Colección de métodos y herramientas de intercambio

Outcome 4.1: Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies mainstreamed into national policies in at least 20 countries, in the development plans of at least five economic areas (e.g. ECOWAS, EAC, South Asia) covering each of the target regions, and in the key global processes related to food security and climate change

Outcome 4.2 Improved frameworks, databases and methods for planning responses to climate change used by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies

Outcome 4.3 New knowledge on how alternative policy and program options impact agriculture and food security under climate change incorporated into strategy development by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies

Achievement of some of these outcomes will require close collaboration with other CRPs, especially in relation to Outcomes 1.1, 2.1 and 3.3, where there will be considerable interaction with other CRPs.⁹ However, given that CRP7 will be collaborating with numerous Centers/CRPs in different regions, we believe that the outcomes can be achieved even if a few of the other CRPs fail to deliver on their outputs in specific locations. In addition, each of these outcomes has a considerable amount of research inputs from CRP7 alone, so even in the face of failure of other CRPs we will be able to deliver on the bulk of the target. As illustrated in Figure 3 achieving the impacts is not dependent on a specific outcome, but rather on a portfolio of outcomes. Having one outcome that is somewhat weaker than others will not jeopardise the entire effort.

Figure 3. Generic impact pathway for CRP7 showing how annual Milestones build up to five-year Outputs and in turn lead to long-term Outcomes and Impacts (showing Milestones and Outputs for one of the twelve Outcomes). The overview of the Goals and Outcomes is shown in Table 1; the intermediate performance indicators in Table 4; the structure of Objectives/Outcomes/Outputs for each Theme in Tables 11, 13, 15 and 17; and the full details of the annual Milestones in Annex 1.

For specific impact pathways, see Figures 4 and 9-14.

CRP7 will work on outputs that are directly relevant to the outcomes listed in Table 1 and in the defined impact pathways. The outputs will, inter alia: improve the effectiveness of research undertaken in other CRPs so that they incorporate the effects of climate change; identify climate risk adjustment strategies to reduce variability in production; undertake analysis of the enabling and disabling policy and institutional environment which influences how productivity gains result in enhanced food and livelihood security, and critically, for whom; and develop mechanisms by which small farmers can participate in carbon markets.

9 See section on “Roles of CGIAR centers and integration with other CRPs” for a description on collaboration and cofinancing. Also see Table 8 to show budget allocations for cofinancing.

In order to reach the desired impacts, at a scale well beyond the sites where field trials and surveys will be undertaken, CRP7 will partner with some of the major international multi-lateral and non-governmental agencies, while at the same time being grounded in work with national agricultural, natural resource, environmental and meteorological agencies, the private sector and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). By influencing global and regional policy processes, CRP7 and its partners will also be able to scale up impact. Considerable attention will be given to ensuring coherence across the scales of operation (Cash et al., 2006). Strengthening partnership platforms and developing reflexive approaches, where researchers keep returning to stakeholders to jointly develop means of adapting, learning and responding to feedback, will be built into the program’s structures and functions. Exploration of innovative use of ICTs (e.g. climate information and community feedback via mobile phones and crowdsourcing methodologies) will address this challenge.

The technologies, practices and policies that are developed to counter climate change and climate risk will have direct effects (e.g., through agricultural productivity increases and indirect effects (e.g., increased gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates brought about by agricultural development). We estimate for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that there are about 260 million poor in the rural sector who are likely beneficiaries for direct effects, and about 150 million urban poor and 150 million rural poor (poorest of the poor) who are likely beneficiaries for indirect effects (Annex 2). Similar kinds of data and analyses are not available for other parts of the globe, but it can be seen that the number of potential beneficiaries runs into hundreds of millions (within the first five years of CRP7, one of the research outputs is a set of sophisticated ex ante assessment tools to evaluate the likely impacts of different research and development approaches, building on previous integrated assessment work at many different institutions and integrating different components in novel ways).

