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An´ alisis Matricial

5. Modulador Mach Zehnder

5.1.2. An´ alisis Matricial

Choice of information strategy must be made with a view to at least two important considerations. One consideration is the compliance issue which relates to formal information requirements originating in specific rules or commitments in the EU Emission trading scheme or general Danish requirements relating to public procurement and other transactions. The profit consideration is the issue of how an information strategy can be construed to support the objective of maximising the sales revenues.

Compliance considerations

The EU emission trading directive and associated guidelines do not include any specific regulations concerning announcement of the sale of unallocated allowances. The Danish Ministry of Environment has previously published a general outline of the sale of unallocated allowances in the Danish National Allocation Plan of March 2004:

“1.9: Planer om bortauktionering:

Der afsættes i Danmark en samlet pulje på 5,025 mio. kvoter til salg ved auktion i første periode, svarende til 5 % af den samlede kvote. Kvoterne vil blive solgt ved en eller flere åbne auktioner. Auktionen vil blive bekendtgjort såvel nationalt som internationalt og være åben for enhver køber. Det vil således ikke være et krav for at deltage i aktionen, at den pågældende køber er driftsleder for en produktionsenhed i Danmark eller i udlandet. Auktionsprovenuet tilfalder den danske statskasse efter fradrag af omkostninger ved auktionen”.

In the Danish law on CO2 allowances (article 21), no specific reference to method of sale is

made:

§ 21. Økonomi- og erhvervsministeren foranlediger, at kvoter fastsat efter § 15, stk.

2, sælges på CO

2

-kvote-markedet, herunder eventuelt på auktion.

Stk. 2. Tildeling af kvoter erhvervet efter stk. 1 sker ved, at ministeren

anmoder miljøministeren om at indsætte kvoter på køberens konto i

registeret.

Stk. 3. Ministeren fastsætter tidspunktet for salget efter stk. 1 og vilkårene

herfor.

Stk. 4. Provenuet fra salg af kvoter efter stk. 1 med fradrag af

omkostningerforbundet hermed tilfalder statskassen”.

The fact that the allocation plan makes several references to allowance auctions should not prevent the Danish government from choosing alternative sales channels provided that the choice of channels complies with general principles of competition such as transparency and non

discrimination. Following this, we consequently see no additional need to justify or announce the selection of specific sales channels in external communication.

Another compliance issue which may have an impact on the level of market information is formal bidding requirements regarding choices of trustees and marketplaces. A formal bidding procedure may potentially convey substantial information about the sales strategy to the marketplace. In this context, reference is specifically made to article 16d of the Public procurement directive (Europa-Parlamentets og Rådets direktiv Nr. 2004/18/EF af 31. marts 2004 om samordning af fremgangsmåderne ved indgåelse af offentlige vareindkøbskontrakter, offentlige tjenesteydelseskontrakter og offentlige bygge- og anlægskontrakter):

”Artikel 16 Særlige undtagelser

Dette direktiv finder ikke anvendelse på offentlige tjenesteydelseskontrakter: ...

d) om finansielle tjenesteydelser vedrørende emission, køb, salg og overførsel af værdipapirer eller andre finansielle instrumenter, navnlig transaktioner med henblik på den ordregivende myndigheds penge- eller kapitalanskaffelse samt tjenesteydelser leveret af centralbanker ...”

This clause should allow Danish authorities to choose a trustee and marketplaces for allowance transactions without a public procurement procedure. However, irrespective of this, care needs to be taken not to disclose too detailed information about the sales strategy during direct communication with possible trustees.

Another related issue is compliance with possible national rules regarding the sale of public property. We have not been able to identify any specific relevant Danish rule governing this issue. General principles however (as referred to in the budgeting guidebook –BV), prescribe a selection of procedures that maximise public revenue and require documentation that sales achieve prevailing market prices. In an EU context, the Danish government may not segment markets with the objective of favouring Danish buyers of EU allowances.

Profit considerations

Information to a market about major transactions will normally cause price effects. An announcement of an imminent sale of e.g. 5 million allowances could cause prices to fall significantly more than what would normally follow by an extra supply of 5 million allowances. This is due to the withdrawal of demand from the market in the anticipation of falling prices.

