El Apoyo del supervisor

Population Growth and National Income

13.1 DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES

The first general census of India was conducted in 1872, but only the second one of 1881 is considered to be sufficiently accurate to be comparable with the subsequent ones, which were conducted at decennial intervals, the most recent of which was in 1991. In 1901 there were 238 million people, in 1911 252 million and in 1921 only 251 million. After this period of intermittent stagnation caused by famines and diseases, there was a steady increase. Initially, the rate of population growth was moderate, but later on it accelerated so that the resultant curve more and more approximated a parabolic ascent. From 1921 to 1941, the growth rate increased from 1.1 to 1.4 per cent. After the partition of India, 381 million people were counted in the new Republic of India in 1951. From 1951 to 1984, the population approximately doubled (1981=683 million). If this trend continues, the next doubling of the population will take only 22 instead of 33 years (that is, by 2006 India will have a population of 1.3 billion).

The results of the census of 1991 once more disappointed those who had hoped for an indication that the demographic transition was impending in India. Total population amounted to 844 million, the annual exponential growth rate stood at 2.11 per cent. In the four decades after 1951 this rate had increased from 1.25 to 2.22. The recent figure at least shows a break of the rising trend, but not yet a clear sign of that transition which happens when birth rates decline to the same extent as death rates. The control of epidemics has reduced the death rate in India considerably. Infant mortality is still fairly high (91 in 1000 live births), but the death rates registered in general amount to 10.2 per 1000 as contrasted with birth rates of 30.5 per 1000 (1989).

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The female deficit which is a tragic feature of India’s demographic profile has once more increased. The sex ratio stood at 929 women to 1000 men in 1991 (1981=934). This means that a total of about 30 million women are ‘missing’ in India. The deficit is mostly due to some states in Northern India whose population growth rate also happens to be above the national average. If they were to eliminate this deficit this would probably mean that for some time their growth rate would increase even more, but if it is true that both high birth rates and the female deficit are due to a general neglect of women, an improvement in their position would finally lead to the demographic transition. A good indicator of the position of women is female literacy, which has increased from 29 to 39 per cent (1981 to 1991) while male literacy increased from 56 to 64 per cent. But the large state of Uttar Pradesh which has above-average growth rates and a high female deficit (sex ratio 882:1000) also shows a very low rate of female literacy (26 per cent).

The causes for this syndrome of backwardness can be traced to the traditions of a patriarchal peasant society. Most of the female deficit arises in the second decade of life and this is probably related to the still very widespread habit of early marriage. A young daughter-in-law who is not yet a mother can easily be replaced;

therefore not much is done for her health care. There may even be the temptation of welcoming her demise, as a second marriage also means a second dowry. This temptation is reduced when the daughter-in-law is expected to inherit a share of her parents’

property in due course. Traditionally, Hindu daughters were not entitled to such inheritance and the dowry was considered to be a compensation for that drawback. Since the reform of Hindu law, daughters do inherit and the demand for a dowry has been prohibited by law. Nevertheless, it is not easy to distinguish between gifts and a dowry. Such gifts are gladly received, but the right of inheritance is also exercised, and this gives a great deal of leverage to the in-laws rather than to the married woman. The conservative opponents of this reform had predicted this. The structure of rural society, particularly in Northern India, prevents the achievement of more independence by women, and their right of inheritance only enhances the position of the husand’s family. At least that may protect those who have something to inherit from the sufferings of the poor, who cannot look forward to any inheritance. Once the married woman becomes a mother, preferably the mother of a son, she is much better off and can safely look forward to the time when she herself graduates to the position of a mother-in-law.

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175 Due to rapid population growth, India is a ‘young nation’ in the literal sense of the term. Children below the age of 5 years make up 13 per cent of the population, and children aged between 5 and 15 constitute another 25 per cent; thus 38 per cent of the population are of an age at which they normally should still attend school.

Unfortunately, however, this attendance is rather limited, particularly in rural areas, where children above the age of 10 are needed for help in the family farm or in other odd jobs. The age-groups that are normally gainfully employed (15–60 years) make up 56 per cent of the population, whereas people older than 60 form only a small percentage of the population—5.5 per cent. Pensions and old age benefits are thus not a problem in India, since in any case most old people do not receive such benefits.

It is a characteristic feature of the Indian economy that from the beginning of the present century until 1987 only about 10 per cent of the population have been employed in the industrial sector in the strict sense of the term. In absolute numbers this has, of course, meant an enormous expansion of the workforce. However, the stagnant percentage shows that there has been hardly any important shift in the workforce from agriculture to industry. This will be discussed in greater detail in later sections of this chapter, which deal with national income and with urbanisation.

The acreage of cultivated land cannot be extended any more as a great deal of marginal land has been added in recent decades that should rather be released for afforestation. In this context, cultivated land becomes even more valuable and is guarded by those who own it and who can draw upon the growing number of landless labourers.

This development need not be a bad one, if the labourers earned a decent wage and productivity increased. But this happens only in a few areas of India, whereas in others the exploitation of labour and the inadequate use of the productive capacity of the soil go hand in hand. He who owns land can sit back and relax, waiting for the labourers supplied by population growth, who will till the soil for him for a meagre wage.

The well-known theory of W.Arthur Lewis, who thought that in developing countries the rural sector would offer an unlimited supply of cheap labour to the industrial sector, which would thus be able to make rapid progress, has been controverted by the Indian experience. It is not the industrial sector, but the landowners who exploit this rural reserve army of labour. These landowners therefore do not need to modernise their operations. It is an irony of fate that India’s planners must be grateful for this capacity of the rural sector

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to retain labour, because the urban industrial sector is unable to absorb it. Population growth thus stabilises the existing social structure and the traditional modes of production rather than subverting them. Seen from this perspective, the praise for India’s slow but steady growth is a consolation for the rich, but a harsh verdict for the rural poor, who are condemned to hard labour with hardly any reward. From a demographic point of view, India’s future does not look too good. Seen from this perspective the fact that the rate of economic growth stays just a little ahead of population growth assumes a special importance. Slow growth supports the art of survival of the poor, who produce just enough to make it possible, on this modest but broad foundation, for the superstructure of modern Indian industry to be constructed by a minority of the people who have managed to escape from rural poverty.

13.2 NATIONAL INCOME: THE PROBLEMS OF