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Since gender differences exist in divorce behavior, the baseline models are linear probability models examining the relationship between divorce and the onset of work related health limitations for men and women respectively, as shown in Table 2-4 and Table 2-5². In each table, there are two parts: treatment 1 and treatment 2. Treatment 1 is aimed to figuring out the divorce behavior of individuals who have exogenous health conditions; while treatment 2 is aimed to studying the divorce behavior of individuals with any health condition.

Taking Table 2-4 as an example, in treatment 1, I include individuals (men and women) in comparison group (who never report a health problem by the end of the topical module) and men in treatment group 1 (who report exogenous health problem after the beginning of first marriage) to run the regressions; and the coefficients would be the difference between men who have the exogenous health problems and people (regardless of their gender) who stay healthy. In treatment 2 of Table 2-4, I include individuals (men and women) in comparison group and men in treatment group 2 to conduct estimations; and the coefficients would be the difference between men who have any health condition and people (men and women) who stay healthy. For either treatment 1 part or treatment 2 part in Table 2-4 and Table 2-5, there are five models. All five models use divorce dummy “divorce” as dependent variable, and

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time dummies “y0” through “y28” as independent variables. The difference among those models is the control variables. Model (1) includes no control dummies; Model (2) includes education dummies “edu1” “edu2” “edu3” “edu4”; Model (3) includes child dummies

“chl1” ”chl2” ”chl3” ”chl4” ”chl5” ”chl6”; Model (4) includes education dummies “edu1”

“edu2” “edu3” “edu4” as well as child dummies “chl1” ”chl2” ”chl3” ”chl4” ”chl5” ”chl6”;

Model (5) includes education dummies “edu1” “edu2” “edu3” “edu4”, child dummies

“chl1” ”chl2” ”chl3” ”chl4” ”chl5” ”chl6” as well as age group dummies

“agegrp1” ”agegrp2” ”agegrp3” ”agegrp4” ”agegrp5” ”agegrp6” “agegrp7” “agegrp8”

“agegrp9”. In Table 2-5, I show similar regression models for women.

Furthermore, I extend the baseline models to take race and origin into consideration, as is shown in Table 2-6, Table 2-7, Table 2-8 and Table 2-9 respectively. To keep tables simple and straight-forward, only Model (5) from baseline models are taken in the following regressions, in other words, all control dummies, such as education dummies, child dummies, and age group dummies are included in models in Table 2-6, Table 2-7, Table 2-8 and Table 2-9. Still, treatment 1 is to find the effects of exogenous health conditions on people’s divorce behavior; and treatment 2 is to find the effects of any health conditions on divorce risk.

In Table 2-6, for either treatment 1 or treatment 2 parts, there are four models and they are for White men, Black men, Asian men and Residual men respectively. For instance, in the model “(1) White” under treatment 1, I include the individuals (men and women) in

comparison group and White men in treatment group 1 to run the regressions; and the coefficients would be the difference between White men who have the exogenous health problems and people (regardless of their gender and race) who stay healthy. The format of

Table 2-7 is the same as that of Table 2-6; the only difference is that Table 2-7 is for White women, Black women, Asian women and Residual women.

In Table 2-8, under either treatment 1 or treatment 2, there are two models—one for Hispanic, Spanish or Latino men, the other one for non-Hispanic, Spanish or Latino men.

Taking model “(1) Hispanic” under treatment 1 as an example, I include all individuals in comparison group and Hispanic, Spanish or Latino men in treatment group 1 to conduct estimations; and the coefficients represent the difference between Hispanic, Spanish or Latino men who have exogenous health conditions and people (regardless of their gender and origin) who stay healthy. Table 2-9 uses the same format; and it’s for Hispanic, Spanish or Latino women and non-Hispanic, Spanish or Latino women.

2.5 Results

Table 2-4 contains estimates of linear probability models for the effect of the onset of exogenous (treatment 1) and other (treatment 2) health problems on the probability of divorce.

Across the groups of 5 columns, additional covariates shown on the left hand side of the table are added to the estimations. In column (1) for the exogenous conditions, results indicate that when no controls are added that there is a gross association between the onset of a health limitation and the probability a person is observed divorced. As educational indicators are added in column (2) the association appears to be diminished between the onset of a health related work limitation and subsequent divorce. When the number of children is added in column (3), this does not appear to have much effect on the established relationship between

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as well as those for children, and again, relative to having no controls, this appears to reduce the impact of the onset of work related health limitations on subsequent divorce. In column (5), once age dummies are added, there appears to be no relationship between the onset of the exogenous health related work limitations and the subsequent likelihood of being divorced relative to those who remain married.

