Logística de campo
1.1 Características sociodemográficas de los integrantes
Sources: The real GDP series is obtainable from the BEA. The Tech and History series are based on statistics reported in R.R. Bowker’s The Book publishing annual (various years)
Figure 4. Impulse Responses of ln(GDP) to Positive Technology Shocks
Notes: These VAR Cholesky orthogonalized impulse response functions are estimated using annual data from 1955-1997. Each panel displays the response, in percentages, to a one-standard deviation shock to technology (or history titles) and the 90% confidence interval. In each case, ln(GDP) is the first variable in the bi-variate system.
Figure 5. Responses of Productivity Measures to Positive Technology Shocks
Notes: These VAR Cholesky orthogonalized impulse response functions are estimated using annual data from 1955-1997. Each panel displays the response, in percentages, to a one-standard deviation shock to technology and the 90%
confidence interval. In each case, ln(TFP) or ln(Y/L) is the first variable in the bi-variate system.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Notes:. Each panel displays the response, in percentages, to a one-standard deviation shock to technology and the 90% confidence interval. In each case, ln(BP) is ordered first, and ln(technology) is ordered last in the VAR. The results are based on annual data from 1955-1997.
Figure 6. Responses of GDP and Productivity to Technology Shocks (Tri-Variate VAR) Responses of GDP
ln(Tech) Shock ln(Tech2) Shock ln(Comp) Shock ln(Comp2) Shock ln(Tel) Shock
Responses of TFP Measure 1
ln(Tech) Shock ln(Tech2) Shock ln(Comp) Shock ln(Comp2) Shock ln(Tel) Shock
Responses of TFP Measure 2
ln(Tech) Shock ln(Tech2) Shock ln(Comp) Shock ln(Comp2) Shock ln(Tel) Shock
Responses of Output per hour
ln(Tech) Shock ln(Tech2) Shock ln(Comp) Shock ln(Comp2) Shock ln(Tel) Shock
LNTECH SHOCK
Figure 7. Impulse Response Functions for Four Variable VAR using TFP Measure 1
ln(Inv) ln(Inv) ln(Inv)
Notes: These VAR Cholesky orthogonalized impulse response functions are estimated using annual data from 1955-1997. Each panel displays the response, in percentages, to a one-standard deviation shock to technology and the 90%
confidence interval. In each case, Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , where Yt = [ln(Invt), Δln(L), ln(TFP1t), ln(Xt)] ′, and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
LNTECH SHOCK
Notes: These VAR Cholesky orthogonalized impulse response functions are estimated using annual data from 1955-1997. Each panel displays the response, in percentages, to a one-standard deviation shock to technology and the 90%
confidence interval. In each case, Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , where Yt = [ln(Invt), Δln(L), ln(TFP2t), ln(Xt)] ′, and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 1: The Relationship between Investment and the Indicators
Panel A: Dependent Variable : Investment
Technology
Indicator βinvestment βindicator
Does the Indicator Granger-Cause Investment?
P-Value
Variance Decomposition (effect of Indicator) 3 yr 6 yr 9 yr
Bowker’s Tech 0.6026*** 0.0756** 0.036 4.88 12.57 15.98
LOC Tech 0.5614*** 0.1829*** 0.002 6.14 18.79 25.58
Computers 0.7573*** 0.0424* 0.086 5.79 16.06 20.79
Comp+networks 0.7632*** 0.0474* 0.057 6.84 17.51 21.61
Telecomm 0.7758*** 0.0397 0.364 1.18 1.73 1.82
Panel B: Dependent Variable Technology indicator
Technology
Indicator γinvestment γindictor
Does Investment Granger-Cause the Indicator?