Modest successes in reducing GHG emissions growth, e.g. 10% reductions below “business-as-usual”

scenarios, in concert with similar levels of improvement in the substitution of fossil fuels by biomass energy, can enhance global climate mitigation by agriculture for the period 2015–2020 by about 1000 Mt CO2-eq. (considering all gases) below the “business-as-usual” scenario¹⁰. Intensifying agriculture in existing cultivated and grazed areas while limiting the expansion of extensive production practices into carbon-rich landscapes (e.g. forests in West Africa and grasslands with high soil carbon in the Andes) will be a major route to reducing emissions. If deforestation through agricultural expansion can be reduced by 10% for the period 2015–2020 through agricultural development pathways that involve intensification, a further 500 Mt CO2-eq. (approx) can be stored. It is also assumed that mitigation initiatives by smallholder farmers will be rewarded, with incomes being supplemented by up to US$50 per household per annum in some cases.

Assuring poverty reduction under climate change is a high-level goal of the CGIAR and CRP7. It will mean decreasing the vulnerability and improving the adaptation and adaptability of different groups of the poor to improve their well-being. Given anticipated food supply shortfalls, poverty reduction also includes special attention to food security and food delivery systems. Therefore, in addition to standard livelihood indicators, poverty reduction under climate change will require new concepts and indicators. Poverty needs to be measured across multiple dimensions, including social, political, economic, and natural resource assets, and at multiple levels, including intra-household, household, community and region. Poverty is relative in different contexts and times. Reducing poverty requires the involvement (agency) of poor and marginalized people in decision-making and governance. Poverty is dynamic and influenced by power relations and socioeconomic conditions that can interact with climate-related shocks, such as political instability and the occurrence of natural disasters. There is therefore a need to understand and monitor poverty and poverty reduction over time, with the involvement of government and other development intermediary stakeholders.

10 For original figures, see: Smith et al. (2008).

Strategic Goals

The overall Goal of CRP7 is to promote a food-secure world through the provision of science-based efforts that support sustainable agriculture and enhance livelihoods while adapting to climate change and conserving natural resources and environmental services. Working with national and regional partners, promising adaptation options will be identified and evaluated, and through modeling approaches their efficacy in adapting agricultural systems will be quantified and used to provide detailed adaptation pathways at the national, regional and global levels.

CRP7 will address this goal by generating the knowledge base and toolsets needed to empower farmers, policy makers, researchers and civil society to manage agricultural and food systems successfully so as to strengthen food security, enhance rural livelihoods and improve environmental health in the context of the challenges arising from current climate variability and progressive climate change.

The Sub-goals of CRP7 are:

1. To identify and test pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for food systems, adaptive capacity and rural livelihoods.

2. To provide diagnosis and analysis that will ensure the inclusion of agriculture in climate change policies, and the inclusion of climate issues in agricultural policies, from the sub-national to the global level in a way that brings benefits to the rural poor.

Specific 3-year performance indicators have been defined for these Sub-goals, so that they can form the basis of an evaluation in Year 5; part of the process towards moving between the 5-year Phase 1 and Phase 2 (see Annex 1 for the logframe).

The proposed program Program design

CRP7 is designed to help deliver impacts at global, regional and national levels cost-effectively, with a strong emphasis on capacity enhancement, inclusiveness – particularly of women and other marginalized groups – and on pragmatic recognition and evaluation of trade-offs among food security, poverty alleviation and environmental health objectives.

The global Themes

CRP7 is structured around four closely inter-linked global Themes (Figure 1). Three of these involve field-level work in benchmark sites in the target regions. These so-called “place-based” Themes will work together to identify and test (through adaptive research) technologies, practices and policies, and will enhance capacity to reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to a variable and changing climate:

• Theme 1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

• Theme 2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

• Theme 3: Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Themes 1 and 2 identify and assess adaptation pathways at different time-scales. Theme 1 tackles decadal time periods (mostly 2020 to 2050), while Theme 2 addresses current risks associated with climate variability. In the shorter term, since rain-fed farmers, pastoralists and coastal fishers are already vulnerable to current climate shocks, it is essential to help them build resilience through better information and strategies to deal with current climate-induced risk. Not only will greater resilience allow farmers and fishers a wider range of adaptation options in the future, but perhaps more important is the assumption that variation will be even more extreme under climate change. Collectively, these three Themes will demonstrate and assess the feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability of integrated strategies for advancing food security, rural livelihoods and environmental goals in the face of a changing climate; will identify and prioritize institutional and policy options for overcoming obstacles to implementing these strategies at the scale of the development challenge; and will ensure that appropriate practices and technologies get into the hands of farmers. Silos among the three Themes will be avoided through joint benchmark sites, joint field personnel, the coordinating functions of the Regional Facilitators and regular inter-Theme meetings.

