing, at the local level and concerning tourism. To the question whether impacts of climate change are already causing prob-lems in the tourism sector in their own region, 32% of the respondents agreed and 13% strongly agreed, whereas 23% disagreed and 5% strongly disagreed. Impacts are perceived as more important in the future: 34% of the respondents agreed and 28% strongly agreed with the assumption that the impacts of climate change will lead to problems in the tourism sector in their region against respec-tively 10% and 4% who disagreed or strongly disagreed.⁶⁴

64 In an phone survey (Univox 2011) conducted in the same period among Swiss citizens (Section 3.1.3.2) 53%

of the respondents agreed that climate change will generally have impacts in the country and that measures should be taken now to address them, 37% agreed that some impacts will take place, but these will not be serious, and 5% that no impacts will be perceived even in the future.

Figure 4.13: Stakeholders’ perception of present and future (2030-2050) problems generated by climate change, both globally and regionally, for tourism (N=566).

Climate change is often seen as being as important as other factors that can affect the tourism sector, such as, for example, globalization or changes in preferences, population structure, mobility patterns, and the global economy. The majority of the respondents (42%) assigned a relative score of 4-6 out of 10 to the impacts of climate change in relation to the other factors. This is illustrated in Figure 4.14.

Figure 4.14: Distribution of the number of answers (N=260) to the question “How strong do you evaluate the impacts of climate change on tourism in your region in relation to other changes (e.g. globalization or changes in preferences, population structure, mobility patterns, and the global economy)?” (1 = far less important; 10 = much more important).

On a general level, stakeholders already perceive their region to be exposed to the impacts of climate change. In their opinion, this exposure will grow in the future. In an open question to the subject, only 4% of the respondents (23 out of 566) replied that no impact was observed in their region and less than 1% (10) said that there will be no consequence in the future (Figure 4.15, respectively black and white bars). When asked about the different impacts already perceived in their own region, the respondents mentioned shrinking glaciers most frequently (145 or 26% of the respondents) (Figure 4.15, black bars). This was followed by decreasing snow reliability (24%) (in particular in the lowlands:

12%), the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events (e.g. storms, mass movements such as debris flows, heavy rainfall events, floods, or heat waves) (22%), and decreasing in water availabil-ity (20%). 13 respondents also indicated increasing weather variabilavailabil-ity as an already perceived impact.

The question related to the present impacts was open; respondents were invited to describe per-ceived impacts in their own words.

Concerning exposure at the 2030-2050 time horizon, the most cited impacts were the increase in mean annual temperature (84% of the respondents ticked it the a multiple-choices questionnaire), the general decrease in snow reliability (78%), and the increase in frequency and magnitude of ex-treme events (76%) (Figure 4.15, white bars). Shrinking glaciers followed with 70% of the respond-ents expecting them. Snow-reliability in higher altitudes appeared less frequently as a possible im-pact than in the lowlands, the latter having been ticked by 70% of the respondents against 41% for the former.

Figure 4.15: In white, percentage of answers (N=566) to the multiple choice question “What changes from climate change do you expect in your region by 2030-50?” In black, the percentage of answers to the open question “Have you already experienced some of these changes in your region? If yes, which ones?”

Regarding regional adaptive capacity, stakeholders considered it to be average (49% of the answers) (Figure 4.16). 6% defined it as very high and 18% as high. For 21% of the respondents the adaptive capacity in their region was low. Regarding vulnerability, 11% of the respondents considered the region they live in as very vulnerable, 29% as quite vulnerable, and 49% as partly vulnerable. 6% con-sidered their region as not vulnerable at all (Figure 4.17).

Figure 4.16: Answers to the question “How do you assess the ability of tourism to cope with climate change impacts in your region? E.g. its ability to moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences of climate change?” (N=566).

Figure 4.17: Answers to the question “In your opinion, how vulnerable is the tourism sector in your region to climate change? We consider a region as vulnerable if it is exposed to or unable to cope with the adverse ef-fects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes” (N=566).

4.5.7.2 Relation among potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability perceived by