Just under six in ten respondents (56.6 per cent) achieved a Level 2 or above score in literacy. This represents a substantial increase from 44.2 per cent in 2003. The proportion of
respondents achieving Literacy Level 1 has decreased from 39.5 per cent in 2003, to 28.5 per cent in 2011. The distributions of Literacy Levels in 2011 and 2003 are illustrated in Figure 4.1 and 4.2.
Figure 4.1 Literacy Levels in 2003 and 2011 (%)
3.4 2.0 10.8 39.5 44.2 5.0 2.1 7.8 28.5 56.6 Entry Level 1 or below
Entry Level 2
Entry Level 3
Level 1
Level 2 or above
2003 2011
Base: SfL2003 All aged 16-65 with literacy score (7874) / SfL2011 All aged 16-65 with literacy score (5824)
42 The majority of findings in this chapter have been published previously in: Harding, C, et al (2011) 2011 Skills
for Life Survey: Headline findings. Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Research Paper Number 57,
available online at: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/further-education-skills/docs/0-9/11-1367-2011-skills-for- life-survey-findings.pdf, accessed on 28/03/12.
Eighty five per cent of respondents achieved a Level 1 or above score in literacy, and 15 per cent of respondents performed at Entry Level 3 or below. Consequently, it is estimated that 29 million adults aged 16-65 in England had Level 1 or above literacy skills, and 5.1 million adults had Entry Level 3 or below literacy skills.43 In 2003 the equivalent figures were 84 per cent and
16 per cent. Whilst this is a difference of 1.3 per cent (14.9 per cent compared with 16.2 per cent when rounded to one decimal place), it is not statistically significant (at the 5 per cent confidence interval level).44
Figure 4.2 Literacy Levels in 2003 and 2011 (%)
16.2
83.8 14.9
85.1 Entry Level 3 or below
Level 1 or above
2003 2011
Base: SfL2003 All aged 16-65 with literacy score (7874) / SfL2011 All aged 16-65 with literacy score (5824)
The population estimates of all adults aged 16-65 in Englandare shown in Table 4.1.
43 The ONS 2009 mid-year population figures show that there are 34.1 million adults aged 16-65 in England.
Available online at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=15106, accessed on 28/03/12.
44 Improvements in survey delivery meant that there were no whole cases of failing to capture data in 2011 (see
Annex 4, and for full details of the data non-capture issue see Annex 6), whilst this affected around 10 per cent of cases in 2003. If this is taken into account (using a revised weight of the 2003 data), this decreases the proportion achieving Level 1 or above from 83.8 to 83.3. Using this re-weighted 2003 figure, the small rise in the proportion of respondents achieving Level 1 or above in 2011 (85.1 per cent) becomes statistically significant at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Chapter 4: Distributions of literacy, numeracy and ICT skills
35
Table 4.1 Literacy Levels in 2003 and 2011 including population estimates
2003 2011 % Margins of Error Population
estimate (million)45
% Margins of
Error Population estimate (million) Entry Level 1 or below 3.4 (2.9 - 4.0) 1.1 5.0 (4.3 – 5.8) 1.7 Entry Level 2 2.0 (1.7 - 2.4) 0.6 2.1 (1.7 – 2.6) 0.7 Entry Level 3 10.8 (10.0 – 11.7) 3.5 7.8 (7.0 – 8.8) 2.7 Level 1 39.5 (38.2 – 40.9) 12.6 28.5 (27.0 – 29.9) 9.7 Level 2 or above 44.2 (42.7 – 45.7) 14.1 56.6 (55.0 – 58.2) 19.3 Entry Level 3 or below 16.2 (15 .1– 17.4) 5.2 14.9 (13.7 – 16.2) 5.1 Level 1 or above 83.8 (82.6 – 84.9) 26.7 85.1 (83.8 – 86.3) 29.0
Unweighted 7874 (31.9 million) 5824 (34.1 million)
Base: SfL2003 All aged 16-65 with literacy scores / SfL2011 All aged 16-65 with literacy scores
Although there has been no statistically significant change (at the five per cent confidence level) in the proportion of respondents achieving Entry Level 3 or below, there has been a change to the number of respondents achieving Entry Level 1 and Entry Level 3. As displayed in Table 4.1, the number of respondents achieving Entry Level 3 has decreased since 2003, and conversely the proportion of respondents achieving Entry Level 1 and below has increased.
An alternative way of looking at the changes between 2003 and 2011 is to not just look at the point estimates and whether a change is ‘statistically significant’, but to consider the likelihood of various magnitudes of change.
Tables 4.2 and 4.3 show a range of possible values for this magnitude of change (Table 4.2 for the proportion at Level 1 or above, and Table 4.3 for the proportion at Level 2 or above). Each possible value for this magnitude of change is given a likelihood score.
For example, in Table 4.2 we can see that the likelihood that the change in the proportion reaching Level 1 or above is less than or equal to 2 per cent is 79 per cent. The second row breaks down these cumulative values to show the likelihood of change between two values. For example, the likelihood that the increase is between 1.5 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points is 20 per cent.
From Table 4.2, there is a six percent likelihood of a negative change since 2003 in the
proportion of respondents achieving Literacy Level 1 or above. The most likely level of change is between +1.0 and +1.5 percentage points. When examining the increase in the proportion at
45 In line with the 2003 report this is based on the 2001 Census figures. This showed that there were 31.9 million
36
Table 4.2 Percentage achieving Level 1 or above Literacy – likelihood of different magnitudes of change Magnitude of change -1% -0.5% 0% +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5% +3% +3.5% +4% Cumulative probability distribution 0% 2% 6% 17% 36% 59% 79% 92% 97% 99% 100% Interval probability distribution 0% 1% 5% 11% 19% 23% 20% 13% 6% 2% 0%
Base: SfL2003 All aged 16-65 with Level 1 or above literacy score and SfL2011 All aged 16-65 with Level 1 or above literacy score
Table 4.3 Percentage achieving Level 2 or above Literacy – likelihood of different magnitudes of change Magnitude of change +9% +9.5% +10% +10.5% +11% +11.5% +12% +12.5% +13% +13.5% +14% +14.5% +15% +15.5% Cumulative probability distribution 0% 1% 2% 5% 11% 22% 37% 54% 71% 84% 92% 97% 99% 100% Interval probability distribution 0% 0% 1% 3% 6% 11% 15% 17% 17% 13% 9% 5% 2% 1%
Chapter 4: Distributions of literacy, numeracy and ICT skills
Level 2 or above since 2003, as shown in Table 4.3 the most likely level of change is between +12.0 and +12.5 percentage points.46