For the other health conditions (treatment 2), a different pattern is observed. For these conditions that have been observed in other studies to be associated with demographic covariates associated with choice such as education, the onset of health limitations is associated with the subsequent probability of divorce even after controlling for available covariates. The increase in the probability of being observed divorced ranges from approximately 6 to 10 percentage points in the 28 follow-up years in the synthetic panel.

Thus, health conditions that arrive more unexpectedly do not appear to be associated with subsequent divorce whereas those that appear to be more easily anticipated do appear to be associated with subsequent divorce.

Table 2-5 contains a comparable analysis for women. In the first column of the table for women who experience the same six health conditions found to be exogenous for men conditional on age, there appears to be a gross relationship between the onset of a work related health limitation and divorce for many years thereafter. However, when any of the available covariates are introduced such as educational attainment (column 2), number of children (column 3), or both (column 4), the association becomes statistically insignificant.

When all covariates plus the individual’s age groups are included in column (5), there is no statistically significant association between the onset of health limitations and subsequent

divorce.

For the other health conditions that are found to be more predictable in their arrival (treatment 2), the onset of health limitations is significantly associated with the subsequent probability of divorce across all five columns of estimates. In column (5) with all covariates included, the increased probability of divorce ranges from 4 to 12 percent with the magnitude increasing over time. Again, for women on average, health conditions that arrive more unexpectedly do not appear to be associated with being observed divorced. Those that are more predictable appear to be associated with elevated risks of subsequent divorce that increase over time.

To explore potential sources that drive these patterns, I first consider the role that race and ethnicity may play by dividing the sample by those categories and re-estimating the linear probability models for Whites, Blacks, Asians, and Others³ while including all covariates. For the group of exogenously arriving health limitations, I find that for Whites there is no association with subsequent divorce but that there is a very large impact on the probability of being observed divorced among Blacks in the first decade following onset.

Although the parameter estimates are not statistically significant beyond the sixth year, they decline over time.

For the health conditions that arrive more predictably, their onsets are related to the subsequent probability of being observed divorced for Whites and Blacks. However, the magnitude of the parameter estimates is much larger among Blacks.

Table 2-7 similarly considers the relationship between the onset of health limitations and

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the probability of subsequently being observed divorced for White and Black women in the sample. In the first panel of estimates for the exogenously arriving health limitations, for Black women, there does not appear to be any association between the onset of a work related health limitation and the subsequent probability of being observed divorced. For White women, there appears to be a subsequent reduction in their likelihood of being observed divorced many years after the event relative to all women who did not experience a work related health limitation.

For the second group of estimations related to the health limits that arrive more predictably, the subsequent probability of being observed divorced increases relative to women who do not experience the onset of a health limitation. For White women, this association is no longer statistically significant 12 years after onset. For Black women, the association is statistically significant throughout the 28-year follow-up period in the synthetic panel. The magnitude of the parameter estimate is also much larger for Black women (column 2) compared to White women (column 1).

Table 2-8 contains estimates of linear probability models in which those men who experience the onset of a health limitation are selected based on being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic while the comparison group is left as all who do not experience onset of a health limitation. For those conditions that arrive more unpredictably (column 1), this appears to reduce the likelihood of being observed divorced among Hispanics but there is no statistically significant relationship for Non-Hispanics.

For the conditions that arrive more predictably (treatment 2), the onset of the health limitation is significantly related to an increased probability of being observed divorced for

non-Hispanics. The relationship is not as clear for Hispanics.

Table 2-9 contains similar estimates for women conditioning on Hispanic ethnicity.

Among non-Hispanic women, the onset of a health limitation does appear to be statistically significantly associated with divorce when the conditions are among the set seen to arrive largely exogenously (treatment 1). However, among Hispanic women, there appears to be an initially increased probability of being observed divorced that then becomes negative later.

For the health conditions that are more predictable (treatment 2), the onset of health limitations appears to be strongly associated with the subsequent probability of being observed divorced over most of the 28-years of the panel. The strength of this relationship is much stronger among Hispanic women.