aspectos de mejora

Agriculture remains the single most im- portant sector in the Zambezi River Basin from the perspective of people’s survival and arguably the sector with the largest potential to help people out of poverty.

Agriculture contributes significantly to basin economies, given low levels of industrialization in the area. The impor- tance of land and agriculture develop- ment to poverty reduction, economic growth, food security, gender equity and nutrition in the Zambezi Basin there- fore, remains central. The sector ac- counts for 54 percent of employment in the entire SADC region and for an av- erage of 58 percent in the eight coun- tries of the Zambezi River Basin.

The economic significance of agri- culture is further underlined by its con- tribution to a country’s macro-economy and for most of the Zambezi Basin ri- parian states, the contribution has been substantial over the years. The sector re- mains the engine of growth, accounting for more than 20 percent of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for some countries in the basin such as Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia during the period 2007 to 2011 (Table 3.4). In Zimbabwe, the decline from 21.3 percent in 2007 to 15.5 per- cent in 2011 can be attributed to recent economic challenges.

By 2010 the agriculture contribution to GDP increased to 30.1 percent for Mozambique while for Tanzania and Zambia this decreased to 27.8 percent and 20.1 percent, respectively (Table 3.4). Only Zambia has consistent data on the share of agriculture in employ- ment, but this has been growing rapidly in the past decade and may be indicative for neighbouring countries.

Apart from its contribution to na- tional GDP, agriculture is also a major ex- port commodity in most Basin states (Table 3.5). Malawi has the largest share of agricultural commodities in its exports while Botswana has the least. However, as explained later, in Chapter 9, there is little value addition for most agricultural com- modities which are exported in a raw state, resulting in low export earnings.

Area Under Cultivation

Subsistence and commercial agriculture in the basin largely depend on rainfall, which is variable across the region mak- ing rain-fed agriculture risky.

The vast land and water resources in the Zambezi River Basin present op- portunities to increase food production for domestic use and export. Land under irrigation is estimated at just 3.6 percent of its 5.2 million hectares of land under cultivation (SADC and ZRA 2007). This shows that the Zambezi Basin is yet to fully utilise its irrigation potential and decrease its dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Table 3.6 shows irrigated land by country, and its share in arable land and permanent crops. As seen in Table 3.6, there has been no re- markable increase in the area under irri-

gation. There is need for Basin states to invest in irrigated agriculture as the area will face increased incidence of droughts as a result of climate change.

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SADC, SADC Statistical Year Book 2014

Table 3.5 SShare of Agriculture in Exports (%)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Angola - - - - - - Botswana 1.0 2.9 3.1 5.2 5.2 2.4 Malawi 95.2 91.8 89.3 89.5 78.3 79.3 Mozambique 13.3 12.2 12.4 42.8 18.4 20.4 Namibia 11.2 9.5 7.5 11.5 12.1 12.0 Tanzania 29.3 29.0 31.4 35.3 25.5 29.5 Zambia 8.6 8.6 6.8 8.7 6.6 9.1 Zimbabwe 53.5 23.0 24.3 29.7 22.4 29.4

SADC, SADC Statistical Year Book 2014

Table 3.6 Irrigated Land in the Zambezi Basin by Country and Share in Arable Land and Permanent Crops

Country 1999-2001 2003-2005 2006 2007 2008 (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) Angola 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Malawi 51.7 56.0 56.0 59.0 59.0 Mauritius 20.3 21.3 21.0 21.0 21.0 Mozambique 115.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 Namibia 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Tanzania 163.0 184.0 184.0 184.0 184.0 Zambia 133.3 156.0 156.0 156.0 156.0 Zimbabwe 174.0 174.0 174.0 174.0 174.0

SADC, SADC Statistical Year Book 2014

Table 3.4 Share of Agriculture in Gross Domestic Product and Employment

GDP Share (%) Employment Share (%)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Angola 8.0 6.8 10.5 10.1 10.2 Botswana 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 Malawi 29.8 Mozambique 27.0 28.5 28.8 30.1 Namibia 9.2 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 United Republic of Tanzania 29.6 29.4 28.4 27.8

Zambia 19.8 19.8 20.8 20.1 19.4 64 66 73 79 85 Zimbabwe 21.3 23.7 19.3 17.7 15.5

Cereal Production and Food Security

The Zambezi River Basin faces a deficit in all cereal crops (sorghum, millet, wheat and rice) except maize. In 2012/2013 most countries in the Basin experienced cereal deficits, except Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia.