A seller can be disadvantaged by a requirement to provide exact information to the market about transaction timelines and volumes. The advantages of secrecy should however not be overemphasised since we after all are dealing with a relatively small amount of allowances compared to the volumes traded in the market. We believe however that on the margin, the Danish government would be best served by issuing non-specific information about the sales strategy.

Summary

Based on the objective of maximising revenues from the sale of the allowances, we recommend that relatively little and non specific information about the sales strategy should be issued to the market. An announcement (press release) in Danish and English could e.g. include the following main elements:

• Following §§ 15 and 21 of the Danish law on CO2 allowances, the Danish government has

decided to commence the sale of 5.025 million European emission allowances

• Volume, time and place of sales transactions will be chosen with a view to maximise the revenues for the Danish state

• The sale of allowances will be completed before end of April 2008, after which time the allowances will cease to have value

• If a trustee has been selected to manage the whole sales programme, information could be provided about this.

• For further information, please contact the relevant person/agency within the Danish government.

Appendix

Table of contents

Appendix 1 Case study for auctions

Appendix 2 Overview of available exchanges

Appendix 1: Case study for auctions

Case: US Acid Rain Program Allowance Auctions

A relevant emission trading auction case can be found in USA where EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) has held SO2 permits auctions since 1993. Title IV of the Clean Air Act

Amendments mandates that EPA hold or sponsor yearly auctions of allowances for a small portion of the total allowances allocated each year.

To supply the auctions with allowances, EPA set aside a Special Allowance Reserve of approximately 2.8 percent of the total annual allowances allocated to all units. During Phase I, when the allocated allowances total 5.7 million allowances annually, 150,000 allowances were available every year for auctions. During Phase II, when allowance allocations total 8.95 million allowances annually, 250,000 allowances are earmarked annually for auctions.

Private allowance holders (such as utilities or brokers) also may offer their allowances for sale at the EPA auctions, provided that the allowances are dated for the year in which they are offered, for any previous year, or for 7 years in the future. Authorized account representatives must notify the administrator of the EPA auctions of their intent to sell at least 15 business days prior to the auctions. The account representatives must specify the number of allowances they are offering and their minimum price requirements.

The auctions are currently conducted for EPA by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This authorisation is made possible by the Clean Air Act Amendments that gave EPA the authority to delegate the administration of the auctions. After an objective selection process, EPA chose CBOT to run the auctions because of its demonstrated ability in handling and processing financial instruments and using transactional information systems.

Because EPA delegates to CBOT (as opposed to contracting with CBOT) to administer the auctions, CBOT is not compensated by EPA for its services nor allowed to charge fees. CBOT is not allowed to bid for allowances in the auctions nor transfer allowances in the EPA Allowance Tracking System. Only the administrative functions of the auction program have been delegated to CBOT; all other aspects of the auctions remain with EPA, as do all allowance transfer functions.

The auctions began in 1993 and are held annually, usually on the last Monday of March. Auctions are divided into two segments: (1) a spot allowance auction, in which allowances sold can be used in that same year for compliance purposes, and (2) an advance auction for the sale of allowances that will become usable for compliance 7 years after the transaction date, although they can be traded earlier.

Bidders must send sealed offers containing information on the number and type (spot or advance) of allowances desired and the purchase price to CBOT, no later than 3 business days prior to the auctions. Each bid must also include a certified check or letter of credit for the total bid cost. (Other forms of payment may be permitted by EPA upon public notice.)

The auctions sell allowances from the Special Allowance Reserve on the basis of bid price, starting with the highest priced bid and continuing until all allowances have been sold or the number of bids is exhausted. EPA may not set a minimum price for allowances from the Special Allowance Reserve.

Allowances are sold from the Special Allowance Reserve before allowances offered by private holders are sold. Offered allowances are sold in ascending order, starting with the allowances for which private holders have set the lowest minimum price requirements. Offered allowances are sold until the allowance supply is depleted, bids are used up, or the minimum price for the next set of offered allowances exceeds the purchase price of the next bid.

EPA returns proceeds and unsold allowances from the auctioning of reserve allowances on a pro rata basis to those units from which EPA originally withheld allowances to create the Special Allowance Reserve. Proceeds from the sale of offered allowances are returned to private allowance holders that contributed the allowances to the auctions. EPA likewise returns payment from unsuccessful bids and allowances from unsuccessful offers.

