The duration of turnaround event is short and utilizes large manpower resources that include plant and maintenance personnel, technicians, crafts- men, and skilled and specialist contractors� The magnitude of the inter- related activities of the turnaround event requires stringent control and coordination�
Control can be defined as the process where the following actions can be done:
• Tracking progress: Knowing where you are, compared with where you’re supposed to be� The shutdown manager will want to use a periodic reporting system that identifies the status of every activ- ity scheduled for work since the last progress report� These reports summarize the progress for the current period as well as the cumu- lative progress for the entire shutdown�
• Detecting variance from plan: Variance reports are of particular impor- tance to management� They are simple and intuitive, and they give managers an excellent tool by which to quickly assess the health of a shutdown� To detect variance, the shutdown manager needs to compare planned performance to actual performance� Exception reports, variance reports, and graphical reports give management the information necessary for decision making in a concise format� • Forecasting and evaluating potential problem areas: This can be done
prior to their occurrence so that preventive action can be taken� • Taking corrective action: To take corrective action, it is necessary to
know where the problem is and to have that information in time to do something about it� Once there is a significant variance from the plan, the next step is to determine whether corrective action is needed and then act appropriately� In complex shutdowns, this requires examining a number of what-ifs� When problems occur in the shutdown, delays result and the shutdown falls behind sched- ule� For the shutdown to get back on schedule, resources might have to be reallocated� In larger shutdowns, the computer can assist in examining a number of resource reallocation alternatives and help to pick the best�
• Knowing what lies ahead that can affect you: This action reviews trends or situations so that their impact can be analyzed and, if possible, an action proposed to alleviate the situation�
• Providing constant surveillance of shutdown conditions: This is use- ful so that a “no-surprise” situation is created effectively and economically�
The controlling process group is involved in taking measurements and per- forming inspections to find out if there are variances in the plan� If vari- ances are discovered, corrective action is taken to get the shutdown back on track, and the affected shutdown planning processes are repeated to make adjustments to the plan as a result of the variances� Shutdown managers often make the same mistake when trying to keep control of their job� They get wrapped up in the here and now—the measurement and evaluation of their future situation is ignored�
What Are You Actually Controlling?
Two of the targets pertain to the consumption of resources: 1� Schedule: Was the shutdown completed on time? 2� Cost: Did the shutdown come in at cost?
The other two targets are tied to the deliverables of the shutdown: 1� Functionality: Do shutdown deliverables have the expected capability? 2� Quality: Do the deliverables perform as promised?
Detailed plans are created to satisfy two basic objectives: first, to provide a map for the shutdown team to follow during execution; and second, to provide you with an instrument you can use to evaluate whether or not the execution is staying on course as per plan� Your ability to evaluate progress, calculate your variance from the plan, and predict the future depends upon a number of key process elements� Among these are the following elements:
• A baseline of measurement
• Processes and methods for gathering data • An ability to get good data
• An emphasis on timeliness
• Processes, tools, and methods for analyzing past, present, and future performance
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What Are the Baselines?
The shutdown work has three baselines that will be used for performance and progress measurement� They are the scope baseline, the time or sched- ule baseline, and the cost baseline�
The scope baseline is the sum of the deliverables of the shutdown� It repre- sents all the work that must be done to complete the shutdown� Any deliv- erables that are not included in the scope baseline will not be delivered to any of the stakeholders� Generally, however, it is better to establish the scope of the shutdown first and then, after the stakeholders have agreed on the scope, establish the cost and schedule� The scope baseline is the baseline from which all changes must be made� The current scope baseline begins with the original scope baseline; all changes that are approved are added or subtracted from the original scope baseline� After the changes are made, a new baseline is created, which becomes the current baseline� The perfor- mance measurement system and the progress measurement system will measure performance and progress against the current baseline� The cost and schedule baselines will probably need to be adjusted each time the scope baseline is changed�
The time baseline is the schedule of all the work that will be done to produce the scope baseline� Each item of work in the schedule is an item of work that is required to produce an output that either contributes to the delivery of a deliverable or that is an input required by another scheduled task in the shutdown� Scheduled tasks that do not contribute to the delivery of a deliver- able or an input to another task should not be part of the shutdown sched- ule� So exactly what kind of information should you be gathering to evaluate your current variance and to maintain control of your shutdown regarding schedule?
