Los analitos y su determinación

To shed light on the tradeoff between rents and wages, we use the information from our survey to plot average wages by section and occupation. Figure 7, which shows average wage by section for unskilled workers, indicates that wages for unskilled labor tend to be higher in zones 1 and 2 of Mumbai than in the suburbs; however, there are important exceptions in zones 4 (sections 59) and zone 6 (section 81). Results for skilled workers (Figure 8) are even more mixed. This suggests that determining whether poor households in central Mumbai are better off than poor households in the suburbs is complicated.

One might also wish to ask whether, holding residential location fixed, poor

households in zones 5 and 6 would be better off commuting farther than they do currently.

Table 38 shows where poor workers in each residential zone work, broken down by skill type. Over 80% of unskilled workers and 70% of skilled workers who live in zones 1-3 also work in the zone in which they live. These percentage fall in zones 5 and 6;

nevertheless between 55 and 60% of skilled and unskilled workers in zones 5 and 6 work in the zone in which they live. An interesting question is whether these workers would be better off if they commuted farther than they do.

Table 38. Commuting Pattern of Unskilled and Skilled Workers Residential zone

There is also the issue of employment security. Table 39 shows the proportion of working-aged men in our sample households who are not working, by household income and zone of residence.¹⁹ These figures suggest that unemployment rates for the poor are highest in zones 5 and 6—9.2% in zone 5 and 19.4% in zone 6—and are much higher than for other income groups. Whether this is the result of high commuting costs requires further study.

Table 39. Percent of Men Aged 25-59 Not Working, by Household Income and Zone of Residence

Zone <5k 5-7.5k 7.5-10k 10-20k >20k HH Avg 1 8.8 9.6 6.8 2.2 4.8 6.3 2 8.1 8.6 6.2 8.2 0.0 7.3 3 3.8 6.0 4.6 4.5 3.6 4.7 4 4.9 4.8 4.1 6.1 4.8 4.9 5 9.2 5.1 4.7 5.7 3.1 6.2 6 19.4 7.7 7.8 5.6 7.8 9.8 Average 8.9 6.8 5.7 5.4 4.3 6.5

19 We did not ascertain whether a person was unemployed; hence all that we can report is whether men of working age are employed or not.

Figure 7. Mean Monthly Earnings for Unskilled Laborers (Rs.)

Figure 8. Mean Monthly Earnings for Skilled Laborers (Rs.)

V. Conclusions and Future Research Agenda A. Major Findings

This study has described the salient facts about travel patterns in Mumbai, for both poor and non-poor households. What do these facts imply about the relationship between urban transport and the welfare of the poor?

A striking finding of our survey is the extent to which all households—but especially poor households—rely on walking. Overall, 44% of commuters in Mumbai walk to work. The proportion of the poor who walk to work is even higher—63%.

Walking is an even higher modal share for non-work than for work trips.

A second finding is that public transit remains an important factor in the mobility of the poor, and especially in the mobility of the middle class. Overall, rail remains the main mode to work for 23% of commuters, while bus remains the main mode for 16% of commuters. The modal shares for bus are highest for the poor in zones 1-3 (21% of the poor in zone 2 take the bus to work) while rail shares are highest for the poor in the suburbs (25% of the poor in zone 6 take rail to work).

Is the cost and/or lack of accessibility to transit a barrier to the mobility of the poor? Does it keep them from obtaining better housing and/or better jobs? This is a difficult question to answer without further analysis of our survey data; however, it appears that transport is less of a barrier to the poor who live in central Mumbai (zones 1-3) than it is to the poor who live in the suburbs (zones 4-6).

The poor who live in zones 1-3 of Mumbai (central Mumbai) live closer to the non-poor than do poor households in the suburbs. They also live closer to higher-paying jobs for unskilled workers. Workers in these households, on average, commute short distances (less than 3 km) although a non-negligible fraction of them (one-third in zone 2) take public transit to work. It is true that the cost of housing for the poor is higher in central Mumbai than in the suburbs, but the quality of slum housing is at least as good in central Mumbai as in the suburbs.

The poor who live in the suburbs of Mumbai, especially in zones 5 and 6, are more isolated from the rich than the poor in central Mumbai: 37% of the poor live in zones 5 and 6, whereas only one-fifth of higher income groups do. Wages for skilled and unskilled labor are generally lower in zones 5 and 6 than in the central city, and it appears that unemployment rates for poor males are also higher in these zones. The lower cost of slum and chawl housing in zones 5 and 6 may partly compensate for lower wages;

however, a larger proportion of workers in poor households leave zones 5 and 6 to work than is true for poor workers in other zones. Commuting distances are much higher for poor workers in the suburbs than for poor workers in zones 1-3.