The regular Autumn survey of bus passengers entering the wider central London area during the morning peak period, part of the Central Area Peak Count, was completed in Autumn 2005. This survey was undertaken during the period after the congestion charge increase to £8 and at a point when the more immediate impacts of the July 2005 bombings in central London had largely diminished.
Figure 4.1 illustrates these counts over the last 20 years and shows the strong trend in growth over recent years. In the first year after charging there was an increase of 18 percent in passengers entering central London during the weekday morning peak period, followed by a further increase of 12 percent in the following year. In 2005 the estimated number of bus passengers remained very similar to those recorded in 2004, at around 116,000.
Figure 4.1 Bus passengers entering central London, 07.00 to 10.00, Autumn counts, 1986 to 2005. TfL Central Area Peak Count.
0
Number of passengers (thousands)
Charging starts
The substantial increases in bus passenger numbers (about one third) over 2000-2004 was driven by a number of factors including congestion charging, additional bus kilometres operated (up by one quarter) and fares (down by 16 percent in real terms).
Since 2004, bus kilometres operated have stabilised and bus fares have been significantly restructured. Whilst there have been significant increases in the price of cash fares, these have been substantially offset by the move away from single fares to off-bus tickets, including Oyster pay as you go fares so that, after allowing for inflation, the average bus fare per journey is now close to what it was in 2000. Free bus travel has also been introduced for the under-16s.
July 2005 Variations
In July 2005 the daily congestion charge was increased from £5 to £8. TfL projected that there would be an increase of around 1 to 3 percent in the number of bus passengers entering the charging zone during the morning peak period as a result of this change. In the same week, the bombings in central London occurred, complicating assessment of the impact of the charge increase.
Early analysis of the impact on the bus network suggested that in the three weeks after the bombings bus journeys to the charging zone were estimated to be about 6 percent up year-on-year. This was around 2 to 3 percent above the previous trend and although it may have been partly contributed to by the charge increase, it appeared to be largely a result of passengers switching away from the Underground in the immediate aftermath of the bombings.
However, the increase was short term and declined over time as passengers returned to the Underground.
Bus reliability
As well as changes to the service provision and patronage of the central London bus network in the period since 2002 there have also been significant improvements to the reliability of bus services. These have reflected a variety of factors, which have included increased investment in robust schedules, enhanced route supervision and the introduction of Quality Incentive
Contracts, as well as the introduction of congestion charging that has reduced congestion in and around the charging zone.
One measure of bus service reliability is ‘excess waiting time’, reflecting the additional waiting time at bus stops experienced by passengers caused by service irregularity or missing buses. In the first year after charging there were improvements in bus service reliability for passengers in and around the charging zone of around a 30 percent reduction in excess waiting time. This was greater than the network wide average of around 20 percent for the same period. In the following year TfL recorded a further improvement of 18 percent in the charging zone. This was similar to the network wide average for the year of around 20 percent, as would be expected given that the ‘step’ change represented by charging did not apply in 2004.
In the most recent year bus service reliability has been maintained, and with a further fall in excess waiting time of 4 percent within the charging zone
compared to the same period the previous year. This comparative stability is also reflected in the network wide change in 2005.
London Buses sets the bus operators performance standards for excess waiting time based on the characteristics of the route. Figure 4.2 shows the change in measured excess waiting time relative to the minimum standards.
This illustrates the ongoing improvements to bus reliability in central London, and across the wider bus network.
Figure 4.2 Difference between excess waiting time standards and actual excess waiting time (weekday charging hours).
-1.5
Central Inner Ring Road Other inner Outer Network-wide average Charging starts
BetterWorse
2002 2003 2004 2005
In addition to improvements in passenger waiting time there were also improvements measured directly from reduced traffic congestion. This is reported in terms of bus kilometres not operated compared to that scheduled.
Routes operating in and around the charging zone saw the biggest improvements in this indicator in the first year after the introduction of
charging of around 60 percent. The picture in 2004 was relatively stable, with gains seen in 2003 being maintained.
In the most recent period there has been a slight reduction to the gains
recorded in 2003 and 2004. The proportion of scheduled bus kilometres lost to traffic congestion increased by 13 percent in 2005 compared to 2004. This trend is generally reflective of routes across the entire London bus network.
Despite this recent change, routes in central London are still performing considerably better overall than they were before the introduction of congestion charging.
4.3 Underground