Certificación del SMA grid guard

This assessment of the Group’s expected earnings position in 2015 is based on the assumption that the economic environment in Ukraine will stabilise in 2015. Otherwise, this assessment largely follows the anticipated macroeconomic and sector trend described above. Actual developments – regarding both the political situation in Ukraine and the global economic trend – may differ substantially from this projection. Moreover, there are signs of possible structural changes in the international currency structure caused by the continuation of expansive monetary policies by central banks in the industrial- ised nations. It is currently impossible to assess with any reliability what effect these would have on the real economy. see Risk and Opportunity Report, page 76 et seq., and Events after the Balance Sheet Date, page 73.

Against this background, HHLA anticipates a slight year-on-year increase in container throughput for 2015 and moderate growth in container transport. This will be accompanied at Group level by a slight rise in revenue in 2015, compared to the previous year. The operating result (EBIT) is expected to be on a par with the prior-year fi gure.

Developments at the Port Logistics subgroup in 2015 are likely to outline the expected relative changes in these key performance fi gures at Group level. Unlike the Port Logistics subgroup, however, the Container segment will be unable to build on the previous year’s EBIT. A moderate decline in the operating result is anticipated for this segment. By contrast, EBIT in the Intermodal segment is expected to rise strongly. In the Real Estate subgroup, both revenue and EBIT are likely to be on a par with the prior-year fi gures

74 Combined Management Report

in 2015, although the proportion of maintenance recognised in profi t and loss is set to rise in 2015. Earnings in the Port Logistics subgroup and at Group level may be burdened by additional currency-related effects, which are reported below EBIT as part of the fi nancial result.

HHLA’s expectations regarding volume and revenue developments for the Group and the Port Logis- tics subgroup are based largely on the following assumptions:

As a result of the addition and start-up of new capacity at the North European ports, container throughput at the Hamburg terminals is likely to grow more slowly than the market as a whole. In connection with this, HHLA continues to expect a high degree of volatil- ity and further pressure with regard to feeder traffi c. The composition of the cargo mix will have a direct impact on the revenue structure. It is only possible to forecast this to a limited extent, however, due in part to the short-term scheduling of shipping companies. Regarding the provision of handling services, it can be assumed that average ship sizes will continue to in- crease. As a consequence, what happens next in the judicial review of the plan approval for the dredging of the river Elbe will be of major signifi cance for the Port of Hamburg and therefore also for HHLA’s terminals in Hamburg. In this assessment, HHLA assumes that the judicial review will uphold the plan approval for the dredging of the river Elbe and that the necessary river dredging work will be completed swiftly. The close dovetailing and optimisation of processes along the vertical transport chain between the seaport and customers’ premises in the European hinterland will also remain a key competitive factor for Hamburg as a logistics hub. HHLA will continue to expand its intermodal traffi c in 2015, whereby a normalisation of the volume trend is expected.

As a result of market share gains, it is anticipated that capacity utilisation at the container terminal in Ukraine will improve.

The expected trend in volumes and revenue described here is mainly based on the following key measures to bring about the anticipated earnings development: Despite the increasing handling demands caused by the trend in ship sizes, the company aims to maintain its high productivity in container handling. The focus here will remain on improving the operating perform- ance of the Container Terminal Burchardkai. Further investments will be made in proprietary rolling stock

and facilities to increase value added in intermodal transport. The company intends to achieve a further improvement in the earnings position of the Polzug Group.

Financial Position

HHLA’s investment activities can be scaled in line with demand. Due to the continuing trend in ship sizes, HHLA reserves the right to decide on investment activities which are not prompted purely by volume developments. Capital expenditure at Group level in 2015 is currently expected to be in the region of € 170 million, almost all of which is allocated for the Port Logistics subgroup. Driven largely by the trend in ship sizes, key projects relate to the procurement of container gantry cranes and yard cranes for the container terminals in Hamburg, the acquisition of additional locomotives for Metrans, and the expansion of terminal capacities in the hinterland.

In the course of the planned investment activities, it is expected that non-current assets in the form of property, plant and equipment will increase. However, it is possible that a devaluation of the Ukrainian cur- rency will lead to a reduction in the carrying amounts of assets held in this country. Should such exchange rate-related adjustments to property, plant and equip- ment become necessary, these would reduce equity but not affect profi t or loss. In addition to the net profi t generated for the year, equity will also be affected by interest-dependent changes in actuarial gains/losses within pension provisions. HHLA aims to uphold its earnings-orientated dividend policy of distributing between 50 and 70 % of the net profi t for the year after minority interests as dividends.

In order to achieve this target and enable further value- oriented growth, maintaining fi nancial stability is the company’s top priority. Based on the available liquidity reserves and the positive cash fl ows generated by ex- pected earnings, HHLA antici pate that it will continue to have suffi cient fi nancial funds in future, which can be supplemented by borrowing where necessary.

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Combined Management Report