PH.18.3 Suben y bajan escaleras con cautela
L.48.2 Comprenden oraciones cada vez más complejas que incluyen dos o tres conceptos (por ejemplo: “Coloca el papel azul debajo de la caja”)
Results of the hedonic regressions for Medellín are reported in table 5.2, which shows that house rents increase with the number of rooms and bathrooms in the house, and with access to fixed phone lines, piped gas, piped water, and Internet or satellite television. Values also increase if the housing unit is an apartment rather than a house, if there is a garage, and if floors and walls are made of good materials. Finally, rent values increase with socioeconomic stratum.
Looking at the amenities included in the regressions, we see that rents increase with variables at the census sector level, such as average educa- tion and per capita number of food supply places. Rent values decrease if the house is located in a place subject to environmental risks (flooding, landslides, and so forth). Distance to a subway or bus rapid-transit sta- tion is negatively related to house price, meaning that proximity implies a premium to house values.17 House rents also increase with the distance to intermunicipal roads, the distance to public utilities and to places of cultural value.
The models estimated for Medellín are the same as those for Bogotá to quantify the importance of each of our control variables. As shown in table 5.2, changes in the socioeconomic strata are the ones that would affect the most house rents. Increasing the shares of stratum-3, -4, -5, and -6 houses in a specific census sector by 1.00 SD from the current levels would imply increases of 0.16, 0.19, 0.23, and 0.19 SD, respectively, in the average rent
129
Table 5.2 Hedonic Regressions for Medellín, 2006
Variable
Rent paid + rent estimateda Rent paidb
Coefficient t beta Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value
(Col$) Coefficient t beta
Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value (Col$) Number of rooms 0.0674 22.46 0.1085 10 41 97,906 0.0717 14.74 0.1201 8.80 37 88,185 Number of bathrooms 0.0944 12.62 0.0781 14 20 46,942 0.1133 11.48 0.0838 14 20 47,724
House with fixed telephone line 0.1238 7.34 0.0242 18 17 40,751 0.1072 4.37 0.0249 13 13 29,883 House with piped gas service 0.0789 7.73 0.0376 11 3.51 8,286 0.0535 3.91 0.0246 6.57 2.01 4,762 Household cooks with piped gas –0.0276 –3.49 –0.0141 –4.01 –1.62 –3,834 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
House with LPG service 0.0315 3.35 0.0160 4.57 1.78 4,197 0.0234 2.13 0.0132 2.87 1.12 2,637
House with Internet service 0.0719 7.24 0.0295 10 2.04 4,824 0.0634 4.22 0.0255 7.78 1.52 3,602 House with satellite
television service 0.0447 5.94 0.0229 6.48 3.69 8,712 0.0383 3.32 0.0216 4.70 2.67 6,322
House –0.0189 –2.51 –0.0098 –2.74 –1.37 –3,235 –0.0287 –2.73 –0.0162 –3.52 –1.76 –4,151
House with garage 0.1082 7.93 0.0433 16 2.86 6,764 0.1408 7.59 0.0532 17 3.15 7,455
High-quality floor material 0.1469 16.43 0.0633 21 16 38,997 0.1677 13.30 0.0786 21 16 37,702
High-quality wall material 0.1022 2.67 0.0111 15 15 34,531 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
House with potable water service 0.3633 1.90 0.0056 53 53 124,140 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Kitchen is an additional room 0.1564 5.51 0.0213 23 22 52,598 0.1657 3.83 0.0270 20 20 47,177 Stratum 2 0.1046 5.93 0.0521 15 5.37 12,705 0.0751 3.47 0.0411 9.22 3.27 7,719 Stratum 3 0.3340 13.67 0.1618 48 15 36,612 0.2821 9.48 0.1523 35 11 26,180 Stratum 4 0.5760 19.28 0.1870 84 9.34 22,071 0.4847 13.21 0.1713 60 6.65 15,728 Stratum 5 0.7762 20.65 0.2305 113 10 23,765 0.6529 14.03 0.1915 80 7.16 16,928 Stratum 6 1.0358 19.63 0.1941 150 5.17 12,226 0.9056 12.80 0.1277 111 3.83 9,052
House in area vulnerable to
natural disasters –0.0613 –3.09 –0.0142 –8.89 –0.48 –1,144 –0.0973 –2.38 –0.0226 –11.95 –0.65 –1,539
Class of soil is urban n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5543 5.82 0.0301 68.07 67.47 159,501
Class of soil is rural n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4971 4.65 0.0226 61.04 0.38 894
Class of soil is residential –0.0223 –2.06 –0.0091 –3.23 –2.60 –6,141 –0.0269 –1.94 –0.0122 –3.30 –2.65 –6,275 Distance to nearest
cultural placec 0.00003 2.55 0.0159 0.005 3.32 7,837 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Distance to nearest place of
public administration –0.00002 –1.45 –0.0120 –0.003 –3.21 –7,583 –0.00005 –3.64 –0.0322 –0.006 –6.99 –16,532
Table 5.2 Hedonic Regressions for Medellín, 2006 (continued)
Variable
Rent paid + rent estimateda Rent paidb
