B. Objetivos específicos
IV. MARCO TEÓRICO
4.12. Cartera vencida
In this section, several possible directions will be investigated for solving the environmental problems related to nitrogen pollution. Four measures, or measure packages, will be evaluated with regard to their potential usefulness in relation to the signalled problem flows: the atmospheric deposition of acidifying nitrogen compounds on terrestrial ecosystems, the leaching of nitrates to groundwater, and the flows of nitrogen compounds into the North Sea.
As an initial measure, the impacts of an import restriction on agricultural products for fodder are calculated. The problem analysis (Van der Voet et al, 1994; Brandenburg et 1992) leads to the suspicion that this policy line will not lead to dramatic changes in the EU nitrogen budget. However, since this measure could be part of a larger package, it is important to assess its principle
The second line is based on a maximization of technical emission abatement measures. This line radicalizes the current EC policy line but preserves the current state of the agricultural sector as far as possible. The main goal here is to ascertain whether it is feasible to solve the environmental problems without affecting agricultural policy goals.
The other two policy lines are more radical still and would in fact imply an agricultural revolution. The third option proceeds from the assumption that the use of industrial fertilizer is the root of the problems. This opinion has followers in environmentalist circles as well as among scientists et 1992; O'Connell, 1992; 1992); it also follows from the problem analysis presented in Van der Voet et (1994), where the import and production of fertilizer is identified as the main ultimate origin of all three problem flows. The extreme solution in this case is to refrain from using industrial fertilizer at all.
The fourth option is equally drastic, but starts from the basic assumption that the problems arise from the stockbreeding sector. It is argued that the use of animal manure inevitably causes losses of nutrients to the environment (Ministry of Agriculture, 1993; Huppes et al, 1992;
but also concluded by Baker & 1992). Although ultimately these flows can be traced back to industrial fertilizer, the inefficiency of stockbreeding processes causes the real problems by creating a need for such a high input 1993). In this policy line, the most drastic solution is to close down the entire stockbreeding sector throughout the EU. It goes without saying that neither of these last two options constitutes a realistic scenario; however, they are included to gain an insight into the maximum possible consequences of such policy lines.
Finally, an attempt is made to combine some of the most promising options from all four lines in one 'optimum measure package', aimed at finding a compromise between agricultural and environmental policy goals.
8.2.5 'Putting and end to the expansion of its agricultural territory'
It has been frequently stated by environmental activists as well as scientists that the import of agricultural products such as manioc, soy and others for the purpose of feeding cattle is not only immoral, but is also one of the main causes of the overproduction of manure within the EU and its concurrent environmental problems. In this section, the impacts of an import restriction for the EU as a whole are evaluated. Assumptions are:
Socio-economic factors remain unchanged.
2. The import of fodder crop ktonnes of N) is terminated completely.
Three alternatives have been elaborated. In alternative 1, the loss of fodder materials is compensated by higher fodder crop production within the EU. Without further measures, this would appear to be the most likely development. In alternative 2, the loss is partly compensated by higher crop production within the EU, and partly by cutting crop exports. This also implies a slight change in the choice of crops. In the third alternative, there is no compensation at all, which results in a concurrent shrink of the stockbreeding sector (as it happens, by 15%). In Table 8.6, the impacts of the various alternatives on the economic and environmental indicators are presented. Additional information can be found in Table
Table 8.6 Nitrogen flows in the EU as a Long-term steady-state and percentages.
of terminating fodder situation, in ktonnes If/year
current restricted import
regime alt. 1 alt. 2 alt. 3
Environmental
atm. dep. on non-agr. soils leaching to to N. Sea ocean) Economic crop/grass production agric. efficiency (N) econ. efficiency (N) EC (N) 1285 4502 1503 14444 25.2% 30.4% 94.4% 1315 4560 1514 15795 24.9% 30.1% (+2%) (+1%) (+9%) (-0%) (-0%) 1269 4529 1470 15064 22.8% 28.8% 1206 4113 1388 13797 26.0% 29.3% 101.5%
At the EU level, the import restriction does not appear to make a great difference. Any difference there is seems to be unfavourable, due to the assumption that compensating crop production will take place on EU acreage. This does not mean that on lower scale levels there might not be a change for the better. This measure may work out well in areas with a high concentration of livestock, but in the EU-wide analysis it is impossible to verify such a conclusion.
The various alternatives do not differ much in their results. Only the option of import restriction without any compensation, thus implying a shrink of the stockbreeding sector, has an impact that, however slight, goes in the right direction. The option of decreasing the stockbreeding sector will be treated separately.
