CAPÍTULO 2: Tendencias y Tecnologías Actuales a Desarrollar
2.5. Aplicaciones Web
INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
eastern europe/eurasia
eastern europe/eurasia: energy demand by sector Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s final energy demand.
These are shown in Figure 5.83 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 46% from the current 47,166 PJ/a to 69,013 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand decreases by 21% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 37,240 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is increase to decrease in both the industry sector, the residential and service sectors, as well in the transport sector (see Figure 5.84). Total electricity demand (final energy) will rise from 1,154 TWh/a to 2,122 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 743 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by
introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.86). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,028 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
figure 5.83:eastern europe/eurasia: total final energy demand by sector under
the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORTREF E[R]
2009
REF E[R]
2015
REF E[R]
2020
REF E[R]
2030
REF E[R]
2040
REF E[R]
2050 PJ/a 0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - DEMAND
figure 5.84:eastern europe/eurasia: development of electricity demand by sector in the
energy [r]evolution scenario
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORTE[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
figure 5.85:eastern europe/eurasia: development of the transport demand by sector in the
energy [r]evolution scenario
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
DOMESTIC NAVIGATION•
RAIL•
DOMESTIC AVIATION•
ROADE[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
figure 5.86:eastern europe/eurasia: development of heat demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY© GP/WILL ROSE
© GP/STEVE MORGAN
image AN INDIGENOUS NENET WOMAN WITH HER REINDEER. THE NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND.
THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.
image A SITE OF A DISAPPEARED LAKE AFTER PERMAFROST SUBSIDENCE IN RUSSIA.
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
eastern europe/eurasia
eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply sector is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced in Eastern Europe/Eurasia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 73% of electricity generation. Already by 2020 the share of renewable electricity production will be 32% and 57% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 560 GW in 2030 and 1,312 GW by 2050.
Table 5.37 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will mainly be complemented by electricity from biomass and photovoltaics. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.
table 5.37: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
2020
figure 5.87:eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)
TWh/a 0
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
500
•
OCEAN ENERGY•
SOLAR THERMAL•
GEOTHERMAL•
NATURAL GAS•
LIGNITE•
COAL141
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
eastern europe/eurasia: future costs of electricity generation
Figure 5.88 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases the future costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario. This difference will be less than $ 1.5 cent/kWh up to 2020, however. Because of high prices for conventional fuels and the lower CO2intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become even more economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 12.9 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s
$ 282 billion per year to more than $ 830 billion in 2050. Figure 5.88 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s CO2reduction targets, but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are more than 55% lower than in the Reference scenario.
figure 5.88: eastern europe/eurasia: total electricity supply costs & specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 5 10 15 20 25 ct/kWh Bn$/a
SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R])
•
‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES•
REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF)•
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])eastern europe/eurasia: future investments in the power sector
It would require $ 3,385 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants)
-approximately $ 1,961 billion (or annually $ 49 billion) more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,424 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 48% while approximately 52% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, Eastern Europe/Eurasia would shift almost 97% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 85 billion.
Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of
$ 7,705 billion up to 2050, or $ 193 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 390% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.
figure 5.89:eastern europe/eurasia: investment shares -reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario
REF 2011 - 2050
19% FOSSIL 29% NUCLEAR 16% CHP
36% RENEWABLES
Total $ 1,424 billion
E[R] 2011 - 2050
3% FOSSIL
24% CHP
73% RENEWABLES Total $ 3,385 billion
© GP/SHIRLEY © GP/MIZUKOSHI
image CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER STATION, UKRAINE.
image THE SUN OVER LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - HEATING
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
eastern europe/eurasia
eastern europe/eurasia: heating supply
Today, renewables meet 3% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s heat demand, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass.
The construction and expansion of district heating networks is a crucial prerequisite for the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 45% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s total heat demand in 2030 and 91% in 2050.
• Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating by 42 % in 2050 (relative to the reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards.
• In the industry sector solar collectors, geothermal energy (incl.
heat pumps), and electricity and hydrogen from renewable sources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2emissions.
