II. MATERIAL Y METODOS
2.14. Aspectos éticos
On the basis of the above mapping, which shows that the greatest lack of information is seen in the last part of the chain, from primary production to final consumption, the various stakeholders in Denmark have suggested developing the latter.
Firstly:
Turnover of organic products in retail shops
Foreign trade in organic products
Ad hoc surveys of direct sales of organic products from farmer to consumer and various subscription systems
and secondly:
Prices of selected organic products in the chain from primary production to final consumption
Trends Survey for organic food and beverages
The statistical models for the above surveys will be described below.
5.1 Turnover of organic products in retail shops
According to U. Hamm et al.(2002, p. 44) 86 per cent of the total organic products for consumption in Denmark are sold in general food shops, while direct sales and weekly markets only account for 7 per cent. This indicates the importance of surveying this sector to provide a valid picture of final consumption of organic products.
The Danish retail sector is characterized by some supermarkets chains like Coop Denmark, Dansk Supermarked and Aldi plus some chains of independent wholesalers which are all members of De Samvirkende Købmænd (DSK). The members of DSK have about 1 500 shops, and those shops are supplied by three wholesalers. The retail shops for organic products are therefore quite extensive, but also concentrated on few players. This clears the way for reducing the number of questionnaires.
The statistical model is:
Joint report for the turnover of organic products from: a) Coop Denmark
b) Dansk Supermarked c) Aldi
Joint reports from the three DSK wholesalers’ sales of organic products to retail shops, excluding the three chains (a-c) mentioned above.
The questionnaire was posted January 2004, requesting information on the turnover of organic products for the year 2003.
Information was requested on organic products in different commodity categories in volume and turnover in DKK.
The supermarket chains a-c are asked to report on retail sales, and the three wholesalers on sales to retail shops.
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It should be possible to use the information collected from the supermarket chains a-c, immediately without any further calculations, but that is not the case for the information from the three wholesalers. This information on volume can be used as an estimate of sales in retail shops by assessing waste of commodities bought. When combined with information available from other sources, wholesalers’ sales in DKK can give a valid picture of turnover in retail shops.
5.2 Foreign trade of organic products
By matching the information on certified enterprises from the Danish Plant Directorate and the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration with Statistics Denmark’s information on foreign trade, it is possible to create the population for the survey. By using this method it will be possible to validate data immediately as well as reducing the response burden for the trade, as it will only be necessary to send questionnaires to those enterprises that have been active in foreign trade.
The statistical model is:
The basis population is made up of about 3 900 certified enterprises and farms in the registers from the Danish Plant Directorate and the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration for the actual year of the survey.
This basis population is matched with Statistics Denmark’s information on foreign trade for actual year of the survey.
Those enterprises that might have had foreign trade in potential organic products constitute the final population for the survey.
The questionnaire will be sent out in May 2004 requesting information on foreign trade with organic products for the year 2004.
The population will receive a questionnaire with information on foreign trade that the enterprises have already reported to Statistics Denmark and/or customs authorities (volume, prices in DKK and country). The enterprises are requested to report the share of organic products.
When the questionnaires are returned, Statistics Denmark will carry out quality control including a validity check.
5.3 Ad hoc surveys of direct sales of organic products from farmer to consumer and various subscription systems
As mentioned earlier, the majority of organic products are distributed through supermarkets. Various experts suggest that about 10 per cent are distributed through direct sale from farmer to consumer and various subscription systems. But there is a general consensus that this estimate is defective with an unknown element of uncertainty.
To create a total picture of direct sale from farmer to consumer, from a statistical point of view, it would be most appropriate to survey a total or random sample of all certified farms; however this implies a considerable response burden for the farms. When this is considered in relation to the presumably small sales, Statistics Denmark will not recommend this procedure.
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Proceedings of the 1st EISfOM Seminar, Berlin April 2004Organic Denmark has for some years operated a database containing information on farms which sell direct from farmer to consumer99. The database is updated on a yearly basis free of charge for the farmers.
No database exists which has full coverage of the various subscription schemes for organic products, however Organic Denmark is in possession of a more or less complete list of them.
5.4 Prices of selected organic products in the chain form primary production to final consumption Until now there has been no systematic collection of prices for organic products in the chain from primary production to final consumption by the consumer. Statistics Denmark has suggested starting to collect comparable prices for those eight categories of commodities that are, at present, covered by Statistics Denmark. A possible comparison appears in table 1.
Table 1: Selected categories of organic products in the chain from primary production to final consumption
Prices in primary production
Processing prices Retail prices
1. Carrots Carrots Carrots
2. Potatoes Potatoes Potatoes
3. Eggs, large Eggs, large Eggs, large 4. Natural milk Whole milk Whole milk 5. Natural milk Semi-skimmed milk Semi-skimmed milk 6. Natural milk Skimmed milk Skimmed milk 7. Cattle/kg Minced beef Minced beef
8. Pig/kg Minced pork Minced pork
As shown above it is possible to follow the prices for the products in categories 1-3, as these are less processed products (for example only sorted and packed). This is not the case for categories 4-8. To compare the prices in different stages in the process different circumstances must be investigated.
Organic products are bought and sold by many enterprises, and to create an average price index it is necessary to have information about the total volume sold. This validity problem can be minimized if the information is published only as indices.
In many cases the farmer will receive additional payment for the products in categories 4-8 six months to one year after production. This will make it difficult to compare processing and retail prices with prices in primary production on, for example, a monthly basis.
For product categories 1-3, in many cases the farmer will sell directly to the various supermarket chains or individual retail shops. In this case the processed prices will not give a true and fair picture.
To form the basis for valid price statistics further investigation is therefore necessary.
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5.5 Trends Survey for organic food and beverages
On a quarterly and yearly basis Statistics Denmark has carried out a trends survey for manufacturing industries.
The purpose of the survey is to provide up-to-date data on the business cycle in Danish manufacturing industries, including data on current assessments of the preceding period and data on future expectations. The trends survey is a supplement to other short-term statistics. To this is added information on a number of factors considered difficult to extract from the traditional statistics.
The survey provides qualitative information on the current situation as well as forecasts for the coming three months. The most important variables are production, employment, new orders, sales prices, investment plans and limits to production.
It is a characteristic feature of the method used that the management of the enterprises which respond should be able to answer the questions without any elaborate analysis, since they are primarily requested to indicate with a tick whether a given economic variable, e.g. production is up, largely unchanged or down for the survey period, compared to the preceding period. The questions concern both future expec- tations and current judgment over the preceding period.
Corresponding to the above it could be possible to carry out quarterly or half-yearly trends surveys for certified manufactures of food and beverage as well as retail businesses. Whether this is appropriate or not must be compared with the increasing response burden imposed on the enterprises.
References
Hamm, Ulrich et al., 2002. Analysis of the European market for organic food. Organic Marketing Initiatives and Rural Development. School of Management and Business, University of Wales, Abersytwyth, UK.