• Date that each completed activity was scheduled to start and finish • Date that each completed activity actually started and finished
The cost baseline is the budget of the shutdown� The cost baseline is derived from the estimates of the work to be done� It is usually shown as a cumula- tive estimated cost or budget curve of all the tasks and associated support— including people—that are expected to be needed during the life cycle of a shutdown� The cost estimates are determined from the work break- down structure (WBS) and in conjunction with the schedule development� Resources and schedules have to be played against each other to obtain the most efficient and cost-effective baseline possible� The cost baseline does not include the contingency budget or the management reserve� The final or detailed cost estimates provide a baseline for assessing the financial perfor- mance of the shutdown� So exactly what kind of information should you be
gathering to evaluate your current variance and to maintain control of your shutdown regarding cost?
• Estimated expenditure for all activities
• Actual expenditure (or labor hours logged) for each completed activity
Ideally, a shutdown should never vary from its original plan; therefore, a comparison between actual performance and the baseline should show no variance� In reality, this zero variance never happens�
Often, after planning is over and the shutdown begins, we find that • Vital tasks and deliverables have been left out of the plan�
• The way we will do the work has changed� There is new discovery after opening the equipment�
• Estimates for cost, schedule, and resources are shown to be wrong� • One or more stakeholders have asked for increases or decreases to
the scope�
All of these are valid reasons to change the baseline early� In fact, a good way to handle this is to allow such changes for the first couple of reporting periods after the shutdown begins, then freeze the baseline for the remain- ing period�
Measuring Progress
The key to finishing a shutdown on time and on budget is to start out that way and stay on track throughout the shutdown� When shutdowns start with challenging schedules, if they fall behind, even by a little, they spend the rest of the shutdown trying to catch up� Other shutdowns, however, seem to have a self-correcting process built into them; if they fall behind a little, the problem is quickly identified and dealt with immediately� Progress mea- surements are the tools we use to identify problems when they are small and there is still time to catch up� Because cost and schedule progress comprise two-thirds of the cost–schedule–quality equilibrium, they are the primary focus of progress measurement�
Controls are actions taken as a result of reports� When implemented, con- trols are designed to bring actual shutdown status back into conformance with the shutdown plan� These reports are designed to support control activi- ties by drawing attention to certain aspects or characteristics of the shutdown,
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such as planned versus actual schedule, trends in the schedule, and actual versus planned resource use�
We typically track performance levels, costs, and time schedules� There are three reasons to use reports in your shutdown�
Progress Reporting System
Once shutdown work is under way, you want to make sure that it proceeds according to plan� To do this, you need to establish a reporting system that keeps you informed of the many variables that describe how the shutdown is proceeding as compared to the plan�
A reporting system has the following characteristics:
• Provides timely, complete, and accurate status information • Doesn’t add so much overhead time as to be counterproductive • Warns of pending problems in time to take action
• Is easily understood by those who have a need to know There are different types of shutdown status reports:
Current period reports: These reports cover only the most recently completed period� They report progress on those activities that were open or scheduled for work during the period� Reports might highlight activities completed and variance between scheduled and actual completion dates� If any activi- ties did not progress according to plan, the report should include a discus- sion of the reasons for the variance and the appropriate corrective measures that will be implemented to correct the schedule slippage�
Cumulative reports: These reports contain the history of the shutdown from the beginning to the end of the current report period� They are more infor- mative than the current period reports because they show trends in the shutdown progress� For example, a schedule variance might be tracked over several successive periods to show improvement� Reports can be at the activ- ity or shutdown level�
Exception reports: Exception reports record variances from the plan� These reports are typically designed for senior management to read and interpret quickly� Reports that are produced for senior management require special consideration� Senior managers do not have a lot of time to read reports that tell them that everything is on schedule and there are no problems serious enough to warrant their attention� In such cases, a one-page, high-level sum- mary report that says everything is okay is usually sufficient� It might also be appropriate to include a more detailed report as an attachment for those who might wish to read more in detail� The same might be true of exception reports� That is, the one-page exception report tells senior managers about
variances from the plan that will be of interest to them, while an attached report provides more details for the interested reader�
There are some reasons why you would want to measure duration and cost variances every week:
• Allow early corrective action: As suggested, the shutdown manager would prefer to be alerted to a schedule or cost problem early in the development of the problem rather than later� Early problem detec- tion may offer more opportunities for corrective action than later detection�
• Determine weekly schedule variance: In our experience, we found that progress on activities open for work should be reported on a weekly basis� This is a good compromise on report frequency and gives the shutdown manager the best opportunity for corrective action plans before the situation escalates to a point where it will be difficult to recover any schedule slippages�
Analyzing the Schedule
