Comparación entre de los factores resaltados por las empresas y los

The appearance of snow and its stay on ground depends on general circulation of the atmosphere (weather types), and the meteorological parameters characteristic for snow season, primarily temperature, as well as the exposition of the location and the characteristics of the ground.

During winter months (December, January and February) the potential skiing district of the Velebit Mountain, western Dinaric Alps, situated along the eastern Adriatic coast, has on average 69 days with snow cover ≥ 30 cm, that are required for alpine skiing and snowboarding. The average refers to the period 1961-1990, which is the last World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standard period for climate analysis.

Available data for the second half of the 20th century show large inter-annual variability, especially pronounced since mid eighties. From poor snow winter 1953/1954 till winter 1984/1985 there were more ski reliable snow days (moving average curve above the average 1961-1990) than in ninetiens when it fluctuates under the climatological mean due mainly to the two winters without snow (1989/1990 and 1990/1991).

Table 2: Trends of average (T), mean maximum (Tmax), mean minimum air temperature (Tmin) and diurnal

temperature range (DTR) - ºC/10 years, precipitation (R) - mm/10 years, precipitation days (nRD)– days/10years,

cloudiness (N) - tenth/10 years and air pressure (p) - hPa/10 years for Zavižan, period 1954-2001 (air pressure 1956-2001). Shading denotes trends significant at α=0.05 level

Seasons T Tmaks Tmin DTR R nRD N p

Spring 0.23 0.31 0.20 0.12 -4.6 -0.16 -0.10 0.25 Summer 0.21 0.33 0.18 0.16 -12.4 -0.09 -0.10 0.07 Autumn 0.02 0.08 -0.02 0.10 49.2 -0.05 -0.01 -0.04 Winter 0.20 0.27 0.17 0.10 21.1 -4.0 -0.21 0.92 Annual 0.18 0.26 0.14 0.12 58.5 -6.8 -0.10 0.34

More frequent lack of snow winters at the end of eighties and in nineties are accompanied by more rapid increase in temperature. This points at the future potential significant changes in snow regime due to the projections for highest expected changes in temperature in Croatian highland: winter temperature increase would be ranged between 0.8 and 1.0°C by 2030, between 1.6 and 1.8°C by 2050 and between 4.2 and 4.9°C by 2100. These results have been obtained according to the climate change scenarios for Croatia. They have been made on the basis of IPCC alternative scenarios (1992a-1992f), assuming the present CO2 concentration increase policy (“business as usual”) as well as regional circulation scenario for the Mediterranean developed at East Anglia University. Two projections of global social and economic growth have been chosen: 1992a and 1992e. Scenario 1992a is a scenario on the lower limit of the expected changes, while scenario 1992e is on the upper limit. In both cases, the parameters of these projections were derived applying the hypothesis of cooling effect of aerosols. Global and regional projections have been examined and compared with long-term data series for three different climate regions in Croatia. The estimates have been made for temperature, precipitation amounts and sea level rise for Croatian lowland, mountainous region and coastland for three time horizons 2030, 2050 and 2100.

The observed trend of 1°C during last fifty years over the Velebit Mountain is the same one as the projected change for the first horizon (2030). Simultaneously, trend of number of days with snow cover ≥ 30 cm showed an increase of 1 day in 50 years, what would be not relevant for ski season. The projections of temperature increase, which are predicted to be five times higher by the end of

the 21st century, could have more consequence on snow regime depending further on precipitation changes. The scenarios of precipitation change by season's show an increase between 6% to 10% in mountainous parts of Croatia, having an opposite influence on snow cover than temperature.

So, the magnitude of changes in snow parameters remains uncertain, especially because of high inter-annual variability of snow parameters as a result not only of temperature changes but also precipitation changes and frequency of weather types.

Further research would demand analysis of snow cover relevant not only for alpine skiing at higher altitudes (snow cover ≥ 30 cm), but also those (snow cover ≥ 10 cm) necessary for development of winter skiing tourism (cross-country skiing or snow mobiling) at lower altitudes. Its correlation to temperature and precipitation in relation to altitude for a whole winter ski season and for particular school holiday weeks would enable further estimates of snow changes that should be incorporated in tourism plans.

Application of IPCC scenarios and regional models brings further uncertainties, because they refer to mean temperatures, not distinguishing seasons, and there are considerations that warming is higher in the northern hemisphere and during winter.

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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TOURISTS'