P-Value
Variance Decomposition (effect of Investment)
3 yr 6 yr 9 yr
Bowker’s Tech 0.1177 0.7983*** 0.675 1.63 2.58 2.95
LOC Tech -0.0936 0.9274*** 0.452 0.99 2.44 3.16
Computers -0.1908 0.7539*** 0.631 2.54 3.75 4.24
Comp+networks -0.2911 0.7185*** 0.463 2.97 5.06 5.80
Telecomm -0.2492 0.2825*** 0.317 7.03 8.16 8.37
Notes: ***,**,* denotes significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels respectively. The variance decomposition results are based on the following VAR: Zt = α+δt+ΒZt-1 +εt where,
Zt = [ln(Investmentt), ln(Indicatort)] ′.
Table 2. Relationship between Science and Technology
Notes: (AB) indicates the lag length is selected by both the AIC and BIC, (A) indicates the lag length selected by the AIC, and (B) indicates the lag length selected by the BIC.
Indicator Does Science Granger-cause
Technology? Does R&D Granger-cause
Tech-nology? Do Patents Granger-cause Technol-ogy?
LOC New Tech Books (TECH2) 0.0160 0.4734
1 (B)
3 (A) 0.0227 2 (AB) 0.9286 1 (AB)
Computer Software & Hardware
Books (COMP) 0.09524
0.02190
1 (B)
2 (A) 0.0912 2 (AB) 0.2056 1 (AB)
Computer Software, Hardware
& Network Books (COMP2) 0.0968 0.0124
Does the Indicator Granger-cause R&D ?
Does the Indicator Granger-cause Patents?
LOC New Tech Books (TECH2) 0.2613 0.0381
1 (B)
3 (A) 0.3077 2 (AB) 0.0227 1 (AB)
Computer Software & Hardware Books (COMP)
0.2611 0.0614
1 (B)
2 (A) 0.0149 2 (AB) 0.9650 1 (AB)
Computer Software, Hardware
& Network Books (COMP2)
0.1937 0.0375
1 (B)
2 (A) 0.0137 2 (AB) 0.9296 1 (AB)
Telecommunications (TEL) 0.5260 1 (AB) 0.7325 2 (AB) 0.8882 1 (AB)
Table 3: Cross-Correlations Between Detrended GDP, Output per hour, TFP and Technology Indicators
GDPt-2 GDPt-1 GDPt GDPt+1 GDPt+2 Y/Lt-2 Y/Lt-1 Y/Lt Y/Lt+1 Y/Lt+2
TECHt 0.1395 0.0063 0.0482 0.3491 -0.2110 0.1168 0.1204 0.0510 -0.0538 -0.3271 TECH2t 0.0508 -0.2559 0.0123 0.1428 0.1307 -0.2325 -0.0213 0.2188 0.1241 0.0201
COMPt -0.3463 -0.2017 0.2061 0.4748 0.0363 -0.2482 0.3207 0.3609 -0.0078 -0.1780 COMP2t -0.3357 -0.1977 0.2066 0.4593 0.0278 -0.2487 0.3146 0.3502 -0.0178 -0.1639 TELt 0.0239 -0.0801 -0.4762 -0.0227 0.3319 -0.2501 -0.1453 -0.1940 0.3182 0.0767 PATt -0.0139 -0.0346 -0.1153 -0.1630 0.0145 -0.1602 -0.0893 -0.0627 -0.0902 0.2759 Business
Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.2234 0.2185 0.3786 -0.0266 -0.2705 0.0621 0.3016 -0.1112 0.0149 0.0218 TECHt -0.4099 -0.2534 -0.0402 0.2337 0.2371 -0.1199 0.0680 0.2270 0.3382 0.3360 TECH2t -0.0222 -0.1302 0.0260 0.1532 0.2268 0.0709 0.1922 0.2927 0.2582 0.1800
COMPt -0.4720 -0.3559 -0.0698 0.2481 0.3572 -0.1122 0.2849 0.5110 0.5660 0.5500 COMP2t -0.4976 -0.3791 -0.0823 0.2390 0.3492 -0.1353 0.2632 0.4871 0.5405 0.5337 TELt -0.0425 0.0729 0.1044 0.4145 0.6003 0.2595 0.4141 0.4221 0.5533 0.3501 PATt 0.4359 0.4009 0.3214 0.1929 0.1209 0.4291 0.3557 0.2333 0.0964 0.0619 Medium