Schedule analysis relies heavily upon graphic techniques� A basic shutdown control schedule shows three characteristics that are displayed for each activity:
The original baseline plan The amount of progress made The forecasted time-to-complete
A Gantt chart is one of the most convenient, most used, and easy-to-grasp depictions of shutdown activities that we have encountered in our practice� The chart is formatted as a two-dimensional representation of the shutdown schedule with activities shown in the rows and time shown across the hori- zontal axis� It can be used during planning, for resource scheduling, and for status reporting� The only downside to using Gantt charts is that they do not contain dependency relationships� Some shutdown management soft- ware tools have an option to display these dependencies, but the result is a graphical report that is so cluttered with lines representing the dependen- cies that the report is difficult to read� In some cases, dependencies can be guessed from the Gantt chart, but in most cases, they are lost�
Control Process
The shutdown control process is designed to spot problems early, while they are still small enough to correct� It is an iterative feedback loop in which the shutdown manager uses measurement and testing to evaluate
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deviations from the plan as to cost, schedule, quality, and risk� These devi- ations may or may not result in corrective action� The key is to monitor closely enough and often enough to spot such deviations before they get out of control�
There are five steps in the shutdown control process:
1� Define what will be measured and how often� This should incorpo- rate business requirements, cost constraints, technical specifications, and deadlines, along with a preliminary schedule for monitoring that includes who is responsible for it�
2� Monitor progress and evaluate deviations from the plan� During each reporting period, two kinds of information are collected: a� Actual shutdown data, which include time, budget, and resources
used, along with completion status of current tasks�
b� Unanticipated changes, which include changes to budget, schedule, or scope, that are not results of shutdown perfor- mance� For example, heavy rain may delay the completion of a shutdown�
3� Report progress� Keep reports succinct and timely� Do not delay a report until after a problem is “fixed” to make the report look better� Likewise, avoid lengthy reports that delay the dissemination of important information to others in the organization�
4� Analyze the report� Look for trends in the data� Avoid trying to “fix” every deviation� If there is no trend to the deviation, it likely does not require corrective action at this time�
5� Take action where necessary� This includes updating the shutdown plan and notifying any stakeholders who are affected by the changes� If the changes are big enough, they will require steering committee approval in advance�
Where should the boundary line be drawn? There should be a predeter- mined tolerance limit—only variances outside that limit need be approved by the sponsor� If the tolerance is too small the shutdown manager would spend all his time getting tiny variances approved� If the tolerance is too wide, the sponsor has little or no control over costs� Before a stage starts the shutdown manager agrees on how much he can change things without seek- ing sponsor approval—i�e�, his tolerance limits� The shutdown manager must then decide how much of his tolerance he will delegate to those below him in the chain of command�
Bear in mind also that tolerance is not on the current position versus the plan but on where we are going to end up� So, if we’re currently 25% over budget but nevertheless confident of completing the stage on budget, no
approval is needed� If we are currently on budget but think we will end up 25% over budget, that requires approval (unless we have a very generous tolerance limit indeed!)�
Change Management
Change management is the process by which changes to the shutdown scope, deliverables, timescales, or resources are formally defined, evaluated, and approved prior to implementation� A core aspect of the shutdown man- ager’s role is to manage change within the scheduled time successfully� This is achieved by understanding the business and system drivers requiring the change, documenting the benefits and costs of adopting the change, and for- mulating a structured plan for implementing the change� Issues and risks that crop up come under change management�
At the start of a shutdown, there is always uncertainty� However well the requirements are defined, they will change as the shutdown progresses� Issues will arise that were not foreseen�
What is an “issue” in the context of a shutdown? A risk that has hap- pened, something unexpected that has occurred, a potential problem that has come to light—in other words, a threat to shutdown success has been identified� We need to deal with these threats�
What is the difference between an issue and a risk? Threats to shutdown success that are identified at the start of the stage or shutdown are called risks� Frankly it doesn’t matter too much whether these things that crop up during the shutdown are called issues or risks� What does matter is that how they are managed�
• Before the shutdown starts, design an issue process that will meet your shutdown’s need�
• When an issue arises, write down what it is�
• Assign the issue to somebody to resolve� In a small shutdown, the shutdown manager will decide who to give the issue to for reso- lution� In a large shutdown, this might be delegated to the team leaders—they decide which team member should be asked to resolve an issue�
• The person asked to resolve the issue does whatever it takes to get it resolved�
• Escalation paths must be open� The last thing you want to happen when the first major issue arises is not to know how to get to the sponsor—so you send him an email which sits in his inbox for a week� Before the shutdown starts, agree with the sponsor and steer- ing committee members how you’ll get urgent issues to them—via
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their secretary, via a phone call? Get them to agree that they will make timely decisions�
• Write down how the issue was resolved�
• In status meetings, monitor open issues and give particular atten- tion to issues that are past their target resolution date�
Let’s have a look at a sample issue form�
Issue Form
Job Name: Issue No: Short Description of Issue:
Raised By: Date Raised: