2. 1. Argentina bajo la sombra del terrorismo

The empirical study that follows is divided into four chapters, with distinc-tive themes. Together, they cover all parts of the model that concluded Chap-ter 4. The theme of the first chapChap-ter (ChapChap-ter 6) is women’s likelihood of living in unions. More precisely, the chapter asks and answers three ques-tions. First, it asks whether women’s earning opportunities (attachment to the labor market) reduce their likelihood of living in unions (as hypothesis 4 claims). Second, it asks if generous family policies increase women’s likeli-hood of living in unions (as hypothesis 5 claims). Third, it asks whether gen-erous dual-earner policies mainly increase women’s likelihood of living in unions by increasing the likelihood of women with high earning opportuni-ties living in unions (as hypothesis 6 claims). Due to a lack of data, the hy-potheses regarding women’s union formation and union dissolution that were presented in Chapter 4 are not tested directly. Instead, the chapter tests the combined effects of women’s earning opportunities and the generosity of family policies on women’s likelihood of living in unions. The hypotheses tested in the chapter are summed up in Figure 5.3.

Figure 5.3. Hypotheses tested in Chapter 6

Comment: The dashed arrows indicate negative effects.

The generosity of family policies The likelihood of women living

in unions

Women’s earning opportunities

THE DESIGN OF THE STUDY The theme of the second empirical chapter (Chapter 7) is women’s choice of type of union, with the focus being on how women’s earning opportunities and the generosity of family policies affect the likelihood of women living in unstable unions. Specifically, the chapter asks two questions. First, it asks whether women with relatively high earning potentials are more likely than women with relatively low earning opportunities to live in unstable unions (as hypothesis 7 claims). Second, it asks whether generous dual-earner poli-cies have an independent additional positive effect on the likelihood of wom-en living in unstable unions (as hypothesis 8 claims). It also tests to examine the extent to which religiosity affects the same likelihood. The hypotheses tested in the chapter are summed up in Figure 5.4.

Figure 5.4. Hypotheses tested in Chapter 7

Comment: The thick arrows indicate positive effects.

The theme of the third empirical chapter (Chapter 8) is women’s fertility decisions. The focus is on how the generosity of family policies and union instability interacts in shaping the likelihood of women experiencing a first-, second-, and higher-order births. Three specific questions are asked. First, the chapter asks whether union instability reduces women’s likelihood of having a first, second, and third child (as hypothesis 1 claims). Second, it asks whether generous dual-earner policies reduce the negative effect of union instability on women’s likelihood of having children of different parities (as hypothesis 2 claims). Finally, it asks whether generous family policies have a direct positive effect on women’s likelihood of having children of different parities (as hypothesis 3 claims). The hypotheses tested in the chapter are summed up in Figure 5.5.

The generosity of dual-earner policies

Union instability Women’s earning opportunities

BEDROOM POLITICS

The aim of the fourth empirical chapter (Chapter 9) is to validate the find-ings of Chapter 8 by investigating how the generosity of family policies and union instability shape women’s fertility plans. The questions posed in the chapter are identical to those in Chapter 8, with the exception that the de-pendent variable is not women’s likelihood of having a child, but their likeli-hood of planning to have a child in the future. Because of the similarity with the questions in Chapter 8, the hypotheses tested in the chapter are summed up in Figure 5.5.

Figure 5.5. Hypotheses tested in Chapters 8 and 9

Comments: Dashed arrows indicate negative effects. Thick arrows indicate positive effects.

In addition, Appendix A explores the link between the generosity of dual-earner policies and women’s, and then especially mothers’, labor force partic-ipation (see Figure 5.6).

Figure 5.6. Hypotheses tested in Appendix A

Comment: Thick arrows indicate positive effects.

The generosity family policies

Union instability

Fertility

Women’s labor force participa-tion

The generosity of dual-earner policies

THE DESIGN OF THE STUDY Together, the four chapters and the Appendix A make up the empirical part of the study. More specific discussions of the design of the studies and varia-bles used in the chapters are included in each chapter.

The findings of the empirical chapters are wrapped up and put in a larger perspective in a concluding chapter. However, all findings and their direct theoretical implications are briefly discussed in the empirical chapters. The order of the chapters has been decided by the normal ordering of events as they take place. Usually, a woman first decides on whether to live with a partner and how to do so. Then she decides whether she wants to have chil-dren with her partner. Of course, the order of events is different in some cases. More important, the decisions are intertwined with each other (indeed, that is one of the main thrusts of this study). However, the chapters have to be ordered, and the usual ordering is the one that comes most naturally to mind.

BEDROOM POLITICS

6

The likelihood of women living