Características socioeconómicas del agricultor

Table 6.11 presents the losses for the different biomes under the two scenarios for the period 2000 to 2050. The fuller estimation scenario allows more biomes to be included. Table 6.11 Annual loss in the year 2050 from biodiversity loss, had biodiversity loss not been halted -values across Biomes (with detail for losses from natural areas)

Annual loss in the year 2050 from biodiversity loss, given that loss had to halted at 2000 levels. Billion (10^9) EUR

per year

Partial Estimation Fuller Estimation

Boreal forest -163 -1999

natural areas -216 -2397

Savanna not assessed 0 -1135

natural areas not assessed 0 -1183

Grassland and steppe -146 -582

natural areas -123 -501

Tropical forest -536 -3362

natural areas -633 -3863

Tropical woodland not assessed 0 -707

natural areas not assessed 0 -661

Tundra not assessed 0 not assessed 0

natural areas not assessed 0 not assessed 0

Scrubland -428 -788

natural areas -444 -932

Warm mixed forest -249 -2332

natural areas -309 -2774

Temperate mixed forest -190 -1372

natural areas -203 -1457

Cool coniferous forest -47 -701

natural areas -56 -780

Wooded tundra not assessed 0 not assessed 0

natural areas not assessed 0 not assessed 0

Temperate deciduous forest -133 -1025

natural areas -135 -1039

Mediterranean shrub not assessed 0 66

natural areas not assessed 0 18

World Total (Land-based

ecosystems*) * (Exl Ice/ Hot Desert) -1891 -13938

Natural areas -2119 -15568 Bare natural -2 -10 Forest managed 258 1852 Extensive Agriculture -206 -1109 Intensive Agriculture 307 1303 Woody biofuels 55 381 Cultivated grazing -184 -786 Artificial surfaces 0 0

The greatest losses are from the tropical forest biomes. The next greatest total losses are from other forest biomes. Total losses from Savanna and Grassland are estimated to be less. Note that the total values reflect the combination of different levels of the value of loss of ecosystem services per hectare (which are also higher for tropical forests than others), and total areas lost/converted. For a range of biomes there have been no estimations – particularly in the partial estimation scenario, though also in the higher estimation scenario. This underlines that the numbers should be seen as underestimates, even the fuller scenario has a range of gaps, both at the biome level, and at which ecosystem services are represented in the calculations (see section 6.4.4).

Forestry Biomes

As more information was available on ecosystem service values for the forest biomes and that information was complemented by extensive additional work to develop values for each of the global regions without recourse, as extensively, to benefit transfer techniques, further details are given on the forestry biomes. Table 6.12a presents the summary for the forestry biomes for the period to 2050. The losses of services from the change in land use and biodiversity for the 6 forest biomes together are equivalent to 1.3 trillion (10^12) Euro (partial estimation) and 10.8 trillion (10^12) Euro (fuller estimation) loss of value in 2050 from the cumulative loss of biodiversity over the period 2000 to 2050. These numbers have been calculated using values for 8 ecosystem services (see table 6.13 for services included and not included). When compared to the projected GDP for 2050, these values equate to 0.7% of GDP for the partial estimate, and 5.5% of GDP for the fuller estimate.

Table 6.12a Loss of Ecosystem services for the forest Biome’s – value of loss in billion (10^9) EUR in 2050.

Forest biomes Estimation Partial Estimation Fuller

Boreal forest -163 -1999

natural areas -216 -2397

Tropical forest -536 -3362

natural areas -633 -3863

Warm mixed forest -249 -2332

natural areas -309 -2774

Temperate mixed forest -190 -1372

natural areas -203 -1457

Cool coniferous forest -47 -701

natural areas -56 -780

Temperate deciduous forest -133 -1025

natural areas -135 -1039

Forest Total -1317 -10791

Natural areas -1552 -12310

World GDP in 2050 (trillion (10^12) EUR)* 195.5

Losses of ESS from forests as share of % GDP -0.7% -5.5% Losses of ESS from natural areas in forest biomes as