Term Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.2216 -0.0176 0.1155 0.2131 0.3020 0.0429 0.2407 0.3802 0.5402 0.5735 TFP1t-2 TFP1t-1 TFP1t TFP1t+1 TFP1t+2 TFP2t-2 TFP2t-1 TFP2t TFP2t+1 TFP2t+2
TECHt 0.1475 0.0700 0.0500 0.1453 -0.3451 0.0336 0.1199 0.0925 -0.0825 -0.2245 TECH2t -0.1439 -0.1685 0.1673 0.1698 0.0735 -0.1502 0.0556 0.0330 0.1801 0.1778 COMPt -0.3578 0.1207 0.3848 0.2527 -0.1354 -0.0182 0.1264 0.0174 0.0043 0.1734 COMP2t -0.3527 0.1179 0.3776 0.2378 -0.1298 -0.0055 0.1227 -0.0023 0.0041 0.1877 TELt -0.1793 -0.1401 -0.3641 0.2353 0.2505 -0.1642 -0.4197 0.0678 0.2757 -0.1941 PATt -0.1288 -0.0834 -0.0894 -0.1330 0.2049 -0.0092 -0.0300 -0.2488 -0.0738 0.4846 Business
Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.0412 0.3499 0.1044 -0.0563 -0.1474 0.0605 0.0615 -0.0188 0.2445 -0.0881 TECHt -0.2120 -0.0215 0.1713 0.3571 0.3215 -0.2685 -0.0490 0.1353 0.2439 0.3018 TECH2t 0.0495 0.0892 0.2591 0.3012 0.2675 0.1005 0.1336 0.0851 0.0961 0.0739
COMPt -0.2948 0.0462 0.3504 0.5344 0.5469 -0.1542 0.0692 0.2421 0.4211 0.5760 COMP2t -0.3183 0.0264 0.3350 0.5178 0.5347 -0.1795 0.0399 0.2105 0.3968 0.5592 TELt 0.1430 0.3166 0.3379 0.5813 0.5173 0.2153 0.3003 0.5404 0.6160 0.3966 PATt 0.4487 0.3896 0.2830 0.1384 0.1018 0.6105 0.5402 0.3578 0.2183 0.1484 Medium
Term Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.0477 0.1637 0.2934 0.4316 0.4905 -0.0592 0.1418 0.3480 0.5350 0.5865
Table 3 continued:
INVt-2 INVt-1 INVt INVt+1 INVt+2 Hourst-2 Hourst-1 Hourst Hourst+1 Hourst+2
TECHt 0.2070 0.0736 0.0431 0.1850 -0.2251 0.0900 -0.0504 0.0261 0.3892 -0.0649 TECH2t 0.1142 -0.1384 0.0209 0.0970 0.0516 0.1630 -0.2566 -0.0908 0.0900 0.1266
COMPt -0.3081 -0.1229 0.2227 0.4135 -0.0065 -0.2433 -0.3620 0.0438 0.4984 0.1221 COMP2t -0.2967 -0.1194 0.2173 0.3986 -0.0132 -0.2320 -0.3550 0.0494 0.4869 0.1066 TELt -0.0105 -0.2213 -0.4580 0.0135 0.4314 0.1433 -0.0146 -0.4043 -0.1744 0.3094 PATt -0.0550 -0.0520 -0.0711 -0.0873 0.0100 0.0614 0.0062 -0.0905 -0.1271 -0.1155 Business
Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.1618 0.2467 0.4124 0.0082 -0.3058 -0.2622 0.0848 0.4472 -0.0348 -0.2921 TECHt -0.0082 0.0680 0.1339 0.2202 0.0776 -0.3972 -0.3244 -0.1714 0.0768 0.0819 TECH2t -0.1550 -0.2391 -0.0409 0.1491 0.2601 -0.0644 -0.2539 -0.1329 0.0301 0.1568 COMPt -0.3965 -0.3064 -0.0632 0.1973 0.2060 -0.4718 -0.5607 -0.3624 -0.0332 0.0991 COMP2t -0.4063 -0.3021 -0.0421 0.2216 0.2253 -0.4880 -0.5749 -0.3632 -0.0294 0.0992 TELt -0.1234 -0.0997 -0.0602 0.2548 0.4505 -0.1920 -0.1472 -0.1159 0.1622 0.4851 PATt 0.0093 0.0244 0.0392 -0.0109 0.0039 0.2553 0.2564 0.2343 0.1648 0.1024 Medium
Term Cycle Frequencies
R&Dt -0.0367 0.0205 -0.0204 -0.0659 -0.0874 -0.2745 -0.1534 -0.0802 -0.0584 0.0236
