This section aims to summarise and close the theoretical considerations by highlighting the key insights that frame the empirical research section.
After discussing the fundamental role played by energy in socio-economic as well as natural systems, it becomes evident that technical energy use is a key parameter in the context of sustainability. Energy technologies relate directly to the interactions of natural and social systems. Studying historical trajectories of energy use from a socio-ecological systems perspective enables insights to be generated into the complex interlinkages, feedbacks and interdependencies and into the fundamental (radical) structural changes that are associated with an energy transition. The challenges and obstacles of such structural changes go far beyond gradual changes such as the development of new machineries or technical equipment. The social reflexivity of society-nature interactions, although challenging, is a prerequisite for society to develop more sustainable strategies in coping with the natural systems.
A sustainable energy transition is driven by diverse and contradicting perspectives and interests and has far-reaching structural consequences for society. Top-down approaches to steering such a transition are thus very much prone to failure; bottom-up deliberative approaches can be seen as much more favourable; as they explicitly aim at reconciling different perspectives via negotiation processes.
From the discussion of these theoretical traits, the following three insights shape the design and framework of the empirical research presented in this thesis.
(1) Socio-technological change in the face of society-nature interactions
One of the overall messages of the theoretical chapters is that a systemic perspective on sustainability has to focus on the interactions of society and nature. Technological innovation per se is not enough to achieve more sustainable energy systems. Technology has to be understood as part of the interaction between nature and society. The concept of socio-technical systems concentrates on the wider societal process of technical change but fails to address natural systems. Natural systems, on the one hand, provide the ultimate source of energy for society, and it matters, in what form: whether spatially dispersed and with a low energy density, or locally concentrated with high density, whether as radiation, solid matter or liquid. The amount of supply, and the conditions of supply, ultimately is determined by natural parameters.
On the other hand, in order to access energy sources, societies need to intervene into natural systems and restructure them for the purpose of energy extraction. This may be the large-scale deforestation of land area for agricultural use, infrastructure modifying aquatic systems for electricity generation, or intrusion in geological deposits. In all cases, this involves a complex interaction in which social systems are forced to change in order to incapacitate them for such interventions, and in which natural systems change – not only in the way intended, but also entailing a number of unintended consequences (such as soil changes, changes in atmospheric and water cycles, geological depletion and various accidents) that in turn societies need to cope with. An analysis of sustainable energy systems and innovative technologies needs to take the dynamics of society and their interactions with natural systems into account.
(2) Sustainability relates to the interactions of two complex, adaptive systems – and this has implications for the research methodology
Sustainability cannot be defined for a single system. Rather, sustainability refers to the interactions of systems, an interaction that is not detrimental for either one of the systems involved in the long run. In the case of sustainable energy systems, it refers to the interaction of two systems, the social system and the natural system. Both are characterised by their own system logics, causal relationships and endogenous feedback loops. Both systems are complex and cannot be understood by the description of their parts alone. Instead, they are characterised by emergent properties. In consequence, the interactions of society and nature are not straight forward but involve feedback loops across scales, time lags, irreducible uncertainties, and non-linearity. Science is far from being able to fully capture these complex interactions. Moreover, it is a matter of variable preferences and risk assessments within society which decisions on alternative futures to take. Thus, within the realm of social systems, the complexity of this interactions reflects itself in a multidimensionality of preferences, and in a spectre of social discourses perceiving and weighing realities differently. Therefore, the complexity of alternative future options has to be taken into account, in research and in methodological design for decision making. Scenario building is a technique allowing to reflect a certain complexity of possible future developments, more than just distinguishing between single technology options, and to learn about trade-offs and synergies from and among relevant stakeholders.
(3) Multiplicity of perspectives and interests in energy transitions
Within society, direct steering towards a more sustainable energy system is beyond the range of options. There are several legitimate and often ambiguous problem definitions and perspectives related to the particular background and interests actors are associated with. In the face of the far reaching consequences a change in energy systems has upon social life, and in the face of the lack of predictability of such a change, problem-focused, adaptive, and reflexive governance
processes are required. An appraisal of alternatives has to involve different interest groups, not only to incorporate the multiplicity of legitimate perspectives in a negotiation process, but also to capture those interests upon which a sustainable alternative may build. A multi-stakeholder multi-criteria analysis of future scenarios seems an appropriate tool to identify the policy options towards a more sustainable energy future. In the next section its methodological prerequisites from a research perspective will be further elaborated, the methods inventory presented and discussed in greater detail.