Theme 4 – Integration for Decision Making – provides an analytical and diagnostic framework for the whole of CRP7. It also ensures effective engagement of rural communities and institutional and policy stakeholders, and grounds CRP7 in the policy context. CRP7 recognizes that many of the challenges poor communities are dealing with involve institutional, policy and infrastructural constraints and not just technical issues. Theme 4 will ensure that principles for linking knowledge with action for sustainable poverty reduction (Kristjanson et al., 2009) are applied and local innovation capacity is strengthened. In doing vulnerability assessments and building integrative ex ante assessment tools, this Theme helps set the agenda for the place-based Themes, and as such will also provide support to other CRPs. The analytical and diagnostic framework of Theme 4 will allow information at multiple scales to be brought to bear on the key research questions addressed in CRP7, such as the downscaling of climate and global socio-economic processes to the local level and the upscaling of case-study results to broader, regional and cross-regional domains. Theme 4 also provides the framework and tools for baseline diagnoses and ongoing monitoring and evaluation. The policy environment increasingly influences the opportunities and constraints affecting local and national-scale actions that can be taken in response to a changing climate, thus boundary spanning strategies for linking the science to policy at various levels will be critical. Understanding vulnerability, jointly identifying appropriate interventions and assessing their effectiveness with partners,

and leaving a sustained legacy of improved decision-making and improved information flows, all depend critically on effective modes of engagement with a range of stakeholders. Theme 4 will interact with the three “place-based” Themes through regular inter-Theme meetings, cross-fertilization of data and modeling outputs, generation of hypotheses for fieldwork and macro analyses, and through participation in activities in the place-based themes that have a strong stakeholder engagement element. Theme 4 activities and products will be both demand and supply-driven; demand-driven through the needs identified by the place-based Themes and other CRPs, and supply driven by the early recognition of challenges that comes with sophisticated forward-looking analyses that are supported by novel data collection and fusion.

Beneficiaries

The three dimensions in which CRP7 seeks impact correspond to different groups of ultimate beneficiaries.

For impact on rural livelihoods, the ultimate beneficiaries are resource-poor farmers and other members of the rural and peri-urban poor associated with the agricultural sector, including pastoralists, fishers, sawyers, users of wild resources, landless agricultural labourers, local traders, input suppliers and processors (i.e. people found throughout the value chain, from input supply, to production, to processing, to trading, to selling to the ultimate consumers). These groups will benefit through reduced vulnerabilities, raised adaptive capacity and sustained incomes. For impact on food security, CRP7 seeks to help not only the rural poor but also the urban poor that number among the world’s one billion undernourished. For impact on environmental health and carbon storage, there will be both local beneficiaries and a global public goods benefit.

CRP7 will reach its ultimate beneficiaries through different sets of carefully selected proximate beneficiaries for each Theme and Objective.¹¹ To demonstrate the diversity with a few examples, proximate beneficiaries will include public, private and civil society sectors, and will range from global bodies and processes such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the World Food Program and the Voluntary Carbon Standard through to organizations and change makers at national and local levels, such as farmers’ groups, research stations, insurance companies and government departments. One of the lessons from past CG research has been that stronger links to the private sector are key to impact, yet fraught with challenges – thus a key strategy here will be to work closely with industry platforms, where many private sector companies have already come together to address global food security concerns.

Examples from different industries and different levels of platforms with which CRP7 will work include: the Sustainable Agriculture Initiative (SAI); Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI);

ISEAL Alliance (alliance of all major agri-certification schemes/labels).

