C ONCLUSIONES P ARCIALES

Conceptual Basis

The objective of this alternative is to determine how natural population growth and current employment trends will affect the land uses and development of Guadalupe through the year 2030. Guadalupe’s projected population for 2030 is 7,880 people. This increase in population will require an additional 450 housing units. If economic trends continue, there will be 575 jobs in 2030. Additional commercial square footage will be needed to accommodate this projected increase in jobs.

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Figure 4‐1. Vacant Parcels in Guadalupe by Land Use, March 2009

Source: CalPoly, 2008

4.0 ALTERNATIVES The Existing Trends alternative looks at accommodating this projected growth through developing existing vacant parcels as well as land proposed in the DJ Farms development.

Underutilized parcels were excluded from this analysis because sufficient land exists within vacant parcels and DJ Farms.

Land Uses

Current land use designations informed the analysis in the Existing Trends Alternative. To form a land use concept map for 2030, vacant parcels were filled first, and then options for DJ Farms were explored. Figure 4‐1 illustrates vacant parcels available for residential and commercial uses and Figure 4‐2 illustrates the land use concept for the existing trends alternative. All vacant parcels are utilized to promote infill development and available land in DJ Farms is included in the land use concept.

Residential Land Uses

Under the Existing Trends Alternative, current housing patterns were examined to give insight into future housing needs. The information was used to determine if Guadalupe has the capacity to accommodate housing needs for projected population growth for 2030.

Guadalupe experienced a 39 percent increase in the total number of housing units from 1980 to 2003, which equals approximately 17 percent growth every 10 years (Census, 1980, 1990, 2000). From 1990 to 2000 Guadalupe’s housing stock increased a mere five percent. Since 2000, Guadalupe has experienced a small housing boom, which equals an approximate increase of 14 percent in the total number of housing units.

The projected housing need for Guadalupe by the year 2030 is 450 units, based on the projected population (see Chapter 3.0). To meet this need, this alternative focuses on the development potential of vacant land and in the DJ Farms Specific Plan area. Development potential is based on density standards outlined in the current Zoning Regulations. Residential parcels are broken into four zones with different density thresholds. Vacant residential land equals approximately 12 acres in the City (Cal Poly Land Use Inventory, 2008).

Table 4‐2 shows the number of units that can be built on vacant land at maximum density. The number of units that can be built equals 175. This is lower than projected housing need.

However, the remaining housing need (278 units) can be accommodated in the DJ Farms Specific Plan area.

4.0 ALTERNATIVES Figure 4‐2. Existing Trends Land Use Concept Map

Source: Cal Poly, 2009

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Table 4‐2. Vacant Land Building Capacity in Guadalupe

Zone Vacant Land (acres) Maximum density

(units per acre) Number of units

R‐1 3.94 5 20 residential development in the DJ Farms area. If DJ Farms is developed as proposed, with the number of acres and proposed densities shown, 1058 housing units will be built. This exceeds the housing needs under the City’s existing population growth trends.

Table 4‐3. Proposed Residential Development for DJ Farms Specific Plan area

Density

If all vacant land is developed, only 26 percent of projected housing in the DJ Farms Specific Plan area need be developed to meet the housing need. If no vacant land is utilized, then 43 percent of the DJ Farms Specific Plan area need be developed.

It is clear that with the DJ Farms Specific Plan, Guadalupe will be able to meet projected housing need based on existing trends. Other factors not specifically evaluated here include development of secondary dwelling units (granny flats), redevelopment of underutilized parcels where full density potential is not realized, and General Plan amendments to rezone property to allow higher residential density.

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Commercial Land Uses

Under the existing trends alternative, existing commercial parcels were first analyzed to determine the amount of new commercial square footage required to accommodate the projected increase in jobs by 2030. To assess commercial square footage required,. Commercial parcels were separated into three sectors based on current Guadalupe land uses: industrial, retail and services. Based on existing developed square footage, existing floor area ratios and projected jobs for each commercial category, required commercial acreage for 2030 projections under the existing intensity were determined.