Table 5.38 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heat Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.
table 5.38: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
2020
figure 5.90:eastern europe/eurasia: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - INVESTMENT
eastern europe/eurasia: future investments in the heat sector
Also in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar and geothermal and heat pump technologies need enourmous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity needs to increase by a factor of 700 for solar thermal and even by a factor of 800 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are already rather wide spread still need to increase by a factor of 3 and will remain a main pillar of heat supply
Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar themal district heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can only roughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around $ 3,648 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) -approximately $ 91 billion per year.
table 5.39: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable heat generation capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
2020
110 239 1 125 2 185 0 54 113 603
2040
145 366 2 411 4 529 8 323 158 1,630
2050
165 315 2 492 5 577 9 423 181 1,807 Biomass
Geothermal Solar thermal Heat pumps Total
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
2030
126 357 1 225 3 395 1 172 131 1,150 2009
97 97 0 0 1 1 1 1 100 100
figure 5.91:eastern europe/eurasia: investments for renewable heat generation technologies under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario
REF 2011 - 2050
5% SOLAR 3% GEOTHERMAL
82% BIOMASS 10% HEAT PUMPS
Total $ 182 billion
E[R] 2011 - 2050
24% SOLAR
29% HEAT PUMPS
8% BIOMASS 39% GEOTHERMAL
Total $ 3,648 billion
© GP/VADIM KANTOR
© GP/VADIM KANTOR
image LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.
image SOLAR PANELS IN A NATURE RESERVE IN CAUCASUSU, RUSSIA.
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - EMPLOYMENT
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
eastern europe/eurasia
eastern europe/eurasia: future employment in the energy sector
The Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more energy sector jobs in Eastern Europe/Eurasia at every stage of the projection.
• There are 2 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario in 2015, and 1.6 million in the Reference scenario.
• In 2020, there are 2 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and 1.5 million in the Reference scenario.
• In 2030, there are 1.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and 1.4 million in the Reference scenario.
Figure 5.92 shows the change in job numbers under both scenarios for each technology between 2010 and 2030. Jobs in the Reference scenario reduce gradually over the period, leading to an overall decline of 17% by 2030.
Exceptionally strong growth in renewable energy leads to an increase of 16% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2015. Jobs continue to grow until 2020.
By 2030, jobs fall below 2010 levels, but are 0.2 million more than in the Reference scenario. Renewable energy accounts for 64% of energy jobs by 2030, with biomass having the greatest share (24%).
REFERENCE ENERGY
[R]EVOLUTION
2010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030
0
Direct jobs - millions
figure 5.92:eastern europe/eurasia: employment in the energy scenario under the reference and energy [r]evolution scenarios
•
GEOTHERMAL & HEAT PUMP•
SOLAR HEAT•
OCEAN ENERGY•
SOLAR THERMAL POWER•
GEOTHERMAL POWER•
PV•
WIND•
HYDRO•
BIOMASS•
NUCLEAR•
GAS, OIL & DIESEL•
COALtable 5.40:eastern europe/eurasia: total employment in the energy sector THOUSAND JOBS
Coal
Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear Renewable Total Jobs
Construction and installation Manufacturing
Operations and maintenance Fuel supply (domestic) Coal and gas export Total Jobs
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - TRANSPORT
eastern europe/eurasia: transport
A key target in Eastern Europe/Eurasia is to introduce incentives for people to drive smaller cars, something almost completely absent today. In addition, it is vital to shift transport use to efficient modes like rail, light rail and buses, especially in the expanding large metropolitan areas. Together with rising prices for fossil fuels, these changes reduce the huge growth in car sales projected under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, energy demand from the transport sector is reduced by 5,948 PJ/a 2050, saving 60% compared to the Reference scenario. Energy demand in the transport sector will therefore decrease between 2009 and 2050 by 28% to 4,012 PJ/a (including energy for pipeline transport).
Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and batteryelectric power trains will bring large efficiency gains.
By 2030, electricity will provide 21% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 46%.
table 5.41: eastern europe/eurasia: transport energy demand by mode under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/A
2020
777 650 4,111 3,794 337 337 66 66 5,292 4,848
2040
1,156 705 5,341 2,882 429 357 72 56 6,998 4,000
2050
1,331 766 6,048 2,483 474 365 75 49 7,928 3,662 Rail
Road Domestic aviation Domestic navigation Total
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
REF E[R]
2030
936 655 4,720 3,411 382 347 71 64 6,109 4,478 2009
531 531 3,435 3,435 228 228 53 53 4,247 4,247
figure 5.93:eastern europe/eurasia: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
HYDROGEN•
ELECTRICITY•
BIOFUELS•
NATURAL GAS•
OIL PRODUCTS•
WIND•
HYDRO•
BIOMASS•
NUCLEAR•
GAS, OIL & DIESEL•
COAL© DANIEL MUELLER/GP © DANIEL MUELLER/GP
image DOCUMENTATION OF OIL POLLUTION AT OIL FIELDS IN THE KOMI-REGION, RUSSIA.THE EXPLOITATION OF OIL CAUSES A STEADY POLLUTION DUE TO OLD AND BROKEN PIPELINES. RIVER KOLVA.
image GAS FLARING IN RUSSIA.