σGDP σINVEST σHOURS σTFP1 σTFP2 σTECH σTECH2 σCOMP σCOMP2 σTEL
Business Cycle Frequencies
0.0144 0.0472 0.0139 0.0071 0.0077 0.0759 0.0353 0.1868 0.1874 0.1264
Medium Term Cycle Frequencies
0.0267 0.0692 0.0236 0.0137 0.0187 0.1559 0.0506 0.3479 0.3375 0.1758
Table 4: P-values of Granger Causality Tests
Technology Indicator
Does Technology Granger-Cause
GDP?
Does GDP Granger-Cause
Technology?
Does Technology Granger-Cause Productivity Measures?
TFP 1 TFP2 Y/L
Does Productivity Grange-Cause
Technology?
TFP 1 TFP 2 Y/L Bowker's New Tech Books
(TECH) 0.004 0.805 0.046 0.412 0.095 0.900 0.868 0.408
Library of Congress
New Tech Books (TECH2) 0.015 0.872 0.153 0.808 0.195 0.486 0.052 0.113 Computer Software & Hardware
Books (COMP)
0.002 0.282 0.007 0.018 0.068 0.504 0.928 0.607
Computer Software, Hardware &
Networks (COMP2) 0.002 0.237 0.006 0.015 0.075 0.549 0.886 0.583
Telecommunications (TEL) 0.002 0.467 0.002 0.053 0.050 0.055 0.062 0.034
Patents (PAT) 0.480 0.418 0.816 0.800 0.619 0.670 0.896 0.433
Research & Development (RANDD)
2 lags
0.117 0.003 0.059 0.038 0.134 0.001 0.064 0.001
Bowker's new History Books
(HIS) 0.528 0.275 0.600 0.285 0.661 0.132 0.163 0.109
Notes: For the cases of TECH, TECH2, COMP, COMP2, TEL, PAT, and HIS, Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , and for the case of R&D
Yt = α+γt+ρ1Yt-1 +ρ2Yt-2 +εt , where Yt = [ln(GDPt), ln(Xt)] ′, Yt = [ln(TFPt), ln(Xt)] ′ or Yt = [ln(Y/Lt), ln(Xt)] ′ and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 5. Percent of Variation Due to Technology in Two Variable VARs
Years ln(GDP) ln(TFP1) ln(TFP2) ln(Y/L)
Bowker's New Tech Books 3 15.02 7.19 1.13 5.54
(TECH) 6 37.59 20.30 3.92 14.84
9 46.68 27.34 6.22 20.09
Library of Congress New Tech Books 3 9.43 3.08 0.07 3.05
(TECH2) 6 27.43 10.01 0.24 8.22
9 37.67 15.02 0.39 11.30
Computer Software 3 18.41 16.44 13.30 7.55
& Hardware Books 6 42.25 35.87 30.76 17.15
(COMP) 9 49.55 41.95 38.03 21.50
Computer Software, Hardware 3 18.84 16.68 14.00 7.11
& Networks Books 6 40.99 34.21 30.63 15.46
(COMP2) 9 47.02 39.14 37.05 19.01
Telecommunications 3 22.61 19.41 5.85 7.96
(TEL) 6 30.73 24.05 7.10 10.42
9 32.67 25.22 7.41 11.14
Patents 3 0.52 0.05 0.06 0.25
(PAT) 6 2.35 0.25 0.28 1.14
9 4.61 0.52 0.56 2.34
R&D 3 0.43 0.25 3.87 0.69
2 lags 6 1.24 4.18 21.44 2.17
(RANDD) 9 3.90 10.55 33.10 6.66
Notes: These decompositions are based on bi-variate VARs where ln(GDP), ln(TFP) and ln(Y/L) are or-dered first. For the cases of using the new book measures and patents the VAR takes the form Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , while for the case of R&D Yt = α+γt+ρ1Yt-1 +ρ2Yt-2 +εt , where Yt = [ln(GDPt), ln(Xt)] ′, Yt = [ln(TFPt), ln(Xt)] ′ or Yt = [ln(Y/Lt), ln(Xt)] ′ and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 6. Incremental change in goodness of fit.
