Aportes realizados por Ana María Barrenechea

Tripathi (1996) in his attempt to compare the prediction made in panchangs with actual meteorological data for a period of sixteen years from 1980-1995 found that the extent of

Mishra (1998) from Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi reported that rain prediction made in panchangs based on ancient astrological theories are on an average better than and in some cases at par with the predictions made by the government meteorological departments through modern techniques and procedures.

A One-day Workshop-cum-Group Meeting on “Relevance of Ancient Wisdom on Weather Forecasting for Improving Agro-advisories” was held at CRIDA, Hyderabad on 29^th May, 2006. The experiences of different participating experts are summarized as follows:

Prof. M. C. Varshneya, Vice-Chancellor, Anand Agricultural University highlighted the influence of planetary system on the gaseous atmosphere. Under his leadership, a rainfall forecast calendar based on nakshatras was prepared for the year 2006 and the same was validated in the villages of Gujarat. The important feature of this calendar is the probability of occurrence of rainfall

with the forecast. The accuracy of rainfall forecast ranged between 40-70 percent across the state.

Mrs. Gayatri Devi Vasudev, an astro-meteorologist from Bangalore correlates weather prediction with movement of different planets in different houses. Accordingly, when Sun ingresses into Scorpio and Saturn in seventh position, below normal rainfall was predicted for 2006.

According to Dr. V.V.Ravi, Agricultural Research Institute, ANGRAU, the nature of long-range forecast of monsoon rainfall can be predicted depending upon the movement of Sun and Mars. Mars is ahead of Sun in 2006, hence below normal rainfall is expected which came true. He further elaborated that based on three yogas viz., Rohini Yoga, Swati Yoga and Ashadi Yoga, medium range and now casting of rainfall can be given.

Dr. Sudhakar Joshi, astro-meteorologist from Maharashtra indicated two methods of rainfall prediction, viz., Anthariksha Paddhati which predicts rain events 5-10 days in advance and the Bhowma Paddhati

pattern of plants and animals for predicting the rainfall.

Shri. Dhansukh Shah, an astro-meteorologist from Pune, Maharashtra stated the various indications in ancient literature regarding rain forecasting. He is attempting to codify and correlate such indications with modern science, there by developing a model to forecast day-to-day monsoon trends in terms of onset, dry spell, wet spell, floods, withdrawal etc. He has been giving this model one month ahead of monsoon onset and five months prior to its’ withdrawal for Saurashtra region of Gujarat. He claims the average accuracy level of his forecast is 65%.

The present authors validated certain ITKs through personal observation for rain forecasting in Andhra Pradesh in 2005 and classified them into long range, medium range and short range based on the time taken for rain occurrence.

Accordingly, positioning of nest by weaverbird can be considered as long-range rain forecast, movement of termites in rows as medium range rain forecast and, singing of cuckoo

indicators.

Continuously changing weather patterns are being acknowledged more than ever now. Precision in weather forecasts can be achieved only by strengthening the knowledge base of different available methods for improving agro-advisories. This study has lead the way in combining the efforts of both indigenous and scientific weather forecast methods in improving the opportunities

specific weather forecasts depend on farmers’ own experiences in addition to scientific information. Improved adoption of dependable weather forecasts would save farmers crores of rupees a year in terms of reducing costs associated with crop losses along with pest and disease control.

Towards this end, farmers’

participation in the development of procedures for improved weather forecasts is imperative.

Bharara, L. P., and Klaus Seeland., 1994. Indigenous Knowledge and Drought in the Arid Zone of Rajasthan: Weather Prediction As A Means To Cope With A Hazardous Climate. Internationales Asienforum (25): 53-71.

Biswas, B. C., 1990. Forecasting for Agricultural Application. Mausam 41(2): 329-334.

Chhaganbhai, C. K., 1992.

Forecasting Rain Ants. Honey Bee 3(3&4): 16.

Gupta, S. L. 1993. Traditional Agricultural Knowledge and its Rationality in Kharwar Community of Varanasi District (U.P.).

Unpublished Ph D Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi.

Hatch, J. 1983. Our Knowledge:

Traditional Farming Practices in Rural Bolivia Vol.1, Attiplano Region. Edited and Illustrated by John K Hatch.

Lishk, S. S., 1983. General principles of Ancient Indian Meteorology.

The Astrological Magazine, March 1983, 72(3): 262-263.

1994. Weather-Wise Planning In Farm Management in Handbook of Agricultural Meteorology edited by John F. Griffiths, Oxford University Press: 264-272.

Mishra, S. K., 1998. Weather Forecasting In Almanacs Relating To Farming Operations And Its Relevance In Today’s Agriculture.

Ph D Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi.

Murthy, V. R. K., 2002. Basic Principles of Agricultural Meteorology. B.S. Publications, Sultan Bazar, Hyderabad,

Murthy, V. R. K., 2005. Quantifying Techniques For Qualitative Terms In Traditional Weather Knowledge.

