ASOCIACIÓN AGROPECUARIA VARIABLE

Abstract

The Provisional Census Report 2011 revealed continuity of gender discrimination in Indian society which has been reflected in the adverse sex ratio of the population. The lowest juvenile sex ratio in last fifty years squarely points towards India's failure to stop sex selective abortion of female fetuses despite laws against it and campaigns to promote goodwill towards girls. Further, the improved trends in female literacy and narrowing gender gap in the literacy rate had little impact on juvenile sex ratio. On the other hand; the decline in fertility and strong preference for small family norm has increased the existing gender bias. The economic growth will not be able to improve the scenario; what is needed is strict restriction on the use of technology in the womb and an incentive package for the girl children strong enough to outweigh the familial and social burden on their parents.

Keywords: Gender Disparity, Adverse Sex Ratio, Juvenile Sex Ratio, Missing Women, Sex Selective Abortion

Introduction

The adverse female to male sex ratio has once again come to the fore after the recent publication of 2011 provisional census report. Gender composition reflects natality (sex distribution at birth), mortality and migration character of a given population. Distribution pattern of male and female in a population affects relative roles and economic relationships. There are different indicators for measuring gender equality in a population and sex ratio is one of them. Sex ratio is defined in the Census of India as the number of females per 1,000 males in the population. Adverse sex ratio is an important indicator of gender inequality which demands closer scrutiny. There had been a steady decline in the sex ratio in all India level during 1901 and 1971. It was 972 females per 1000 males in 1901 which had declined to 930 in 1971. Thereafter, the

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* Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Politics, Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan, West Bengal-731235.

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sex ratio has been fluctuating around 1971 level with all time low of 927 in 1991. The last two censuses have revealed some apparently contradictory results. While there has been trend reversal and thus improvement in the overall sex ratio in favour of female since 1991, the child sex ratio of the population in (0-6) age group continued to decline. It declined from 945 in 1991 to 927 in 2001 and further to the all time low level of 914 in 2011 (Figure-1). Thus there are two issues at hand: First, the nature and trend of improvement in the overall sex ratio and second, deteriorating juvenile sex ratio. This apparent contradiction has aroused the concern of scholars and policy makers.

The existing literature on the issue of adverse sex ratio in population composition is quite rich. It is widely believed that in the absence of any form of discrimination against women, they tend to have lower age-specific mortality rates than men.1 But there are number of studies that have analysed the causes of the adverse sex ratio in population count in terms of the higher female death rates up to the age of 45 years or so; and that discrimination against girls and neglect of women are responsible for the higher rates (Mitra, 2001; Visaria, 1971). The reversal of the trend in overall sex ratio can also be explained partly by the outcome of a narrowing gap in gender differentials in adult mortality (Krishnaji and James, 2002). The more recent studies, however, concerned mainly with the declining child sex ratio. It has been suggested that more and more female babies are missing because of the increasing practice of female foeticide (Agnihotri, 2000, 2003; Bose, 2001; Sudha and Rajan, 1999). The micro studies conducted in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat showed that deficit of girls among the second and third child was much greater among educated women with financial affluence. At the same time, people from backward social groups and less educated also sought information on the sex of the foetus which indicated that the practice is spreading across socio economic groups (Visaria, 2008). Agnihotri (2003) while analyzing similar results of the first population census of this millennium observed a number of significant changes in the sex ratio patterns in the country. Firstly, the juvenile sex ratio decline among the 0-6 age group was sharper in the urban areas than in the rural areas. Second, the traditional north-south division of sex ratios2 had become blurred with the ‘northernisation’ of sex ratios

in southern part of India. Therefore, he had opined that the popular explanations such as migration, under count or biologically ordained high sex ratio at birth couldn’t properly explain the sharp decline in juvenile sex ratio in urban areas. The sex selective abortion or female foeticide that has gained currency since 1980s might have been the important factor behind the phenomenon. We will show in this paper that nothing substantial could be done to rectify this perverse trend during the last decade.