8.2.6 'Technology all the way'
A maximization of technical measures ('techmax') is most in line with current policies and agreements. It is the ultimate way of trying to conform to environmental standards without having to give up any economic values. The main aim here is to close the leaks in the economic system or, in other words, prevent emissions. The assumptions that have been made in order to assess the consequences of this policy line are:
Socio-economic factors remain unchanged.
Agricultural output remains on the same level as under the current regime.
3. Technical measures will reduce all emissions as well as industrial and stable to the atmosphere by
4. As much as of the EU's animal manure is assumed to be collected and subjected to centralized manure treatment. In the process, animal manure is assumed to be transformed into an organic fertilizer that can be used with the same efficiency as industrial fertilizer
& Van der Hoek,
5. The organic fertilizer is assumed to be used within the EU, replacing industrial fertilizer to a level in accordance with current output levels. The production of industrial fertilizer is assumed to drop accordingly, keeping import and export at the 1988 level.
6. The other 75% of animal manure is assumed to be applied in such a manner that the efficiency of by crops or grass will increase significantly, and ammonia emissions will drop accordingly.
All industries and all households will be connected to a sewage treatment system; of the influent will take place with an effectiveness of
In Table 8.7 the consequences of these assumptions for EU nitrogen flows are information is available in Table
Further
Table 8.7 Nitrogen in the EU as a of maximized nical reduction Long-term steady-state situation, in ktonnes N/year and
current regime
dep. on non-agr. soils to groundwater
inflow to North Sea ocean)
indicators production agricultural efficiency (N) efficiency (N) EC (N) 1285 4502 1503 14444 25.2% 30.4% 383 3785 298 14444 30.7% 50.7% 94.3% (-70%) (-16%) (-80%) (n.c.) 6%) (+20%) (- 0%)
As was expected, the effects of this technical measure package are in the same direction as those achieved with the scheduled policy measures, but more pronounced. The total inflow to the is significantly diminished, due mainly to a reduction in fertilizer production. This is the result of assumptions 4 and 5 with regard to centralized manure treatment. The economic outflow
has increased compared to the current regime, although not so much as under the proposed policy measures regime. The economic efficiency of nitrogen use, also in agriculture, is much better, and emissions are therefore almost halved. Because of the decrease in fertilizer use, the level of fertilizer production has dropped. On the other hand, a quite substantial secondary or recycling industry has been set up: for centralized manure treatment.
A shifting of problems has occurred, although less so than under the measures' regime, from emissions to air or surface water to in turn leading to a slightly higher secondary emission to the atmosphere and to
For the selected problem flows, the 'techmax' package works out favourably. North Sea anthropogenic inflow at 20% of the current level, much lower than the agreed 50%. Atmospheric deposition on non-agricultural soils drops by Again, this is more than the 50% required overall, but to draw any conclusions with respect to transgression of critical loads the measures must be specified on a more local level. The leaching of nitrates to groundwater decreases by to 84% of the current level. Under the GLOBE II assumptions, nitrate leaching decreased by 15%. Since GLOBE II is not expected to result in sufficient clean-up of the groundwater, this measure package will likewise be insufficient to prevent concentrations rising above the level of 50 as demanded in the Nitrate Directive. Two of the three selected problem flows could be solved more than adequately, as it appears, by stringent technical measures. For the third one, groundwater, other measures seem to be indicated. Since this problem flow originates to 90% from agriculture, these measures must involve major changes in the agricultural sector. In the next sections, this will be elaborated.
8.2.7 'Let's blame it on the fertilizer'
Ultimately, all three problem flows can be traced back to the production and import of fertilizer. An extreme approach to investigating and testing the effectiveness of measures in this direction is to assume complete termination of all industrial fertilizer use. Agriculture would then be totally dependent on animal manure, as it was some hundred years ago, and as it is currently practised under some alternative agricultural regimes. In Table 8.8 the outcome of this measure is presented. The assumptions are:
Socio-economic factors remain unchanged.
2. Import, export, production and use of fertilizer are down to zero.
3. Import of agricultural products for food by the food industry is increased to the level needed to feed the EU population its current amount of nitrogen; no specification is made as to which agricultural products are involved.