Journal of Research on Crops, ARIC, Hissar (in Press).

Robinson Knuthia Ngugi, 2002.

Climate Forecast Information: The Status, Needs And Expectations Among Smallholder Agro-Pastoralists In Machakos District, Kenya. IRI Technical Report 02-04 published by IRI, Lamont – Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York.

Integrating Indigenous And Scientific Rainfall Forecasting.

World Bank Indigenous Knowledge Series No.39, December 2001.

Seetharaman, R. N., 2001.

Indigenous Technical Knowledge and Seasonal Forecasting. Short Course On Capturing The Benefits Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts In Agricultural Management. Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore.

Selvanayagum, M. 1991. Some of the Traditional Beliefs Currently in Vogue at Kovilpatti. Honey Bee 2(2), IIM, Ahmedabad.

Shukla, C. J. 1989. A Scientific Understanding Behind Traditional Customs in Agriculture. Sourashtra Gandhiji Gramodhar Trust, Gohadha, Bhavnagar.

Communication Pattern in East Godavari District of Andhra Pradesh. Ph D Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi.

Tripathi, R.P.M. 1996. Indigenous Methods of Rainfall Prediction.

M.Sc. (Ag.) Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi.

Verma, L. R. 1998. A Glimpse of Indigenous Technology Knowledge for Watershed Management in Upper North-West Himalayas of India (Aparna Negi and Prem N.

Sharma – Eds.). WATMATEC, YSP University of Horticulture and Forestry, Solan, H.P. and PWMTA, Netherlands / FAO (UN), Katmandu, Nepal: 1-97.

APPENDIX – I

SELECTED NAKSHATRAS WITH PERIOD

S. No. Nakshatra Period

1. Rohini May 28 – June 7

2. Mrugashira June 8 – 21

3. Arudra June 22 – July 5

4. Punarvasu July 6 – 19

5. Pushyami July 20 – August 3

6. Ashlesha August 4 – 16

7. Makha August 17 – 30

8. Poorva Phalguni August 31 – September 13 9. Uttara Phalguni September 14 – 27

10. Hastha September 28 – October 10

11. Chittha October 11 – 24

12. Swathi October 25 – November 6

13. Visakha November 7 – 19

1.28.05-0002828192824282800005159812447 07.06 2.08.06-02886640624317392840402866400300 21.06 3.22.06-840400110810280000040142410 05.07 406.07-64369401087963595852006940108790858 19.07 5.20.07-47288282828282828284719200000540 03.08 6.04.08-88786560415666569180786560285600 16.08 7.17.08-588111408282721282858281110080000 30.08 8.31.08-408134285734243282828080004243560 13.09 9.14.09-07181728282628282840717157000857 27.09 10.28.09-285413158590000138800880701670 10.10 11.11.10-0815928694855852142848004069285500 24.10 12.25.10-2844858280282828405344280000000 06.11 13.07.11-0040425928284348040002040404348 19.11 APPENDIX – II A)NAKSHATRA-WISE RAINFALL (MM) FOR THE FOUR PANCHANGS AS AGAINST IMD ACTUALRAINFALL FROM 1994-2003 FOR ANANTHAPUR DISTRICT S.No.DateP1P2 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003199419951996199719981999200020012002

1.28.05-42404082819882828424040851028244744 07.06 2.08.06-0086640222888240029066286201782 21.06 3.22.06-18404040280812845584040405140814045 05.07 4.06.07-283698108885980284369402879819028 19.07 5.20.07-71922852106282854728471924052106552854053 03.08 6.04.08-8737828601282616916107865604180568 16.08 7.17.08-5882840171288212812583152840289727214152 30.08 8.31.08-2861134884232828102813428573280564341 13.09 9.14.09-40713157557782857284071057557766282846 27.09 10.28.09-8854285828828167028885408590816700 10.10 11.11.10-2817282882815282141682881592828485585828 24.10 12.25.10-28448281180283285344885175280328 06.11 13.07.11-4028284282802848000404219402843280 19.11 Appendix – II contd… ANANTHAPUR S.No.DateP3P4 19941995199619971998199920002001200220031994199519961997199819992000200120022003

1.28.05-200501119812474 07.06 2.08.06-0029066022317392 21.06 3.22.06-18000110142105 05.07 4.06.07-636901083923191812 19.07 5.20.07-719201210615014753 03.08 6.04.08-2133386520156261691 16.08 7.17.08-183151110171972721112 30.08 8.31.08-061134285334235631 13.09 9.14.09-0713117557726202576 27.09 10.28.09-8854131185914970167013 10.10 11.11.10-481715906981585214168 24.10 12.25.10-53485811750330 06.11 13.07.11-00021900380 19.11 Appendix – II contd… ANANTHAPUR S.No.DateIMD 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003