Appendix 2: Overview of available exchanges

ECX

ECX products are listed by ICE Futures (previously IPE) and traded on ICE Future’s electronic platform with standard contracts and clearing guarantees provided by LCH Clearnet. ECX CFI contracts are traded from 08.00 - 17.00 (GMT/BST) on UK business days. Currently, the contracts traded at ECX/ICE are quarterly contracts of 1,000 EUAs (1,000 tCO2) listed from December 2005 through March 2008, and annual expirations listed for 2008 through 2012 re. table below.

The core delivery model is that a seller will deliver to the LCH.Clearnet, and LCH.Clearnet will then deliver on to the buyer. Transfers will happen via the ICE Futures Clearing Member if the buyer or seller is not an ICE Futures Member. Given the timelines within the Registry Regulations, the delivery cycle is expected to take a maximum of four days, although this should be shorter depending upon the efficiency of the registries. Financial settlement will follow closely the physical settlement cycle.

The contracts are consequently settled physically upon expiry, which entails that the allowances are transferred physically between the parties to the contract following expiry of the contract. To this effect, the contracts should be considered as physical forward/future contracts and not pure derivative instruments.

Contracts traded at ECX/ICE

Contract Expiry

December 05 19 December 2005 March 06 27 March 2006 June 06 26 June 2006 September 06 25 September 2006 December 06 18 December 2006 March 07 26 March 2007 June 07 25 June 2007 September 07 24 September 2007 December 07 17 December 2007 March 08 31 March 2008 December 08 15 December 2008 December 09 14 December 2009 December 10 20 December 2010 December 11 19 December 2011 December 12 17 December 2012

Cost of trading at ECX

There are two ways of accessing ICE Futures to trade ECX CFIs: either as an ICE Futures Member or by order-routing as a client of an ICE Futures Member. The cost of ICE Futures membership will be dependent on the nature of the firm and the type of business which the company wishes to undertake. Under ICE Futures' electronic membership structure there are three categories of members:

• General Participant

General Participants may trade on their own account and on behalf of clients. A General Participant who is a member of LCH.Clearnet will be permitted to clear their own business, client business and business for non-clearing Members (hereafter 'Clearing Members'). General Participants who are not Clearing Members will need to put in place a Clearing Agreement with a Clearing Member. General Participants who are Clearing Members must have a net worth requirement of £5 million (or £0.5 million if they are not Clearing Members); • Individual Participant

Individual Participants are effectively the existing 'Local' Members - i.e. individuals or sole traders trading only on their own account. There are no net worth requirements imposed by the Exchange, although they will need to prove their creditworthiness to their clearing firm; • Trade Participant

Trade Participants are limited to trading on their own account. Trade Participants may be Clearing or non-Clearing Members, although they are restricted to clearing proprietary business only.

General Participant and Trade Participant categories of membership must either be clearing members or, as non-clearing members, must enter into a clearing agreement with a General Participant who is a clearing member (LCH Clearnet). An Individual Participant cannot be a clearing member and, as a non-clearing member, must enter into a clearing agreement with a General Participant who is a clearing member.

Membership of ICE Futures under the existing membership structure will entitle companies to trade in all of ICE Futures products other than emissions. Companies will also be able to apply to ICE Futures for membership to trade in ECX CFIs only. In doing so, they will apply for one of the existing membership categories - most probably the General or Trade Participant categories, but elect only to trade ECX CFIs and apply for an Emissions Trading Privilege.

Only the ECX CFI application and annual fees are relevant if members only wish to trade emission allowance instruments. In addition to general fees, there are transaction related fees:

For ICE Futures Member, the contract fee will be €2.00 per lot per side - this will apply irrespective of whether you are a Clearing Member or not. The contract fee for all other business (i.e. order routing customers) and client business will be charged €2.50 per lot per side.

The Exchange fees do not include clearing fees. The LCH.Clearnet clearing fee for all business inc. blocks, EFPs and EFSs €2 per lot (thus €0.002 per tonne) per side as of 2006 (€ 0,001during 2005). In the case you wish to make or take delivery, the LCH.Clearnet delivery fee is €1 per lot (thus €0.001 per tonne) per side for all business during 2005. Margin calls at ICE Futures take two forms - initial margin (which is called up-front and will be passed through the ICE Futures Clearing Member) and variation margin (calculated on a daily basis as positions are marked-to- market in order to reflect daily price movements).