At SADC level, the cereal produc- tion in 2013 was estimated at 35.11 million tonnes, up from 31.47 million tonnes in 2012 and 34.59 million tonnes in 2011. The 2013 regional ce- real production represents a five per- cent increase over the average SADC cereal production for the last five

years, indicating continued above-aver- age cereal production in the region in recent years compared to the past five- year average cereal production (2007- 2011).

Most countries in the basin recorded decreases in cereal production in 2012, with only Namibia and Tanza- nia increasing harvests in 2012 over 2011 (SADC 2012d; SADC2013). Tan- zania has registered a significantly high and increasing trend in cereal produc- tion in the past six years. However, as a Basin there has been a net cereal deficit. Figure 3.1 shows trends in cereal pro- duction by country.

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SADC, SADC Statistical Year Book 2014

Table 3.7 MMaize Production by Country

(000 tonnes) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Angola 458.7 546.9 618.7 530.6 720.3 526.1 615.9 702.4 970.2 1 320.8 969.8 Botswana 9.3 2.4 2.0 1.3 6.2 2.6 10.5 0.9 10.6 16.6 17.6 Malawi 2 290.0 1 589.4 1 485.3 1 847.5 1 608.3 1 225.2 2 611.5 3 226.4 2 634.7 3 582.5 3 233.0 Mozambique 1 180.4 0.0 1 114.8 1 178.8 0.0 941.5 1 395.5 1 133.9 1 167.0 1 932.0 1 878.0 Namibia 49.2 28.3 27.6 31.0 64.8 52.9 63.6 55.5 58.1 57.3 58.0 Tanzania 2 009.3 2 578.6 2 704.8 2 322.0 3 157.4 3 218.5 3 423.0 3 302.1 3 555.8 3 326.0 4 475.4 Zambia 850.5 801.9 601.6 1 157.9 1 213.6 866.2 1 424.4 1 366.2 1 211.6 1 887.0 2 795.5 Zimbabwe 1 619.7 1 526.3 604.8 1 058.8 1 686.2 915.4 1 484.8 1 161.6 496.0 700.0 1 192.4

Figure 3.1 Cereal Production Trend

Maize is the staple food crop in most of the countries in the Basin, but maize production has not shown signif- icant growth over the years to align with population growth, despite the growing demand for food. Table 3.7 shows trends in maize production by country in the Zambezi Basin.

Figure 3.2 shows the trends in the population at risk of food insecurity, comparing the eight riparian countries and the SADC region as a whole. This shows that from 2005 to 2010 the food insecure population in the eight countries within the basin has been de- clining and from 2011 it started increas- ing again while in the SADC region as a whole, the declining trend continued up to 2012 and only increased in 2013. This may be an indication that the countries

in the Zambezi River Basin are more vulnerable to food insecurity than the other SADC member states.

At the local level, women are tradi- tionally responsible for producing food for their families, especially in rural areas. In the SADC region, women contribute more than 60 percent to total food pro- duction (SARDC 2008). Agricultural ac- tivities are not only a means to produce food, however, as studies in Western Zambia have shown that women also rely on farming for income due to limited eco- nomic opportunities in other sectors (Kent and MacRae 2010). Food security is linked to the social and economic liveli- hoods of many women thereby increas- ing vulnerability to food insecurity. Population at risk of food insecurity by country is shown in Table 3.8.

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SADC, Food Security Update July 2013

Table 3.8 PPopulation at Risk of Food Insecurity in the Zambezi Basin by Country

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Angola - - - - - - - - 367 190 700 000 Botswana - - - - - - - - - 372 479 Malawi 1 340 000 5 055 000 833 000 63 234 613 291 275 168 508 089 271 502 1 972 993 1 461 940 Mozambique 108 203 801 655 240 000 520 000 302 664 281 300 350 000 245 000 270 000 212 000 Namibia - - - - - 224 795 42 100 243 474 74 711 778 504 Tanzania 688 360 850 023 4 418 503 216 142 425 313 1 849 497 1 141 214 1 618 795 1 472 127 1 615 445 Zambia 39 300 1 232 661 380 537 440 866 444 624 110 000 53 629 74 804 62 642 209 498 Zimbabwe 2 300 000 2 884 800 1 392 500 4 100 000 5 100 000 1 400 000 1 287 937 1 390 000 1 668 000 2 206 924 Basin Countries 4 475 863 10 824 139 7 264 540 5 340 242 6 885 892 4 140 760 3 382 969 3 843 575 5 887 663 7 556 790 SADC 17 037 503 21 675 129 14 992 597 12 897 708 22 255 264 17 042 661 17 484 132 15 289 336 12 174 095 14 426 487

Figure 3.2 Trend in Food Insecure Population