The regional approach

Much of the place-based research will be undertaken at several spatial levels within so-called “target regions”, and will share common research sites and infrastructure where appropriate. CRP7 activities will be fully integrated with activities of CRP1 (Integrated agricultural systems for the poor and vulnerable) in shared target regions. While there are many regions in the developing world that warrant research investment, CRP7 will not overstretch itself. It will initiate work in three target regions in 2011, add two regions in 2012, and a further three regions in 2013. The three initial focus regions are eastern Africa, West Africa and the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Criteria for selecting the initial focus regions were:

• Poverty and vulnerability: high degree of vulnerability to climate, large poor and vulnerable populations, drivers of vulnerability that extend beyond the focus region;

• Complementary set of social, cultural and institutional contexts;

11 For each of the four Themes there are three Objectives. These are detailed in the description of the CRP7 portfolio.

• Complementary climatic contexts, with different temporal and spatial scales of climate variability and degrees of predictability;

• Significant but contrasting climate-related problems and opportunities for intervention;

• Security, governance and institutional capacity that favor the likelihood of scaling-out results.

A range of regional partners have been involved in the selection of field sites and countries within target regions.¹²

By early 2011 the initial vulnerability studies undertaken by Theme 4 (Objective 1) ¹³ will be complete, and will be used to help identify the regions to be initiated in 2012 and 2013¹⁴. The stakeholder meeting in May (2010) identified the key criteria to be used in making the selection of future regions.¹⁵ Work will not be conducted exclusively in target regions, as a series of global comparative analyses are planned within Themes, where site selection has been guided by thematic and impact considerations. In the regions, while most field work will be conducted at the same site, some specific activities, such as mitigation studies, may use other sites that are better suited for the objectives.

Data availability and quality will not be equal in all regions and this will limit, for example, the capacity of CRP7 to design and run models at the regional or site level where data are poor. The overlap of themes and regions will help to provide tools with wide geographic applicability. Two mechanisms in particular will be used in CRP7 to effect transitions of scale. First, the regional scenarios activities will provide an integrating framework. Second, careful characterisation work will also provide the basis for judicious extrapolation of site- and model-based research outputs to broader domains, where this is possible.

The regional approach will be used to ensure complementarity of thematic research, will be the basis of a strong network of partners implementing the work, and the regional teams will spearhead achievement of outcomes and impacts at national and regional levels. In this regard, integrated impact pathways have been developed for national and regional levels, as illustrated in Figure 4¹⁶.

Achieving coherence among Themes

The agricultural sector is where the adaptation and mitigation agendas are most closely interconnected (Global Donor Platform, 2009). In consequence, the place-based work has to be planned and implemented in a coordinated manner, especially as farmers have to grapple with both adaptation and mitigation issues simultaneously (Figure 5). Theme 3 will have a specific focus on the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation strategies (Objective 3.1). Themes 1 and 2 also have to be implemented in a coordinated manner, as current farmer strategies, coping mechanisms and indigenous knowledge give important insights on how to tackle future climate change. Finally, all the place-based Themes will be tied closely to Theme 4, to ensure the tools developed and policy analyses conducted are demand-driven and guide the place-based Themes. To achieve this coherence, mechanisms include: a team approach to planning and implementation, a common conceptual framework, joint fieldwork at shared benchmark sites, sharing of data and results, cross-generation of hypotheses, integrated impact pathways at national and regional levels, and specific roles for Regional Facilitators (see “management systems”) in bridging Themes at the site, national and regional levels.

12 Through scoping studies and regional consultations 4-7 sites have been selected in each region in the following countries: Eastern Africa – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania; West Africa: Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Senegal;

IGP: Bangladesh, India, Nepal.

13 See “Description of Program Portfolio"

14 Several candidate regions have been put forward by stakeholders: Amazonia, Central America, Southern Africa, South-East Asia, Pacific, arid zones

15 The workshop report is available at ccafs.cgiar.org/content/planning-workshop-report

15 The workshop report is available at ccafs.cgiar.org/content/planning-workshop-report