Bienes de uso público en Francia

Daniela Vairo1, Danilo Gambelli1, Raffaele Zanoli126

Key words: scenario analysis, organic food and farming, driving forces, uncertainties

Abstract

What are the main drivers/uncertainties that affect the future development of the organic food and farming sector? In what follows we present a structured review on the available scientific publication concerning scenario analysis on the future development of the organic food and farming sector in Europe. The aim of this review is to summarise the present knowledge and evaluation of the main drivers, and to consider how they could represent a contribution for facing the future challenges of Organic 3.0.

Introduction

In 2013 43.1 million ha were under organic agricultural management worldwide: Oceania represents 40% of this land, while Europe more than 25% (the organic food market was valued at 24.3 billion euros) (Willer and Lernoud 2015). Despite these figures, the reality is that organic farming (OF) has not even reached 1% of global agricultural land or of food consumption. Now, the aim of Organic 3.0 is to become the benchmark for sustainability worldwide and widespread adoption of OF: so what could impact upon the future of the organic food and farming sector worldwide? The use of scenario analysis in OF field of research try to answer this question. In what follows, a structured review on the available scientific publications using scenario analysis to investigate the possible pathways of evolution of the OF sector in Europe, is presented. The aim is to provide an orientation and a common direction to the organic sector, in order to face the challenges of Organic 3.0.

Material and methods

A scenario describes (textually or graphically) a set of events that might reasonably take place (Kahn and Wiener 1968). Scenarios can be considered as hypothetical images of the future, which describe the functioning of a system under different conditions with a certain degree of uncertainty. The basic aim of scenario analysis (SA) is not forecasting the future, or fully characterising its uncertainty, but rather bounding this uncertainty. It is not a single, well defined approach used in SA, but a variety of techniques that range from the qualitative ‘intuitive logics’ approach, through to more formalised methods (trend impact analysis, cross impact analysis). In addition, different classification of scenario exist. The wide range of different approaches and classifications to scenario analysis demonstrates that there is no consensus yet about the best method(s) to use. Scenario analysis can be seen as a process of understanding, analysing and describing the behaviours of complex systems in a consistent, and as far as possible, complete way. In this context, to define the framework for the evolution of the investigated system (time-frame and spatial framework), SA usually identifies the driving forces and their trends and/or expected evolutions. Here we present the results of a systematic review of the scientific literature concerning SA in organic farming. In particular we focus on the set of driving forces considered in each study, and provide a classification based on qualitative coding process (Gibbs 2007). Two online databases

126

Università Politecnica delle MARCHE, D3A, Via Brecce Bianche, 60131 Ancona Italy, www.univpm.it, eMail [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

Scientific Track “Innovative Research for Organic Agriculture 3.0” 19th Organic World Congress, New Delhi, India, November 9-11, 2017 Organized by ISOFAR, NCOF and TIPI

(Scopus and Science direct) have been used to identify relevant scientific publications between years 2005 and 2016. The following combination of keywords have been used in searching databases: “scenario” and “scenario analysis” with “organic food”, “organic farming”, “organic market”, “organic product”, “organic production” and “organic crop”. Grey literature has not been taken into consideration. Publications concerning farms scenarios and scenarios on land use (with organic farming considered a marginal aspect of the study) have not been selected. Publications which aim is to assess the sustainability of organic farming or/and the impact on other economic and environmental indicators, have not been chosen, since our structured review relates only on macro aspects of organic farming.

Results

Only few SA concerning agricultural themes refers to organic farming. Here we have selected seven scientific publications, two of which concern organic breeding scenarios and have been mentioned only for completeness of analysis. All scenarios are referring to the European context, with two SA focussing on specific European countries. The exclusion of grey literature in our review, could have affected this result. No paper considers a broad worldwide context.

Delmotte et al. (2017) develop participatory and qualitative scenarios related to the evolution of agriculture in the Camargue region of southern France, where rice is the main crop. The time horizon was set to 15 years from 2014. In this paper, four narrative scenarios have been developed and used as a method to explicitly link local and global changes, and the integrated assessment of scenarios as a way to foresee their consequences at the farm and regional levels. The final list of driving forces have been ranked by their potential impacts and the level of uncertainty.

Zanoli et al. (2015) presented a scenario analysis regarding the future development of the organic sector in Europe by year 2030. The authors developed a participatory approach, using qualitative information given by expert assessments. A deductive-qualitative approach has been used in order to identify two main uncertainties with the most impact for the sector, which play out differently in 4 diverse scenarios.

In Rozman et al. (2013) a system dynamics (SD) model for the development of organic agriculture in Slovenia has been presented, in order to identify key variables that determine conversion dynamics. The SD model enables simulation of different policies scenario in order to achieve strategic goal. Nine different simulation scenarios for the time of 120 months beyond the year 2010 up to 2020 have been performed.

Zanoli et al. (2012), Gambelli et al. (2010) presented a scenario regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe by year 2015. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Driving forces have been ranked by impact and uncertainty in order to determine the key areas that formed the themes of the 4 developing scenarios. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios.

Zanoli et al. (2000) presented five major possible forms that the European market for organic products might have assumed by 2010. Scenario analysis considers the interactions among a set of variables that are supposed to be able to depict the relevant aspects of the system where the possible evolution has been analysed. In this study, an inductive bottom-up and interactive approach was used, and a selection of the most important key variables (internal and external) that influenced the organic products market in the EU was performed. Instead of a probabilistic evaluation of the event combinations, these authors preferred to adopt an approach that was based on fuzzy logic.

