Many of the variables for jump racing are similar to that of flat racing but I will take you through them one by one as there are subtle differences.
PRIMARY VARIABLES
GOING
The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm. The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference.
What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in novice races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going.
This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.
BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. BONUS TIP 2 – Watch out for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time on soft ground. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and the sticky soft ground will test the horse's stamina.
DISTANCE
Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. In jump racing you don't get sprints but the races still vary in distance. Some horses are better at the medium length races of 2 miles while others prefer longer distances (3 miles+) that are a real test of stamina.
up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the medium distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned.
Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you might have a horse with excellent form over 2 miles but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 20 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 20 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity.
BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 4 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay.
BONUS TIP 2 – Distance is a particular warning for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and jump races are usually longer than flat races so the horses' stamina will be severely tested.
CLASS
As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before.
What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens.
As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available.
JUMP CLASS SYSTEM Cls 1 Cls 2 Cls 3 Cls 4 Cls 5 Cls 6 Grade 1
Grade 2 incl limited hcps Grade 3 open hcps Listed Open hcps 0-140+ 0-115/135 0-100/115 0-85/95 HuntCh & NHF Chase £100k £50k £50k £25k £23k £20k £10k £5.5-10k £3.5-5.5k £1.6 – 3.5k NovChs £50k £32k £20k Hurdle £75k £40k £45k £22k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k NovHur £40k £28k £18k NHFlat £25k £20k £15k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k £2.5-3.2k
The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horses which have had bad results in a certain class.
FIRST TIME HURDLER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying. Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for the first time.
Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to it's first hurdle race. Even if the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like a hurdles race before.
Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections. Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically gets favouritism.
BONUS TIP – First time hurdlers will be competing in novice hurdle events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.
FIRST TIME CHASER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first chase then again that is a great opportunity for laying. Any horse that chases will have been a hurdler at some point.
But the fences in a steeplechase are a lot bigger than hurdles and even if a horse is a great hurdler it may not make a great chaser.
If we see a short favourite who has never chased before have ourselves a laying opportunity.
BONUS TIP – First time chasers will be competing in novice chase events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to chasing. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.
WEIGHT
The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. Over jumps this factor is important in non-handicaps as well.
Once a horse wins a novice event it is allowed to compete in other novice races for the rest of the season. However it must carry a weight penalty. This gives up lots of laying opportunities. Often a horse who has one a novice event will be favourite for the next race due to it's form. However many punters do not take into account the extra weight it is carrying and blindly back it. Often you will see these favourites losing their next race.
As with flat racing, weight is very important in handicaps. We need to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out.
TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE
This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a favourite rather than being a factor in our favour.
This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should not lay.
Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest to the stable.
When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions. Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance.
I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact
sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.
CHAPTER 18: STEP 2 – EVALUATING THE
OPPOSITION
After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite.
To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite.
Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form.
We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by.
One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite. The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events.
Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite.
The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.