1 Existing ICE Futures Members will not need to re-apply and therefore this fee will be waived; 2 The Annual fee will be waived for existing ICE Futures Members in 2005.

N

ORD

P

OOL

NordPool products are traded on NordPool’s electronic platform PowerCLICKTM. Contracts are traded from 0900-1530 CET. Clearing is provided by NordPool Clearing ASA. Currently, available

contracts in Phase 1 are three standard physical forward delivery contracts with annual expiration in March 06, December 05, December 07 and a spot contract. Contracts are all lot sizes of 1,000 EUAs (1,000t CO2).

The contracts are:

Product series: EUA Forwards

1. Forward delivery March 2006 – last trading day: 27. March 2006 2. Forward delivery December 2006 - last trading day: 7. December 2006 3. Forward delivery December 2007 - last trading day: 6. December 2007

Product series: EUA Spot

Each contract is only traded one day with settlement three business days after the trading day.

All contracts are settled three trading days after last trading day by physical delivery versus payment. Seller deposits EUAs in a Nord Pool account in the actual national registry after closing hour the last trading day for the contract to be delivered, redefined in the sales contract. Nord Pool then arranges transfer of EUAs from the Nord Pool account to buyer’s account. Nord Pool will establish a relationship in several national registries where members are located.

Nord Pool Clearing ASA (NPC) acts as the counterparty in all contracts traded at PowerCLICKTM and contracts traded bilaterally in the OTC market. This means that NPC will guarantee for physical delivery of EUA (against buyer) and for financial settlement (against seller). During the trading period, a pre-delivery option is available for sellers. This will enable participants to reduce their daily margin calls by delivering the EUAs physically to Nord Pool Clearing’s account in an agreed register.

Cost of trading at NordPool11

Trading at NordPool may take place either by direct membership or as Clearing Client acting through a member of the exchange. The Clearing Member may, with special approval from Nord Pool Clearing, represent Clearing Clients acting as their Client Representative in relation to Nord Pool Clearing. Additionally, an agent may be authorised through separate agreement with NordPool, to represent Members or clearing clients as broker/intermediary in commodity derivatives contracts and other transactions.

The following annual fees (EUR) are applicable (no membership fee is applicable):

11 Source: All fees posted by NordPool on their website as of 4 January 2006. Rates may change

The following variable (transaction related) fees are applicable (EUR/tCO2):

For a period starting 19 January until 31 March 2006, Nord Pool will implement an initiator/ aggressor fee model for the EUA forward products. This model will give the participants an incentive to post prices on the electronic trading system, PowerCLICKTM. There will be a differentiated trading fee between the initiator (enter quotes) and the aggressor (price takers). The initiator’s trading fee during the period of the market campaign will be zero, while the aggressor’s trading fee will remain at today’s level at 0.005 EUR/tCO2. Nord Pool will at the end of this period evaluate whether this model shall be continued or not.

The Daily Margin Call EUA will be calculated for all open positions on the account holders Clearing Account based on Daily Closing Prices. Nord Pool SPAN®1 - risk-based calculation system, will also be applied in the Daily Margin Call calculation in the EUA market. The seller will be allowed to deposit EUAs to Nord Pools account anytime during the trading period of the contract. The deposited EUAs will then be considered in the Daily Margin Call calculation, which will be pro-rata reduced.

EEX

The contracts are:

1. Future delivery December 2006 - last trading day: 29. November 2006 2. Future delivery December 2007 - last trading day: 29. November 2007 3. Future delivery December 2008 - last trading day: 27. November 2008 4. Future delivery December 2009 - last trading day: 27. November 2009 5. Future delivery December 2010 - last trading day: 29. November 2010 6. Future delivery December 2011 - last trading day: 29. November 2011 7. Future delivery December 2012 - last trading day: 29. November 2012

Product series: Spot Trading in EU Allowances

Minimum contract size is one allowance i.e. 1 tCO2. Each contract is only traded one day with

settlement on the second trading day following the transaction day.

All futures contracts are settled on the first trading day of December by physical delivery versus payment. Fulfilment is carried out by means of transferring the EU Allowances within the internal inventory accounts of EEX AG and of the changes in the proportionate part of the total stock of

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