Finally, Oudshoorn et al. (2009) explored the sustainability of scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark; by using a participative process with stakeholders and expert knowledge, three

Rahmann et al._{(2017) Proceedings of the Scientific Track}

“Innovative Research for Organic Agriculture 3.0”,

Organic World Congress 2017 in New Delhi, India, November 9-11, 2017

648

scenarios were defined. Nauta et al. (2001) presented six possible breeding scenarios for organic dairy farming in Netherlands. A participative approach have been used.

Based on the analysis of the selected papers, we clustered the driving forces that shared a common higher-level concept into 7 main themes, labelled accordingly to the driving forces they encompass. Theme 1 is “General economic conditions”, and includes “reputation economy”, “public subsidies”, “food prices”, “general level of consumer income”, “barrier to trade”, “food demand and supply”, “population size”, “oil prices”. Theme 2 is “Policy and social instability” and includes “EU Collapse”, “EU policy”, “CAP reform”, “specific organic farming support”. Theme 3 is “State of ecosystems” and includes “climate change”, “resource - land and water - availability”. Theme 4 is “Technological change” which inglobe “GMO-free neighbouring environment”, “green technology”, “bio-fuels”, “fracking”. Theme 5 is “Consumers’ attitude” and includes “consumer behavior”, “consumer confidence”, “awareness and consumer recognition of organic products”, “safety and quality perception of organic food with respect to conventional food”, “food scares”. Theme 6 is “Endogenous advances for OF” and includes “marketing”, “market development”, “education”, “self-organization”, “diversification through farm pluriactivity”.

Table 1: Main themes affecting the future of the organic sector

Authors/ Themes Delmotte et al. (2016) Zanoli et al. (2015) Rozman et al. (2013) Zanoli et al. (2012) Zanoli et al. (2000) General economic conditions ! ! ! ! !

Policy and social instability ! ! ! ! State of ecosystems ! ! Technological change ! ! Consumers’ attitude towards OF ! ! ! Endogenous advances for OF ! !

Discussion

Results from the review of SA literature provide an insight on the potential evolutions of the organic sector. Despite the range of methodological approaches and scope, the studies provide a common view on the issues which may influence the organic sector in the future. The general political uncertainty and the scattered recovering from the economic crisis, place new clouds on the worldwide organic market. Disruptive events like the “Brexit”, the new protectionist US approach and conservative measures undertaken by some governments are likely to affect organic market growth, with particular effects for the European market. The development of the organic sector will be conditioned upon the capability to find renewed and integrated approach relating the role of consumers, producers, technology and environment for an enlarged sustainable approach. In this context profitability of organic producers will be conditioned by the choice between a passive, price-taker approach, or a more active, price-making attitude. The main drivers that could condition the future of the organic sector seem to be already defined in the available literature, though the direction they will take in the future is not. Following the Organic 3.0 vision, to go mainstream, the sector needs to grow both on the demand and the supply side. The new organic farmers and processors may be quite different from pioneers and even the current “newcomers”, while consumer demand is likely to be more driven by (lower) process. This may put pressure on producer prices

Scientific Track “Innovative Research for Organic Agriculture 3.0” 19th Organic World Congress, New Delhi, India, November 9-11, 2017 Organized by ISOFAR, NCOF and TIPI

and, consequently, on organic quality. How the sector will be able to guarantee a “principled change” is all to be seen.

References

Delmotte S, Couderc V, Mouret JC, Lopez-Ridaura S, Barbier JM, Hossard L (2017) From stakeholders narratives to modelling plausible future agricultural systems. Integrated assessment scenarios for Camargue, Southern France. European Journal of Agronomy 82, part B: 292-307. doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2016.09.009 Gambelli D, Vairo D, Zanoli R (2010) Exploiting qualitative information for decision support. Journal of

decision systems 19 (4): 407–422

Gibbs GR (2007): Analyzing Qualitative Data. Sage, London

Kahn H, Wiener AJ (1968) The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. Macmillan, New York

Nauta WJ, Groen AF, Veerkamp RF, Roep D, Baars T (2005) Animal breeding in organic dairy farming: an inventory of farmers’ views and difficulties to overcome. Netherlands Journal of Animal Science (NJAS) 53- 1: 19-34

Oudshoorn FW, Sørensen CG, de Boer IJM (2009) Environmental evaluation of three alternative futures for organic dairy in Denmark. Agronomy Research 7: 691–705

Rozman Č, Pažek K, Kljajić M, Bavec M, Turk J, Bavec F, Kofjač D, Škraba A (2013) The dynamic simulation of organic farming development scenarios – A case study in Slovenia. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 96: 163-172

Zanoli R, Barabanova Y, Vairo D (2015) What scenarios for the further development of organics in 2030? A participatory approach for scenario analysis. IFOAM Agribiomediterraneo International conference “Agroecology for Organic Agriculture in the Mediterranean”, 10-13 September 2015, Vignola Castle (Modena) and SANA Bologna, Italy

Zanoli R, Gambelli D, Vairo D (2000) Organic farming in Europe by 2010: scenarios for the future. In: Organic Farming in Europe: Economics and Policy, vol. 8. University of Hohenheim, Hohenheim.

Zanoli R, Gambelli D, Vairo D (2012) Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe. Food Policy 37: 41-57 Willer H, Lernoud J (eds) (2015) The World of Organic Agriculture. Statistics and Emerging Trends 2015. FiBL-

IFOAM Report. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), Frick, and IFOAM – Organics International, Bonn.

Rahmann et al._{(2017) Proceedings of the Scientific Track}

“Innovative Research for Organic Agriculture 3.0”,

Organic World Congress 2017 in New Delhi, India, November 9-11, 2017

650

National and regional Organic Action Plans to develop organic