Aprendizaje y desarrollo del Pensamiento

On the morning of 17 December 2010, following a confrontation with police over lack of payment for a bribe, a 26 year-old street vendor called Mohamed Bouazizi, tired of poor treatment, went to the nearby governor’s office to

complain. When he was denied a hearing, he bought some gasoline, poured it on himself and, standing in front of the government building, set himself on fire. He died of his burns 18 days later at a hospital in Tunis (Beamont, 2011).

There has been significant media coverage of the event in Tunisia in December 2010 that subsequently unleashed further protests across much of the region. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation became the rallying cry for popular and largely non-violent protests, and these quickly brought down the Tunisian government. Similar protests then erupted in Egypt, where the political opposition was well organised, with the same result. At the time of writing, violence in Libya dominates the headlines. In several other countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, popular protests have also started to expose widespread discontent with the political status quo.

To evaluate the effects of these protests on renewable electricity development, it is important to consider their immediate effects on the one hand and their potential longer-term effects on the other. The immediate effects are to heighten uncertainty in the region, with a significant adverse effect on the investment climate across the economy, not just for renewables. While the activities of organisations like the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, in terms of project planning and finance, do not seem to have been affected, project developers doing business in the region have in many cases suspended operations and evacuated key personnel (Kanter, 2011).

The longer-term future is highly uncertain, not just in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, but also in many other MENA countries. Whether or not the protests result quickly in more democratic government, investors also need stability, transparency and accountability, in the machinery of government and regulation, as well as the political process. A shift towards this as a result of the political reforms could set the scene for renewed economic growth and accelerated investment. On the other hand, continuing turmoil and uncertainty could undermine progress and investment.

Investors also

need stability,

transparency and

accountability in

the machinery of

government and

regulation, as well

as the political

process.

Renewables progress check

Civil unrest and protest in North Africa

Political leadership

The results of political protests and upheavals in the MENA region are likely to have an important effect on political leadership for renewable energy development in the region and cooperation with Europe. It is too early to predict whether the effect will be positive or negative, and over what time frame this will occur. As long as the current events fail to result in greater inclusiveness, then the visible levels of popular discontent provide powerful strategic arguments against Europe becoming dependant on electricity imports from North Africa as well as political arguments against supporting some North African governments through foreign direct investment.

To the extent that current events do result in greater democracy and accountability, either throughout the entire region or on a country-by-country basis, then it could eventually have the opposite effect, creating political arguments for European support to new governments in the region. To the extent that a democratic shift takes place across many countries, it could also create the conditions for greater cooperation between North African countries, with a spillover into market integration and harmonisation of planning and permitting rules as envisaged by the original 2050 roadmap.

Whether or not the political events result in greater democracy, one can speculate that a response of governments in North Africa will be an increased attention on job creation. Given the substantial

employment benefits associated with e.g. Concentrating Solar Power development in North Africa (Gazzo et al., 2011; Komendantova and Patt., in review), this could create an additional political argument for renewable energy expansion.

Investment climate

In the short term, the political turmoil in North Africa is likely to have a negative effect on investor confidence, with investors waiting to see how the situation in individual territories and across the region develops. Longer term, a move to more open and transparent government with clear governance and accountability could provide a stimulus to investment - earlier research found that the single largest perceived risk for the private sector associated with doing business in the region was not political turmoil or terrorism, but rather the threat of delays and cost overruns resulting from bureaucracy and corruption (Komendantova et al., 2009).

However continued political instability – politically, economically or socially – is likely to deter foreign investors in particular, whilst any changes to legal or regulatory regimes will need to be evaluated, with investors looking for political commitment and a track record of delivery.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, recent civil unrest and turmoil has had a negative impact on renewables development in the region. Whether this negative impact is short-term or long-term depends on whether and how quickly the countries involved can move towards more stable and effective governance.