Aplicación a otros escenarios

In response to worsening air quality last century, specific air pollution events associated with a large number of excess deaths and, increasing evidence of the impact of PM on health, regulations were enacted in the major economic countries in an attempt to limit PM pollution (Bachmann 2007, Anderson et al. 2012). Current and previous air quality recommendations, guidelines and standards for PM10 and PM2.5 from the WHO, major industrial countries/zones and Australia, are shown in Table 3.5.1. In Table 3.5.1, distinctions are not made between air quality guidelines (recommended concentration of PM based on health criteria), air quality standards (includes compliance criteria, monitoring procedures and may take into account economic and social considerations as well as human health protection) and, advisory reporting standards (required monitoring and assessment without compliance criteria) (Department of Sustainability 2010). Air quality standards consist of an indicator (e.g. PM10 or PM2.5 mass), an averaging time (e.g. 24-hours or 1-year), a mass concentration level in ambient air and, a statistical form (e.g. limit not to be exceeded more than once per year) (Watson et al. 1995). The statistical form is not indicated in Table 3.5.1. The first air quality standards were published by the then newly formed US EPA in 1971 (Bachmann 2007). Based on health effects and air quality monitoring techniques, PM10 was put forward by the US EPA in 1987 as the best indicator of excessive PM exposure. PM2.5 was considered for regulation by the US EPA in the mid-1980’s but it took until 1997 to justify PM2.5 as an indicator to be regulated (US EPA 1997). Currently the standard for PM2.5 in Australia is an advisory reporting standard (NEPC 2003). However, the most recent NEPM review recommended the introduction of compliance standards for PM2.5 (NEPC 2014).

The mass concentration of PM in ambient air broadly follows a gradient from low concentrations in natural and rural environments to high concentrations in urban and industrial sites (Monn et al. 1995, Querol et al. 2004, Poschl 2005, Putaud et al. 2010). In Europe, these gradients are superimposed on extensive regional variation and tend to be more evident for PM10 than PM2.5 (Putaud et al. 2010). In NSW the natural/rural to urban site gradient does not occur for PM10, with annual average concentrations in regional sites often exceeding urban sites (Department of Sustainability 2010, NSW EPA 2013b). This is likely due to the significant influence of dust storms, bushfires and agriculture on PM10 levels in NSW (NSW EPA 2013b). Indeed, the highest average maximum PM10 concentrations have been the result of the contributions of bushfires and dust storms in 2002 and 2003 and, dust storms in 2009 (Department of Sustainability 2010, NSW Department of Environment Climate Change and Water 2010). However, it would be expected that ambient PM2.5, which is significantly influenced by anthropogenic sources, would follow a rural (lower concentration) to urban (higher concentration) gradient in NSW (Figure 3.5.1).

38 Table 3.5.1 Current and previous recommendations, guidelines and standards for ambient air PM10 and PM2.5

Authority Current Previous

Year PM10 PM2.5 Year PM10 PM2.5

WHO 2013a Limits should be maintained Short-term guideline for coarse particles (PM10-2.5)

may be considered

Likely to achieve health benefits through lowering limit below 2006 guidelines

2006b Annual average: 20 µg/m3

24-hour average: 50 µg/m3

Annual average: 10 µg/m3

24-hour average: 25 µg/m3

US EPA 2013c Annual average: none

24-hour average: 150 µg/m3

Annual average: 12 µg/m3

24-hour average: 35 µg/m3

2006d Annual average: none (revoked) 24-hour average: 150 µg/m3 Annual average: 15 µg/m3 24-hour average: 35 µg/m3 European Commission 2008e Annual average: 40 µg/m3 24-hour average: 50 µg/m3 Annual average: 25 µg/m3

24-hour average: none

1999f Annual average: 40 µg/m3

24-hour average: 50 µg/m3

Annual average: none

24-hour average: none

China, Ministry of Environment Protection 2012g Annual average: Class Ih 40 µg/m3 Class IIi 70 µg/m3 24-hour average: Class I 50 µg/m3 Class II 150 µg/m3 Annual average: Class I 15 µg/m3 Class II 35 µg/m3 24-hour average: Class I 35 µg/m3 Class II 75 µg/m3 1996g Annual average: Class I 40 µg/m3 Class II 100 µg/m3 24-hour average: Class I 50 µg/m3 Class II 150 µg/m3

Annual average: none

24-hour average: none

Australia, National Environment Protection Council 2014j Annual average: consideration of 20 µg/m3 24-hour average: consideration of 45 µg/m3 and 40 µg/m3

Convert annual average and 24-hour average advisory standards to formal standards at previous values

2003k Annual average: none

24-hour average: 50 µg/m3 Annual average: 8 µg/m3 (advisory only) 24-hour average: 25 µg/m3 (advisory only) a (WHO 2013c) g (Cao 2013) b

(WHO 2006a) h Applies to natural areas

c _{(US EPA 2013)} i _{Applies to residential/commercial areas} d

(US EPA 2006) j (NEPC 2014)

e

(EU 2008) k (NEPC 2003)

f

39 Figure 3.5.1 Schematic representation of expected ambient PM2.5 levels in NSW.

Adapted from: Health risks of particulate matter from long-range transboundary air pollution (WHO 2006b). This is for illustrative purposes only, various sources of particles and atmospheric conditions can disrupt the general spatial concentration gradient.

In NSW 1997-2012, no trends in ambient PM concentrations were evident (Department of Sustainability 2010, NSW EPA 2013b). In Australian cities over the period 1999-2008, with the exception of Launceston and Hobart, where levels of PM10 have decreased largely as a result of reductions in domestic wood heating, no trends in ambient PM concentrations were evident (Department of Sustainability 2010). The lack of observed trends in ambient PM concentrations during this time has occurred despite the implementation of air quality standards, vehicle fuel quality standards (reductions in the sulphur content of petrol and diesel) and, vehicle emission standards (reductions in oxides of nitrogen and PM2.5) (Department of Sustainability 2010). In NSW, the lack of a clear decrease in ambient PM may be a result of increases in coal mining, energy consumption from coal (which has only begun to decrease since 2008-09) and increased traffic off- setting these air quality improvement measures (ABS 2014c, ABS 2014b, NSW Trade and Investment Division of Resources and Energy 2014).

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4. Health effects associated with