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - CO2EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
eastern europe/eurasia
eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2emissions Whilst Eastern Europe/Eurasia`s emissions of CO2will increase by 43% between 2009 and 2050 under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 2,483 million tonnes in 2009 to 243 million tonnes in 2050.
Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.3 tonnes to 0.7 tonne. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable energy in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector.
With a share of 43% of CO2, the power sector will be the largest sources of emissions in 2050. By 2050, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s CO2emissions are 94% below 1990 levels.
eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the
resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.95. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be lower by 46% in 2050. Around 78% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
The Energy [R]evolution version aims to phases out coal and oil as fast as technically and economically possible. This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a fast introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 36% in 2030 and 78% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2035.
figure 5.94:eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
REFE[R] REFE[R] REFE[R] REFE[R] REFE[R] REFE[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Mill t/a
Million people
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
•
SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORT•
POWER GENERATIONfigure 5.95: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
PJ/a 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OCEAN ENERGY•
GEOTHERMAL•
SOLAR•
BIOMASS•
WIND•
HYDRO•
NATURAL GAS•
OIL•
COAL•
NUCLEAR147
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key results|EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - INVESTMENT & FUEL COSTS
table 5.42:eastern europe/eurasia: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savings under the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenario
INVESTMENT COSTS
DIFFERENCE E[R]VERSUS REF Conventional (fossil & nuclear) Renewables
Total
CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGS
SAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R]VERSUS REF Fuel oil
Gas Hard coal Lignite Total
$
billion $ billion $ billion $
billion $/a billion $/a billion $/a billion $/a billion $/a
2021 - 2030
-158.4 504.8 346.4
114.7 910.1 72.1 33.2 1,130.1 2011 - 2020
-161.4 291.8 130.5
51.5 144.1 29.9 8.4 234.0
2011 - 2050
-629.9 2,590.7 1,960.8
346.8 6,681.7 486.7 189.6 7,704.8
2011 - 2050 AVERAGE PER ANNUM
-15.7 64.8 49.0
8.7 167.0 12.2 4.7 192.6 2041 - 2050
-171.0 925.1 754.1
79.4 3,376.7 235.0 85.5 3,776.5 2031 - 2040
-139.1 868.9 729.8
101.3 2,250.8 149.7 62.5 2,564.3
© DENIS SINYAKOV/GP
© GP/STEVE MORGAN
image AN AERIAL VIEW OF PERMAFROST TUNDRA IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA. THE ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIAS ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.
image A VIEW OF THE NEW MUSLYUMOVO VILLAGE, JUST 1,6 KMS OUTSIDE THE OLD MUSLYUMOVO, ONE OF THE COUNTRY’S MOST LETHAL NUCLEAR DUMPING GROUNDS.
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key results|INDIA - DEMAND
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
NON OECD ASIA CHINA
OECD ASIA OCEANIA
india
india: energy demand by sector
The future development pathways for India’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.96 for the Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in India increases by 206% from the current 29,149 PJ/a to about 89,100 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand increases by 70% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 49,600 PJ/a.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level (see Figure 5.97). In the transport sector – for both freight and persons – a shift towards electric trains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicles is expected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand in the Energy [R]evolution increases in those sectors. Total electricity demand reaches 4,050 TWh/a in 2050, 4% above the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.99). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 3560 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.
figure 5.96:india: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORTREF E[R]
2009
REF E[R]
2015
REF E[R]
2020
REF E[R]
2030
REF E[R]
2040
REF E[R]
2050 PJ/a 0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
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key results|INDIA - DEMAND
figure 5.97:india: development of electricity demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORTE[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000
figure 5.98:india: development of the transport demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario
•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
DOMESTIC NAVIGATION•
DOMESTIC AVIATION•
ROAD•
RAILE[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ/a 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000
figure 5.99:india: development of heat demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario
figure 5.99:india: development of heat demand by sector in the energy [r]evolution scenario