CINE Y SIGLO XX, UNA HISTORIA DE LAS MENTALIDADES

This Section restates the research problem and objective from a systems perspective. Now is a suitable point because the global and local issues have been brought out and this enables us to reformulate the problem now that all the sub systems and emergent behaviours and drivers are known. The introduction of engineering systems has provided a framework into which the problem can be meaningfully stated.

It is widely accepted that the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere is due to human activity. Although the climate mechanism is complex, it is generally accepted that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases will lead to climate change, the effects of which are expected to be severe.

Chapter 1 showed that the main cause of global emissions is power generation which is a result of energy demand. Chapter 1 also showed that over the coming years, global energy demand will increase significantly, primarily due to the energy demand from developing countries such as China. Moreover, the most abundant fuel in China and India is coal, which has the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced of any fossil fuel.

The goal of global energy policy is to meet energy demand (in an economically efficient manner) while meeting global emissions targets. This is a significant challenge given: i). The scale of the problem; ii).

The high cost and immaturity of low-carbon generation technology. The scale of the problem has been illustrated by using wedges to break the problem into manageable segments with coal CCS highlighted as one potential enabling technology.

Coal with CCS could provide an opportunity for non-OECD countries to use indigenous natural coal resources while emitting little CO2. However, the development and deployment of CCS technology is likely to be expensive, and non-OECD countries are unlikely to sacrifice economic growth for low carbon generation. Therefore it seems unlikely that countries such as China will develop CCS technology alone.

This implies that there is a need for OECD countries to develop and deploy CCS technology before non-OECD countries – the cost associated with developing CCS could be regained by selling expertise in CCS technology. From a global perspective, it is also necessary that CCS can be retrofitted to existing or under construction plant in non OECD countries which already account for globally significant levels of CO2

emissions (Davison, 2007).

The emergent properties of the UK generation system can be split into the following categories:

economics, environment and energy security. The current objective of the generation mix is to meet constraints in all of these categories in the most efficient (least cost) manner.

The UK requires significant new generation capacity to meet demand and compensate for plant closures.

In order to meet government targets, at least some of the new build will be renewable energy, but the amount expected to be deployed will not be enough to cover the generation gap. Nuclear power has the potential to make a significant contribution, but the long planning times, issues with waste and decommissioning and public opinion mean that market penetration by 2015 is unlikely. There appears to be a significant gap to be filled, and if this is not to be taken by natural gas then it could be by coal with CCS. As an OECD country, the UK has a role in developing low-carbon technologies, both from a commercial point of view (due to the size of the potential global market) and an environmental perspective. In addition, coal with CCS will bring benefits in terms of energy security (moving away from dependency on the Middle East). However, the UK generation system is market based, and not centrally planned. Therefore the existing system is based on minimising cost rather than providing energy security or satisfying environmental constraints. For coal with CCS to be deployed commercially, the technology must prove both technically feasible and economically viable. Otherwise, the government must legislate for coal with CCS to make up a fixed proportion of the UK generation systems which, at present, seems unlikely.

3.5.1 Chapter conclusion

The case for deployment of coal with CCS plant has been made in Chapters 1 and 2, in terms of global need and UK need. The remaining question to be answered is:

Is Coal with CCS technically and economically viable?

Technology Assessment

Cost Assessment

Gas Model (derivative model)

Real Options Analysis

and First Hitting Time Analysis

Outputs

Base Parameter Evaluation Market Evaluation under uncertainty

Decision Analysis

Figure 3-6: Research methodology

Chapter 3 has set out the framework in which this analysis will take place and in particular has outlined the systems hierarchy that is necessary to conduct the analysis in a logical manner. Important systems characteristics have been defined against which the alternative CCS plant technologies will be measured.

The goal of Chapter 4 is to assess the technical viability of the CCS system and in particular to rank the alternative coal plants in order to determine the most viable plant to be used in Chapters 5 and 6, which analyses the system from an economic viewpoint.

4 System technology assessment and evaluation

Concern over carbon emissions is forcing governments and companies to consider energy efficient processes and low carbon generation. For fossil fuel power generation, consideration must be given to new combustion technologies together with carbon capture and storage. To date a number of first generation capture technologies have been developed; however, key performance parameters are distributed widely throughout the literature, making a comprehensive technical assessment difficult.

Furthermore, a plethora of second-generation capture technologies are being researched. These novel capture technologies are at different stages of development and there is a clear need to identify and categorise them against a common benchmark.

The objective of Chapter 4 is to:

Evaluate the entire carbon capture and storage chain for technical feasibility;

Identify the leading carbon capture technology given current and future performance potential.

The three types of coal-fired plant considered in this Chapter are: Oxyfuel, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and pulverised-coal combustion (PC).

This Chapter applies a systematic framework to identify the most promising capture technology. The analysis framework is based on the concept of system hierarchy. Section 4.2 presents an examination and evaluation of base plant and related sub processes; Section 4.3 presents an examination and evaluation of the CO2 capture process by plant, transport process and storage process; and Section 4.4 an examination and evaluation of potential novel capture processes for each plant type. Section 4.5 brings the analysis of the previous Sections together to perform a technology assessment that uses technology readiness levels, system readiness levels, and SWOT analysis to identify the leading option for coal CCS given current and future performance potential.