share of % GDP -0.8% -6.3%

The losses from conversion of natural areas (for the forest biomes this is forest) is around 15% higher than the loss across land uses within the biome. This is due to the gains in ecosystem service flows from the land uses of “Forest managed”, “Intensive Agriculture” and “Woody biofuels”. Table 6.12b present the summary for forest biomes for the period 2000 to 2010. The average yearly loss of ecosystem services from changes in landuse and biodiversity levels in the forestry biomes comes to around 28 billion EUR per year for each year’s loss. In other words, after 10 years worth of loss of natural capital the total loss of services in the year 2010 is 276billion EUR. Similarly, as in the example below, no discounting had been applied, the total loss from 1 year’s loss of biodiversity over the 10 year period (as we lose every year following the loss of biodiversity) also amounts to 276 billion EUR – see Box 6.2 for different ways of presenting the costs, and for cost estimates with discounting applied. As with the number presented for the COPI to 2050, the results for 2000 to 2010 also relate to but a subset of ecosystem services.

Table 6.12b Loss of Ecosystem services for the forest Biome’s – value of loss in billion (10^9) EUR – over period 2000 to 2010

Loss of Ecosystem services - 2000 to 2010 Quality Quantity Total

Loss in 2010

Average loss due to 1 years’ Loss of biodiversity World Total (Land-based

ecosystems*) -130 -146 -276 -28 Natural areas -139 -272 -411 -41 Bare natural 0 0 0 0 Forest managed -17 49 32 3 Extensive Agriculture -5 -40 -45 -5 Intensive Agriculture 6 85 90 9 Woody biofuels 0 5 5 1 Cultivated grazing 26 27 53 5 Artificial surfaces 0 0 0 0

Table 6.13 Ecosystem services covered in the COPI assessment for Forest Biomes

Included

(8 services) Provisioning services • Food, fiber, fuel

Regulating services

• Air quality maintenance • Soil quality maintenance

• Climate regulation (i.e. carbon storage)

• Water regulation (i.e. flood prevention, timing and magnitude of runoff, aquifer recharge etc.)

• Water purification and waste management

Cultural services

• Cultural diversity, spiritual and religious values, educational values, inspiration, aesthetic values, social relations, sense of place and identity, cultural heritage values

• Recreation and ecotourism Not included

(10 services) Provisioning services • Biochemicals, natural medicines, pharmaceuticals • Ornamental resources

• Fresh water

Regulating services

• Temperature regulation, precipitation • Erosion control

• Technology development from nature (bionica) • Regulation of human diseases

• Biological control and pollination

• Natural hazards control / mitigation (i.e. storm and avalanche protection, fire resistance etc.)

Cultural services

• Living comfort due to environmental amenities

Box 6.3: Different ways of presenting the scale of the COPI of biodiversity loss – Results for the forestry biomes.

There are several ways of representing the losses for ecosystem services over a time period. This box presents the results for the application of the market capitalisation approach to the loss in value - ie what is the net present value (NPV) of the stream of future loss of services due to loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.

To derive associated NPVs requires the application of a “discount rate”. Here two illustrative values are used – a 4% real and a 1% real discount rate. The former is broadly a market discount rate as used in most CBA, and the latter is a social discount rate that tries to integrate ethical issues of future generations.

What is the value over the next 50 years of a year's biodiversity loss today? Total for the forest biomes. Using a 4% real discount rate the net present value of the loss of ecosystem services is around 161 billion (10^9) EUR for the partial

estimate and 1.35 trillion (10^12) EUR for the fuller estimate. With a 1% discount rate the values are

significantly higher as the future value is less discounted. The partial estimate’s NPV is 377 billion EUR and the fuller estimate at 3.1 trillion (10^12) EUR.

What is the cumulative value over the next 50 years of biodiversity loss to 2050? The NPV of the cumulative losses (the “total bill” for the losses) are:

d.r. 4% Partial estimate 4.1 trillion EUR Fuller estimate 33.3 trillion EUR d.r. 1% Partial estimate 11.8 trillion EUR

Fuller estimate 95.1 trillion EUR These are several messages from this. First whichever way the cost of not halting biodiversity loss is presented, the numbers are

compelling and underline the need for urgent action. Secondly, the choice of discount rate plays an important role in the perception of value in the present. Even a relatively “low” (in conventional terms) rate seriously discounts the perception of future value. This raises ethical questions regarding what is an appropriate choice of discount rate for societal evaluations. The COPI study has sought to