Articulación Nación Territorio y coordinación Interinstitucional para la implementación del componente de

Climate refers to the average weather experienced typically over a 30 year period, and can consist of a variety of parameters e.g. temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, air pressure and dew point temperature. The climate has changed many times during the history of our planet (Pidwirny, 2006), as a result of three principal factors:

i. natural events which have changed the climate, either locally, regionally or globally, such as volcanic eruptions,

ii. the amount of energy released from the sun; and, iii. in response to human activities.

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The last four decades have witnessed extensive research concerning climatic fluctuations and trends of climatic parameters in different regions and for different time periods. A large number of studies have examined trends and variability of climatic parameters through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from the global to the local (e.g. Jones et al. 1999; Easterling et al. 1999; Hansen et al. 2007; Giannini et al., 2008; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Tayanc et al., 2009).

According to the Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), the global surface temperature has increased by 0.74 °C ± 0.18 °C (the mean values calculated from 1906-2005) and precipitation has risen north of 30° N (the mean values calculated from 1906-2005), with strongest downward trends in precipitation observed in the Sahel region of African occurring during the period 1950-2005. These tends support the predictions of temperature increases made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that global warming during the last 25 years has increased at a rate of about 0.02 °C a-1. The 20th century was the warmest century during the past 1000 years, with rapid changes over Libya in the last 40 years (El-Tantawi 2005), with temperature increases identified in many regions throughout the world (Repapis and Philandras 1988; Karl et al 1993; Jones et al., 1999; Hulme et al 2001; Alexander et al 2006; Domonkos and Tar, 2003; Hansen et al, 2007; IPCC 2007). The United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (Parry et al., 2009) estimated that annual spending adapting to some of the worst impacts of climate change could be $49-171bn in developed countries and $22-105bn in developing countries by 2030.

1.3.2 Climate change across North Africa and the Mediterranean

Libya is of particular interest as it includes areas which experience both a Mediterranean and North Africa climate, and is in a region where human occupation and lifestyle are highly susceptible to climate change. Over the last 20 years a small number of studies, have considered the climate of Libya; particularly temperature and precipitation, with the findings identifying conflicting patterns and rates of change in temperature and precipitation (e.g. Lama, 1996; Zikree 1998; Ahmed,

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2002; Massoud 2004; El-Tantawi, 2005; El Kenawy et al., 2009; Ageena et al., 2012; Ageena et al., 2013).

A large body of research has been undertaken on Mediterranean and North Africa climate variability particularly focused on temperature (e.g. Repapis and Philandras 1988; Nasrallah and Balling 1993; Ben-Gai et al. 1999; Hasanean 2001; Goubanova and Li, 2007; Bartolini et al 2008; Hatzianastassiou et al., 2008; Dousset et al., 2011; Yu et al., 2011; Boccolari and Malmusi, 2013) and precipitation (Goubanova and Li, 2007; Hatzianastassiou et al., 2008; Caloiero et al., 2011; De Luis, 2009; Reiser and Kutiel, 2011; Unal et al., 2012), with most identifying a general decrease in precipitation across the Mediterranean basin; these changes in precipitation patterns have drastically reduced food production capacity and increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines (Parry et al., 2004)

A number of studies have identified that climate change could significantly modify existing water resources and balance in the: USA (Loáiciga et al 2000; Croley et al., 2003), Australia (Ducci et al., 2008; Ali et al., 2012), Europe (Eckhardt and Ulbrich, 2003), Africa (Brown et al., 2011) and across the Mediterranean (Ceballos- Barbancho et al., 2008; Polemi and Casarano 2008), with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation directly and indirectly affecting many factors including groundwater budgets (Loaiciga et al., 2000).

Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change across the Mediterranean; with higher temperatures potentially reducing yields of important crops. A considerable literature exists on the potential implications of climatic change on the productivity of crops and impacts of increased aridity (Emgailee 2005; Huntingford et al., 2005; Kafle and Bruins, 2009; Tayanc et al., 2009). In 2005, nearly half (40%) of the economically active population in developing countries of world relied on agriculture for its livelihood, with approximately 75% of the world’s poor living in rural areas (Nelson et al., 2009). Crop and livestock yields are directly affected by changes in climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration as well as the frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts, floods, frosts and wind storms.

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Climate change will likely have the strongest effect on developing countries and countries where the agricultural sector is of high importance for the country’s economy; for example, Gonzales (2001) has identified that vegetation zones shifted southwest in the West African Sahel by 25 to 30 km during the period 1945-1993, at an average rate of 500 to 600 ma-1.

A number of studies throughout the world have been undertaken on climatic change and potential implications on the environment (e.g., Al-Adiwish, 2000; Bou-Zeid1 and El-Fadel, 2002; Al-Abidee, 2001; Al-Hasee, 2007; Kafle and Bruins, 2009; Schilling et al., 2012), with the studies by Basu and Samet (2002); Vandentorren et al. (2004); Canouï-Poitrine et al. (2006); Pascal et al. (2006); Robine et al. (2008); Gosling et al. (2009) and Yu et al. (2011) addressing concerns relating to the implication of climatic change to human health. The implications of climate change on the environment and human health are notable, particularly in the North Africa and Mediterranean regions and indicate significant increases in morbidity and mortality. The implications of climate change are worrying for the Mediterranean region as socioeconomic scenarios indicate a rapidly growing population and consequently growing human pressure on natural resources (Thomas, 2008; Sowers et al 2011), with the study by Schilling et al. (2012) suggesting that these pressures may contribute to increased social and political instability.