Table 8.8 Nitrogen flows in the EU as a result of terminating the use of industrial fertilizer. Long-term steady-state situation, in ktonnes N/year and percentages.
current regime no fertilizer
Environmental
dep. on non-agr. leaching to groundwater
inflow to North Sea ocean)
Economic indicators crop/grass production agricultural efficiency (N) economic efficiency (N) EC (N) 1285 4502 1503 14444 25.2% 30.4% 94.4% 667 1208 1052 1771 23.3% 16.2% 33.2% (-48%) (-73%) (-30%) (-88%) (- 2%) (-14%) (-61%)
Additional information on nitrogen budgets is presented in the overall comparison table, Table 8.11. As can be concluded from Tables 8.4 and 8.7, the nitrogen throughput decreases substantially under this measure: all nitrogen items (especially economic formation) are significantly lower than under the current regime. This measure apparently represents real 'at-source abatement'. As a losses to the environment are also much smaller. However, if we take a look at the problem flows, we see that for two out of three of them this measure works out less satisfactorily than the option with maximum application of technical measures. For the groundwater problem, still unsolved with the approach, this no-fertilizer measure is indeed effective: leaching is reduced by Emissions to the atmosphere are decreased by 34% only, and the remainder is dominated by that are not influenced by measures aimed at agriculture. However, since the outflow of is high compared to that of and measures to reduce ammonia emissions are thus more effective within the EU, the deposition reduction target of 50% is almost reached the same. Inflow to the North Sea is reduced by 30% only. The of the remaining emissions to surface waters is due to sewage treatment effluent.
A striking detail in Table 8.8 is the very small figure for crop/grass production. Through the loss of fertilizer, agricultural output would be reduced to a 19th century level of about a tenth of current output if no compensatory measures were taken. With the 1988 population, this would mean that three-quarters of the (nitrogen in) food products must be imported from outside the EU. The remaining import figure, 4662 ktonnes N, is therefore dominated by food products. In fact, this measure would imply that the EU population becomes largely dependent on non-EU countries for its food supply, and it is therefore contrary to the present CAP goal of EC self-sufficiency. This measure would mean the export of agriculture, with its concurrent environmental problems.
8.2.8 'A Union of
A different but equally draconic solution to the environmental problems related to nitrogen compounds can be formulated on the assumption that the stockbreeding sector is responsible for the problems. The reasoning behind this is that the environmental losses manure and slurry cannot be sufficiently controlled, and will inevitably remain much larger than losses from industrial fertilizer. What would happen, then, if all animal manure and slurry were to disappear and with as a matter of course, all livestock? The results of terminating the livestock production sector are presented in Table 8.9, and additionally in Table The assumption then is that not only the production, but also the consumption of animal products are totally discontinued. This therefore implies not only an agricultural revolution, but also a consumers revolution. The assumptions are:
factors remain unchanged.
All flows with regard to import, production, export and consumption of fodder crops, fodder, grass and animal products are down to zero; the stockbreeding and fodder industry have disappeared.
As explained below, fertilizer use is lowered to the level needed to feed the 1988 EU Population its 1988 amount of nitrogen.
Table 8.9 in the EU a« a result of the entire sector. Long term steady-state situation, in ktonnes N/year and percentages.
current
dep. to
groundwater
inflow to North ocean)
Economic production agricultural efficiency (N) economic efficiency (N) EC (N) 1285 45O2 15O3 14444 25.2% 30.4% 94.4% 536 918 1OS7 3292 76.9% (-58%) (-30%) (-77%) (- 8%) 6%)
An important aspect of terminating livestock production is the increase in agricultural efficiency, which is boosted from 25% to more than In the present situation, in terms of nitrogen more than three-quarters of crop/grass production is intended for while less than 15% of this ends up in food products. Without livestock, maintaining the same harvest level in terms of nitrogen, with all grass replaced by crop, therefore leads to an overproduction of 300%. Maintaining the current rate of fertilizer application would lead, even without the animal manure, to an overproduction of more than 100%. In this measure package, therefore, fertilizer use is adapted to the nitrogen needs of the EU population; it leaves the food supply as well as the export of food products at the 1988 level in terms of nitrogen. The disappearance of livestock production is thus linked to a major reduction in fertilizer use. The stockbreeding sector can therefore indeed be held responsible for a large part of the problem, not so much because of the losses from manure and slurry, but because the intrinsically very inefficient use of nitrogen in this sector makes it necessary to keep up such a high vegetative production level with a concurrent high level of fertilizer use.
The impacts of this measure on the environmental problems are therefore rather similar to those of the no-fertilizer option: a de-intensification of the economic cycle with a concurrent decrease of emissions. Leaching to groundwater decreases even more than under the no-fertilizer regime. Atmospheric deposition is reduced by even more than 50%. The North Sea load decreases by
however.
On the societal side, EC self-sufficiency is guaranteed in this case. Realization of an entirely EU is just as unlikely as the previous scenario, however, and would affect the agricultural sector in many imaginable and unimaginable ways.
8.2.9 'Running with the hare and hunting with the hounds'
Figures 8.5 and 8.6 and Table summarize the effects of the various packages of measures specified above on the environmental and economic indicators.