1.28.05-0011282828283928280000404581395240 07.06 2.08.06-0288805347732828285058288053080068 21.06 3.22.06-873648788002800080706640043 05.07 4.06.07-86079486044587148198007948604408488 19.07 5.20.07-792882827372828282879430000068040 03.08 6.04.08-8846475949448473728046475928440072 16.08 7.17.08-1418736982829283528141337300140000 30.08 8.31.08-536709564595037282806000595077044 13.09 9.14.09-0639281928282828285963498300085082 27.09 10.28.09-2867575662000082240088042229081 10.10 11.11.10-08562869524584812811300406929450066 24.10 12.25.10-2834042280282828685343280000000 06.11 13.07.11-00437247282844400400080404044400 19.11 Appendix – II contd… B) NAKSHATRA-WISE RAINFALL (MM) FOR THE FOUR PANCHANGS AS AGAINST IMD ACTUAL RAINFALL FROM 1994-2003 FOR RANGA REDDY DISTRICT S.No.DateP1P2 19941995199619971998199920002001200220031994199519961997199819992000200120022003

1.28.05-454051028288828284540510400283952 07.06 2.08.06-888805328288885081058028470288 21.06 3.22.06-297364722888028436973647247708040 05.07 4.06.07-348798608871803460794820448310 19.07 5.20.07-84329686737286882879436968677728680 03.08 6.04.08-859462859928282872750464759498073 16.08 7.17.08-1418336963288443581417333692354292875 30.08 8.31.08-2846708859103728413287095641907773 3.09 9.14.09-5963288359551428502859630835955542828 27.09 10.28.09-2246717562282822915282246708620222915 10.10 11.11.10-2828162882852881662885628295245848 24.10 12.25.10-283402814032802853340254402800 06.11 13.07.11-402828727280284000043722840284428 19.11 Appendix – II contd… RANGA REDDY DISTRICT S.No.DateP3P4 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003199419951996199719981999200020012002

1.28.05-50110058139120 07.06 2.08.06-50581058053773994228 21.06 3.22.06-2973243273066003 05.07 4.06.07-34203948204418318198 19.07 5.20.07-3943292827371128670 03.08 6.04.08-35196719944847332 16.08 7.17.08-14133336923142943574 30.08 8.31.08-136309524191037734 3.09 9.14.09-19239831915141055042 27.09 10.28.09-224271756221922291541 10.10 11.11.10-1134316029125848166 24.10 12.25.10-5330214030028 06.11 13.07.11-03332700400 19.11 Appendix – II contd… RANGA REDDY DISTRICT S.No.DateIMD 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003

128.05-00828282828282828000040471172852 07.06 208.06-02886815016647322828584028681500700 21.06 322.06-84611488088428000804070480 05.07 406.07-812620040105627079681210020040105620868 19.07 520.07-139288282825282819281395000000500 03.08 604.08-81489107448071565651808910744407100 16.08 717.08-9781241038282828182897281240080000 30.08 831.08-65841901154979322820080004979720 13.09 914.09-057028282828262828555740189000844 27.09 1028.09-28268147502070000820800880422320 10.10 1111.10-0814928121671366364285600401212813600 24.10 1225.10-281059662802828286211150190000000 06.11 1307.11-808149682828218480560080404021848 19.11 Appendix – II contd… C)NAKSHATRA-WISE RAINFALL (MM) FOR THE FOUR PANCHANGS AS AGAINST IMD ACTUAL RAINFALL FROM 1994- 2003 FOR VISAKHAPATNAM DISTRICT S.No.DateP1P2 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003199419951996199719981999200020012002

128.05-40409652828872828404096540028285240 07.06 208.06-808681502828881580310682816603281 21.06 322.06-2846114483608828456946114487640884445 05.07 406.07-288200010588798028126200402862839028 19.07 520.07-850281091182528508281395067109118652850094 03.08 604.08-854892844831282851460891074480805611 16.08 717.08-97828103159288681889765281032811928285885 30.08 831.08-28874188498322888284190115280726160 13.09 914.09-55572818916446826442855570189164461262628128 27.09 1028.09-20826828502882823211282082680820702232110 10.10 1111.10-162828288288286434016814928286713663828 24.10 1225.10-28105928888288281111059823159280828 06.11 1307.11-56282849828828488008149284028218280 19.11 Appendix – II contd… VISAKHAPATNAM DISTRICT S.No.DateP3P4 19941995199619971998199920002001200220031994199519961997199819992000200120022003

128.05-00965071177120 07.06 208.06-180310281501667321211 21.06 322.06-6961148360398445 05.07 406.07-42126200010522303968121 19.07 520.07-1395067109118254101994 03.08 604.08-461489107444031565611 16.08 717.08-9765124103159119160681885 30.08 831.08-65871901154979326120 13.09 914.09-151701891646126264128 27.09 1028.09-2082681475020792223211176 10.10 1111.10-163531490121671366364340 24.10 1225.10-111101966231190544562 06.11 1307.11-16838149680021880 19.11 Appendix – II contd… VISAKHAPATNAM DISTRICT S.No.DateIMD 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003