GDP TFP1 TFP 2 Y/L
Technology Indicator R-bar Change in
R-Bar R-bar Change in
R-Bar R-bar Change in
R-Bar R-bar Change in R-Bar
None 0.9970 0.9917 0.8184 0.9960
Bowker's New Tech Books
(TECH) 0.9975 5.36E-04 0.9924 6.35E-04 0.8169 -1.50E-03 0.9962 1.89E-04 Library of Congress New Tech
Books (TECH2)
0.9974 3.72E-04 0.9920 2.32E-04 0.8138 -4.61E-03 0.9961 7.40E-05 Computer Software & Hardware
Books
(COMP) 0.9976 5.97E-04 0.9930 1.28E-03 0.8399 2.14E-02 0.9963 2.43E-04 Computer Software, Hardware
& Network Books (COMP2)
0.9976 6.19E-04 0.9931 1.32E-03 0.8412 2.28E-02 0.9962 2.26E-04 Telecommunications
(TEL) 0.9976 6.20E-04 0.9934 1.63E-03 0.8316 1.32E-02 0.9963 2.94E-04 Patents
(PAT) 0.9970 -3.80E-05 0.9915 -2.05E-04 0.8139 -4.58E-03 0.9959 -7.80E-05 R&D
(RANDD) 0.9971 8.60E-05 0.9929 1.12E-03 0.8217 3.26E-03 0.9968 7.65E-04 Notes: These results are based on bi-variate VARs. For the cases of using the new book measures and patents the VAR takes the form Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , while for the case of R&D Yt = α+γt+ρ1Yt-1 +ρ2Yt-2 +εt , where Yt = [ln(GDPt), ln(Xt)] ′, Yt = [ln(TFPt), ln(Xt)] ′ or Yt = [ln(Y/Lt), ln(Xt)] ′ and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 7: P-values of Short-run - Causality Tests for Tr-variate VARs
Technology Indicator Does Technol-ogy Granger-Cause GDP?
Does GDP Granger-Cause
Technology?
Does Technology Granger-Cause Productivity Measures?
TFP 1 TFP2 Y/L
Does Productivity Grange-Cause
Technology?