Figure 1

This paper has been organised in five sections. In section II we have tried to estimate missing women assuming some benchmark overall sex ratio. Section III deals with juvenile sex ratio (0-6 years) and then we take up the problem at the disaggregated level in section IV. Finally, in section V we make concluding observations.

Missing Women

According to the provisional population totals of Census 2011, out of a total population of 1,21,01,93,422 persons, 62,37,24,248 are males and 58,64,69,174 females. As per this, the sex ratio of India is 940. The sex ratio at the National level has risen by seven points

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since the last Census in 2001 and this is the highest since 1971. In fact there is no uniformity in the composition of population by gender across countries of the world. Normally it is expected that if there is no discrimination against women, the sex ratio would favour women and thus in developed countries, women outnumber the men. It has been estimated that around the year 2011, the world will have 984 females against 1000 males.3 Table 1 presents sex ratio in the 10 most populous countries of the world during 2001 and 2011.

Table-1: Sex Ratio of Selected Countries

Country 2001 2011 World 986 984 China 944 926 India 933 940 USA 1029 1025 Indonesia 1004 988 Brazil 1025 1042 Pakistan 938 943 Russian Fed 1140 1167 Bangladesh 958 978 Japan 1041 1055 Nigeria 1016 987

Notes: (i) 2001-World Population Prospects (mid year estimates) 1998 & (ii) 2011-World Population Prospects 2008 revision UN.

Source: Census of India 2011, Provisional Population Totals, Paper 1, India Series 1, p.78.

Table-2: India among Its Neighbouring Countries

Countries 2001 2011

China 944 926 Pakistan 938 943 Bangladesh 958 978 Sri Lanka 1010 1034 Nepal 1005 1014 Afghanistan 930 931 Bhutan 919 897 Myanmar 1011 1048

Source: Same as Table 1

It may be seen from Table 1 that in USA, Russian Federation, Japan and Brazil females outnumber males, in the other six countries the balance is tilted towards the males. Among the most populous countries China has the lowest ratio of females to males in the population followed by India in 2011. Further, Table 2 compares sex ratio in Indian population with the same among its neighbouring countries. It is evident from the Table 2 that while in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Nepal number of females outnumbers their mail counterpart, the opposite picture is found in other countries. This table also reveals that except China where female male ratio deteriorated during 2001-2011, in all other countries the same ratio has improved in favour of the females. There is much direct evidence, in India and in many other countries with adverse female to male ratio, of relative neglect of the health and well-being of women, resulting in a survival disadvantage of females vis-à-vis males over long periods.4

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Figure 2

We may use some benchmark sex ratio for the sake of comparison to arrive at a figure of ‘missing women’ in India. Let us make a very modest assumption that the sex ratio would have been unity had there been no gender discrimination in the society. We would find that there are 37 million missing women in India in 2011. In 2001 the number of missing women was 36 million and it was 24 million in 1981. 5 The trend growth of missing women is depicted in figure-2. Thus we find that with the growth of population, the absolute difference in number between men and women increased throughout the period which means that increasing number of women are missing from India because of active discrimination against women in the Indian society.

Juvenile Sex Ratio

The provisional population total for 2011 reveals that the proportion of child population in the age group of 0-6 years to total population is 13.1 % while the corresponding figure in 2001 was 15.9 %. So there has been 2.8 percentage points decline during the last decade. It indicated a decline in the fertility rate of the Indian population. The number of child population has declined by 5 million in comparison with 2001 census. Interestingly, out of the total decline, the decline in female child is almost 3 million. Therefore, the proportion of female child in the total child population has

declined from 48.11 % in 2001 to 47.76 % in 2011. The decline in fertility and strong preference for small family norm does raise the possibility of enhanced gender bias. We have seen that while the overall sex ratio has improved after 1991, the juvenile sex ratio (0-6 years) continued to decline since 1961 (figure 1). The juvenile sex ratio, for the country as a whole, has declined by 6.35 per cent between 1961 and 2011 or from 976 to 914 girls per 1,000 boys. During the last decade the ratio has declined by 13 points. This trend of unfavourable juvenile sex ratio may be the result of discrimination against girls in the younger ages and strong son preference.6 This is reflected in the gender differences in age specific mortality rate presented in Table-3.

Table 3: Difference in ASMR

(Female Mortality Rate-Male Mortality Rate) between Female and Male in India during 1971-2007

Age group 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 0-4 5.6 4.1 1.9 2.2 1.7 5-9 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 10-14 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 15-19 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 20-24 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 25-29 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5 30-34 1.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 35-39 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.7 40-44 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -2.8 45-49 -2.0 -2.0 -3.4 -3.3 -3.8 50-54 -4.7 -4.4 -4.3 -3.4 -5.3 55-59 -7.1 -6.8 -7.4 -5.7 -4.3 60-64 -4.3 -6.7 -9.0 -8.2 -6.9 65-69 -10.9 -10.4 -8.4 -10.8 -9.2 70+ -1.8 -9.8 -9.7 -14.8 -12.7 All ages 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.1

Source: Based on Table: 8 in Registrar General, India (2010), GOI, pp. 36-37.

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Table-3 clearly reveals that the mortality rates of female children in the 0-4 age group continues to be higher throughout the period 1971-2007 compared to that of male children of the same age group. It also indicates that only after the attainment of 30-34 age group that the relative survival chance of females improves. The National Family Health Survey-3 Report (2007) also corroborates this. It has been reported that the infant mortality rate is marginally higher for females (58) than males (56) for the five year period preceding the survey. However, in the neonatal period, like elsewhere, mortality in India is lower for females (37) than for males (41). As children get older, females are exposed to higher mortality than males. Females have 36 % higher mortality than males in the post-neonatal period, but a 61 % higher mortality than males at age 1-4 years.7 Thus it may be inferred that the measures taken to improve the child sex ratio in India after the publication of the 2001 Census report did not yield desired result. Further, prolonged duration of gender differentials in survivorship in the younger ages has led to continuation and declining juvenile sex ratio. Further, it has also been suggested by the researchers that continuously declining juvenile sex ratio can not be explained solely by the discrimination against girls. The advent and wide use of new technologies such as sonogram which can detect sex of the foetus in mother's womb at reasonable early stage of pregnancy might have rendered the practice of discrimination against girl children useless in Indian society particularly for the rich, educated and urban families. They can always go for sex selective abortion without resorting to age old practice of discrimination against girl children.8 This may be the real cause behind declining juvenile sex ratio even though there has been narrowing of difference of age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) of boys and girls in the age group of 0-4 years during 1971 to 2007 (Table-3).

Gender Composition of Population at Disaggregated Level

The overall sex ratio at the national level has increased by 7 points since 2001 to reach 940 at census 2011. All the major states except Bihar, Gujarat and Jammu & Kashmir have shown improvements in sex ratio as compared to Census 2001 (Table 4). These three states which witnessed decline in the overall sex ratio have 14.61 % of total Indian population in 2011. During 1991-2001, the sex

ratio increased by 6 points at the national level. However, in nine states the sex ratio deteriorated and they constituted 26.41 % of total population in 2001. Thus, it may be said that larger proportion of Indian population is witnessing improvement in the overall sex ratio in 2011. The top three states with highest values of overall sex ratio are Kerala (1084), Tamil Nadu (955) and Andhra Pradesh (992). The lowest sex ratios among the states, on the other hand, have been recorded by Haryana (877), Jammu & Kashmir (883) and Sikkim (889). Gujarat and Jammu & Kashmir are the only states where overall sex ratio has declined in consecutive census years.

Table 4: Overall Sex-Ratio (Females per 1000 Males)

India / Difference Difference

States Census Years points points

1991 2001 2011 2001-1991 2011-2001 INDIA 927 933 940 6 7 Andhra Pradesh 972 978 992 6 14 Arunachal Pradesh 859 893 920 34 27 Assam 923 935 954 12 19 Bihar 911 919 916 8 -3 Chhattisgarh 985 989 991 4 2 Goa 967 961 968 -6 7 Gujarat 934 920 918 -14 -2 Haryana 865 861 877 -4 16 Himachal Pradesh 976 968 974 -8 6 Jammu & Kashmir 896 892 883 -4 -9

Jharkhand 922 941 947 19 6 Karnataka 960 965 968 5 3 Kerala 1036 1058 1084 22 26 Madhya Pradesh 931 919 930 -12 11 Maharashtra 934 922 925 -12 3 Manipur 958 974 987 16 13 Meghalaya 955 972 986 17 14 Mizoram 921 935 975 14 40 Nagaland 888 900 931 12 31

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India / Difference Difference

States Census Years points points

1991 2001 2011 2001-1991 2011-2001 Orissa 971 972 978 1 6 Punjab 882 876 893 -6 17 Rajasthan 910 921 926 11 5 Sikkim 878 875 889 -3 14 Tamil Nadu 974 987 995 13 8 Tripura 945 948 961 3 13 Uttar Pradesh 879 898 908 19 10 Uttarakhand 936 962 963 26 1 West Bengal 917 934 947 17 13

Source: Statement-13, Provisional Population Totals, Census 2011 Now, if we compare changes in the overall sex ratio during two sub-periods viz. 1991-2001 and 2001-2011, we would see that while thirteen states witnessed improvement in sex ratio by more than 10 points during the former period; fifteen states witnessed the same during the latter period (Table 4). However, the most encouraging feature of change is that the states like Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Sikkim witnessed improvement in the sex ratio by more than 10 points during 2001-2011 although the sex ratio declined in these states during 1991-2001.

Table 5: Distribution of States and UTs by Range of Sex Ratio: 2001 & 2011

2001 2011

Sex Ratio No. of % of No. of % of

State / UT population State / UT Population

880 & below 8 5.98 6 3.65

881-915 4 17.44 4 19.87

916-950 11 47.18 10 45.08

951-985 8 18.12 8 13.01

986 & above 4 11.28 7 18.4

It is interesting to note the distribution of states and union territories by sex ratio below and above national level. It remained constant over 2001 and 2011. In fact, the proportion of population in the state where overall sex ratio is below the national level has increased marginally. 9 However, to study the dynamics of changes occurring at the sub national level we present the distribution of states and union territories by range of sex ratio of India and there share in the total population of the country in Table 5. It reveals that the number of states and union territories whose overall sex ratio ranges from 916 to 950 is maximum both in 2001 and 2011. However, the proportion of population represented by these states and union territories has declined by 2 percentage points in 2011. Further, although the number of states and union territories with sex ratio less than 916 declined from 12 to 10 during the same period, the percentage share of these states' population has remained almost constant (23.52 % in 2011 as against 23.42 % in 2001). Now coming to the relatively better performing states and union territories, we find that while number of states with sex ratio ranging from 951 to 985 remained same in between 2001 & 2011, the population share of these states has declined by about 5 percentage points. But what is of very significance is the fact that the number of states and union territories with high sex ratio of 986 and above rose sharply from 4 to 7 with an increased population share by about 7 %. The movement of a large state (Andhra Pradesh) in this category has resulted in the increased share of population. But this little sense of relief gets frustrated when one compares the recent state level data with what is available historically. In 1951, there were as many as eleven states and union territories that had sex ratio of more than unity or above 1000. This number declined to nine in 1961, three in 1971 and two in 1981 and one in 1991. In 2001, only Kerala and Puducherry reported above unity sex ratio. Both these States have not only retained their status but have also shown considerable increase in 2011.10

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Table 6: Child Sex Ratio (0-6 age group) and 7+ Sex-Ratio in Indian States: 1991-2011

India / States Child Population Differences Population Difference

points points

(0-6 years) 2001- 2011- Aged 7 years and 2001- 2011- above 1991 2001 2001 1991 2001 1991 2001 2011 1991 2001 India 945 927 914 -18 -13 923 934 944 11 10 Andhra Pradesh 975 961 943 -14 -18 972 981 997 9 16 Arunachal Pradesh 982 964 960 -18 -4 829 878 913 49 35 Assam 975 965 957 -10 -8 910 929 953 19 24 Bihar 953 942 933 -11 -9 895 914 912 19 -2 Chhattisgarh 984 975 964 -9 -11 986 992 995 6 3 Goa 964 938 920 -26 -18 967 964 973 -3 9 Gujarat 928 883 886 -45 3 936 927 923 -9 -4 Haryana 879 819 830 -60 11 862 869 885 7 16 Himachal Pradesh 951 896 906 -55 10 980 980 983 0 3 Jammu & Kashmir na 941 859 na -82 Na 884 887 na 3 Jharkhand 979 965 943 -14 -22 908 935 948 27 13 Karnataka 960 946 943 -14 -3 960 968 971 8 3 Kerala 958 960 959 2 -1 1049 1072 1099 23 27 Madhya Pradesh 941 932 912 -9 -20 905 916 933 11 17 Maharashtra 946 913 883 -33 -30 931 924 931 -7 7 Manipur 974 957 934 -17 -23 955 977 995 22 18 Meghalaya 986 973 970 -13 -3 947 971 989 24 18 Mizoram 769 964 971 195 7 911 930 976 19 46 Nagaland 993 964 944 -29 -20 865 890 929 25 39 Orissa 967 953 934 -14 -19 972 976 985 4 9 Punjab 875 798 846 -77 48 883 888 899 5 11 Rajasthan 916 909 883 -7 -26 908 923 935 15 12 Sikkim 965 963 944 -2 -19 860 861 883 1 22 Tamil Nadu 948 942 946 -6 4 978 993 1000 15 7 Tripura 967 966 953 -1 -13 940 945 962 5 17 Uttar Pradesh 927 916 899 -11 -17 863 894 910 31 16 Uttarakhand 948 908 886 -40 -22 933 973 975 40 2 West Bengal 967 960 950 -7 -10 907 929 946 22 17

The Eleventh Five Year Plan aimed to achieve the goal of increasing child sex ratio from 927 in 2001 to 935 by 2011-12 and further to 950 in 2016-17. But we failed to realize the 1st goal as majority of states and union territories witnessed a decline in the juvenile sex ratio (Table-6) and as a result at the all India level it declined by 13 points making it almost impossible to realize the subsequent goal by 2016-17. 11 We present the juvenile sex ratio as well as sex ratio of age 7 years and above in Table 6 for the Indian states during 1991-2011. The sex ratio of age 7 years and above increased 11 points from 923 in 1991 to 934 in 2001 and further 10 points to 944 in 2011 at the national level. Kerala (1099), Tamil Nadu (1000) and Andhra Pradesh (997) have recorded highest sex ratio in 2011 while Haryana (885), Jammu & Kashmir (887) and Punjab (899) are at the bottom in the age group 7 + years. While the sex ratio of age 7 years and above presents encouraging trends across the country encompassing all but two states (Bihar & Gujarat), the same is not true in the case of girl child in the age group 0-6 years. The juvenile sex ratio increased in six states in 2011 as against only two states in 2001. However, among the six states that witnessed increased juvenile sex ratio in 2011, four of them witnessed massive decline (45 to 77 points) in the ratio during 1991-2001. Thus the improvements in these states in 2011 will remain overshadowed by its previous disastrous records. Among the 22 states where juvenile sex ratio declined during 2001- 2011, sharp fall in the range of 20 to 82 points have been reported in eight states: Jammu & Kashmir (82), Maharashtra (30), Rajasthan (26), Manipur (23), Uttarakhand (22), Jharkhand (22), Madhya Pradesh (20), and Nagaland (20). The top three states recording the highest value of juvenile sex ratio are Mizoram (971), Meghalaya (970) and Chhattisgarh (964). On the other hand, the lowest juvenile sex ratio among the states has been observed in the states of Haryana (830), Punjab (846) and Jammu and Kashmir (859).

It would be of interest to note the contrasting features of the distribution of states and Union Territories in India by range of sex ratio of child population and population of age 7 years and above (Table 7 & Table 8) during last two census years. The stark reality is that while in 2001 there were as many as eighteen states and Union Territories where juvenile sex ratio was within the high

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range of 951-985 and they represented a population strength of 28.02 % of the total population, the number of states and Union Territories