Table 4‐4 shows commercial acreage required to accommodate the number of jobs projected for 2030 based on existing population and employment trends in Guadalupe. In February 2009 there were a total of 12 acres of built commercial space on 46 acres of commercial land supporting 426 jobs. Existing population and employment trends suggest there will be 575 jobs in Guadalupe in 2030. 2008 Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections were used to determine how many jobs will be in each commercial category in 2030. Common standards for number of jobs per acre of commercial space were applied to the ESRI projections and converted into square footage. The result was required square footage of building space per job in 2030, separated by commercial sector.

Once required square footage of building space per job for 2030 was determined, the results were converted into total acres needed, including building space and land. The calculations produced the total acres of land needed to accommodate the 575 jobs projected for 2030 under Guadalupe’s existing building intensity.

Industrial Acreage

Under the existing building intensity Guadalupe needs a total of 43 acres of industrial space to accommodate the projected increase of industrial jobs. In February 2009 there were 33 acres of commercial space devoted to industrial uses, indicating a need for 10 additional acres of industrial space by 2030. In February 2009 there were 29 acres of vacant industrial land, therefore there is enough vacant land to accommodate industrial job growth for 2030 through infill development.

Retail Acreage

Under the existing building intensity Guadalupe needs a total of 21 acres of retail space by 2030 to accommodate projected jobs in the retail sector. In February 2009 there were 10 acres of retail space. To accommodate projected retail jobs Guadalupe will need 11 additional acres. In February 2009 there was one acre of vacant retail land, indicating Guadalupe will need to use the existing vacant parcel for retail and designate ten additional acres for retail by 2030.

4.0 ALTERNATIVES Existing Commercial Building, Sq. Ft. 334,465 164,388 43,834 542,686

Existing Acres of Commercial Land 33 10 3 46

Existing Vacant acres 29 1 0 30

Floor Area Ratio (FAR)¹ 0.23 0.37 0.31 0.27

Commercial sq. ft. per acre 10,135 16,117 13,504 ESRI 2008 Projections of Percentage

of jobs in each commercial category 35% 20% 45% 100%

Projected Number of Jobs in 2030 201 115 259 575

Common Standard for jobs/acre 20 jobs/

acre Total sq. ft. needed for each

commercial sector 438,323 333,960 173,402 945,685 Total acreage needed for each

commercial sector by 2030 43 21 13 77

Existing acreage being used for each

commercial sector 33 10 3 46

Additional acreage needed by 2030 10 11 10 31

¹FAR equals the square footage of built space on a given lot divided by the square footage of that lot

Source: Cal Poly, February 2009

Services Acreage

To accommodate projected growth in service jobs Guadalupe needs a total of 13 acres of land devoted to the services sector by 2030. Currently there are three acres of land being used for services, which means Guadalupe must acquire 10 additional acres of land for services by 2030.

In February 2008 there were no vacant parcels available for this use, so all 10 acres must come from redevelopment of other existing uses or from the DJ Farms Specific Plan Area.

Figures 4‐3 and 4‐4 illustrate potential building density in the Downtown Core and along Guadalupe Street for the year 2030 if current growth patterns continue and infill is used to develop vacant parcels. If infill development is used, Guadalupe has sufficient commercial acreage to accommodate projected job growth in the industrial sector. However, to accommodate projected job growth in the retail and services sectors, acreage for those uses will need to be developed in the DJ Farms area.

4.0 ALTERNATIVES Figure 4‐3. Projected Building Density and Intensity in Downtown Core, 2030

* This image shows potential building densities and intensities under existing growth and development patterns for Guadalupe in 2030. Under this scenario building heights are 1‐2 stories in the Central Business District and buildings remain single‐use buildings. Potential densities and intensities of new commercial buildings located along Olivera Street are also shown.

Source: CalPoly, February 2009

Figure 4‐4. Projected Building Density and Intensity along Guadalupe Street, 2030

Commercial Uses Residential Uses Public Facilities

* This image shows the downtown from a different angle. Under the same building densities and intensities shown in Figure 4-3.

Source: CalPoly, 2009

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