TFP 1 TFP 2 Y/L Bowker's New Tech Books
(TECH) 0.000 0.960 0.002 0.090 0.069 0.233 0.100 0.100
Library of Congress
New Tech Books (TECH2) 0.004 0.891 0.016 0.297 0.164 0.456 0.017 0.092 Computer Software & Hardware
Books (COMP)
0.002 0.245 0.004 0.013 0.072 0.704 0.652 0.559
Computer Software, Hardware &
Networks (COMP2) 0.002 0.210 0.005 0.012 0.079 0.690 0.688 0.567
Telecommunications (TEL) 0.003 0.381 0.003 0.066 0.039 0.075 0.108 0.026
Patents (PAT) 0.007 0.033 0.107 0.374 0.507 0.002 0.034 0.001
Research & Development (RANDD)
2 lags
0.042 0.001 0.046 0.048 0.054 0.003 0.117 0.003
Bowker's new History Books
(HIS) 0.489 0.253 0.588 0.250 0.671 0.169 0.254 0.117
Notes: For the cases of TECH, TECH2, COMP, COMP2, TEL, PAT, and HIS, Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , and for the case of R&D
Yt = α+γt+ρ1Yt-1 +ρ2Yt-2 +εt , where Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(GDPt), ln(Xt)] ′, Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(TFPt), ln(Xt)] ′ or Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(Y/Lt), ln(Xt)] ′ and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 8: Percent of Variation Due to Technology Indicators and Stock Prices in the Tri-variate VARs
Years ln(GDP) ln(TFP1) Ln(TFP2) ln(Y/L)
Indicator BP Indicator BP Indicator BP Indicator BP Bowker's New Tech Books 3 20.64 13.09 15.38 30.81 4.75 18.96 6.27 23.90
(TECH) 6 39.20 16.47 25.48 35.98 9.17 27.87 12.96 24.87 9 42.65 16.06 27.12 37.21 10.34 32.13 15.37 23.57 Library of Congress 3 14.21 9.11 11.84 26.39 1.68 17.80 4.40 21.38
New Tech Books 6 34.20 12.16 22.84 31.14 2.58 27.06 10.11 21.27 (TECH2) 9 39.50 13.91 24.11 35.71 2.33 34.35 12.77 21.63 Computer Software 3 17.52 1.52 17.51 8.98 14.99 6.64 7.09 11.53
& Hardware Books 6 40.94 1.14 37.10 6.53 33.52 7.76 14.96 8.17 (COMP) 9 46.50 2.03 41.94 6.04 40.50 7.90 16.75 6.82 Computer Software, Hardware 3 17.82 1.19 17.36 8.34 15.52 6.34 6.85 11.48
& Networks Books 6 39.91 0.89 35.64 6.26 33.45 7.93 13.85 8.37 (COMP2) 9 44.79 1.37 40.04 5.82 39.80 8.75 15.37 7.03 Telecommunications 3 20.34 2.58 18.11 14.15 5.71 6.32 8.15 14.13
(TEL) 6 27.76 5.50 22.50 17.43 7.62 11.17 9.85 13.02 9 29.33 8.90 23.45 20.72 8.36 16.63 10.18 12.07 Notes: For all cases Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , where Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(GDPt), ln(Xt)] ′, Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(TFPt), ln(Xt)] ′ or Yt = [ln(BPt), ln(Y/Lt), ln(Xt)] ′ and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.
Table 9. Variation Due to Technology in the Four-Variable VAR
Horizon TFP1 TFP2
(In Years) ln(Inv) Δln(L) ln(TFP) Ln(Inv) Δln(L) ln(TFP)
Bowker's New Tech Books 3 3.36 5.03 8.65 5.48 6.48 1.82
(TECH) 6 10.35 6.41 15.40 13.06 7.48 4.56
9 13.06 6.49 17.89 15.25 7.51 5.34
Library of Congress 3 2.07 0.02 1.16 3.46 0.24 0.34
New Tech Books 6 4.11 0.13 1.74 5.89 0.43 0.37
(TECH2) 9 4.74 0.19 2.01 6.16 0.58 0.36
Computer Software & 3 3.02 3.49 11.69 5.68 5.48 10.05
Hardware Books 6 10.02 4.65 21.03 16.60 6.91 21.45
(COMP) 9 12.60 4.68 23.62 19.83 6.92 24.23
Computer Software, 3 4.19 4.04 12.55 6.44 5.66 10.56
Hardware & Networks 6 11.51 4.79 20.27 17.13 6.75 21.07
(COMP2) 9 13.51 4.79 21.99 19.76 6.76 23.18
Telecommunications 3 7.51 1.68 18.83 3.75 0.36 10.81
(TEL) 6 10.71 1.57 17.61 5.60 0.40 10.39
9 10.83 1.58 16.95 5.70 0.41 9.99
Notes: For all cases Yt = α+γt+ρYt-1 +εt , where Yt = [ln(Invt), Δln(L), ln(TFP1t), ln(Xt)] ′, or Yt = [ln(Invt), Δln(L), ln(TFP2t), ln(Xt)] ′, and Xt is the value of the indicator at time t.