Coefficient t beta Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value
(Col$) Coefficient t beta
Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value (Col$)
131
(continued)
Distance to nearest subway or
Metro-Plus station –0.0001 –6.46 –0.0491 –0.008 –10 –23,845 0.0000 –4.86 –0.0467 –0.006 –7.66 –18,112 Distance to nearest place of
refuge for children
and the elderly –0.00005 –5.23 –0.0443 –0.007 –8.22 –19,424 –0.00007 –6.21 –0.0701 –0.009 –10.42 –24,623 Distance to nearest marketplace 0.00002 4.17 0.0349 0.004 9.04 21,378 0.00002 2.13 0.0260 0.002 5.45 12,879 Distance to nearest place of
recreation or sports n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0000 –1.87 –0.0145 –0.003 –2.72 –6,435
Distance to nearest church/worship
place n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. –0.0001 –1.60 –0.0094 –0.007 –2.99 –4,716
Distance to nearest place of
vigilance –0.00003 –2.14 –0.0154 –0.005 –3.60 –8,499 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Distance to nearest place related to
utility services 0.0001 3.61 0.0199 0.008 5.04 11,922 0.00003 2.51 0.0142 0.004 2.83 6,679
Distance to nearest place of help in
case of disaster 0.00002 2.69 0.0306 0.003 6.80 16,080 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Distance to nearest river or stream –0.00002 –1.97 –0.0261 –0.003 –6.45 –15,243 –0.00002 –1.89 –0.0226 –0.002 –4.45 –10,523 Distance to nearest hill n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.00002 2.72 0.0221 0.003 5.12 12,115 Distance to nearest place identified
Distance to nearest road connecting the city to
neighboring cities 0.00001 2.03 0.0138 0.001 4.18 9,873 0.00001 1.97 0.0169 0.001 4.31 10,184 Distance to nearest university –0.00003 –4.49 –0.0276 –0.005 –7.47 –17,670 –0.00004 –4.88 –0.0343 –0.005 –7.25 –17,142 Number of social welfare places
per 1,000 population n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. –0.1619 –2.11 –0.0156 –20 –0.83 –1,954
Number of cultural places
per 1,000 population 0.0987 1.64 0.0094 14 0.48 1,132 0.1795 2.97 0.0208 22 0.74 1,744
Number of places of public administration per 1,000
population –0.0016 –0.18 –0.0005 –0.23 0.00 –7 0.0132 1.31 0.0077 1.62 0.02 52
Number of subway or Metro-Plus
stations per 1,000 population n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. –0.0559 –1.15 –0.0090 –6.87 –0.14 –339 Number of marketplaces per 1,000
population 0.3535 2.33 0.0094 51 0.12 288 0.2948 2.16 0.0101 36 0.09 203
Table 5.2 Hedonic Regressions for Medellín, 2006 (continued)
Variable
Rent paid + rent estimateda Rent paidb
Coefficient t beta Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value
(Col$) Coefficient t beta
Implicit price (US$) Value (US$) Value (Col$)
133
Number of places related to utility
services per 1,000 population n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. –0.0760 –1.66 –0.0076 –9.33 –0.28 –657
Population density n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.00002 1.29 0.0043 0.00 0.14 320
Average years of education by
census tract 0.0529 9.61 0.1111 7.67 71 167,527 0.0546 8.69 0.1156 6.70 62 146,481
Crime rate (murders) per 100,000
population –0.0039 –6.20 –0.0336 –0.56 –6.06 –14,321 –0.0028 –3.41 –0.0258 –0.34 –3.67 –8,667
Constant 10.4345 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.3699 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Observations (n) 16,323 6,275
R2 0.7636 0.7246
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from the ECV of Medellín; Metroinformación, Department of Municipal Planning; and the Colombian
1993 and 2005 population censuses.
Note: n.a. = not applicable; ECV = Encuesta de Calidad de Vida; LPG = liquid propane gas. House: dummy variable equal to 1 if house, 0 otherwise
(apartment and the like). High-quality floor material: floor material includes any marble, parquet, lacquered wood, carpet, floor tile, vinyl, tablet, or wood. Cultural place: museums, theaters. Place of vigilance: police station, Center of Immediate Attention, police departments. Place of food provision: plazas, places of food supply. Place of public administration: embassies, consulates, comptrollerships, public utilities, ministries, superintendencies, and so forth. Subway or Metro-Plus station: Medellín’s massive transportation system, with Metro-Plus operating buses that travel on roads used exclusively by them. Definitions and descriptions of other variables are available in annex 1 of Medina, Morales, and Núñez (2008). The exchange rate in October 2006 was Col$2,364 per U.S. dollar.
a. Rent actually paid or value of rent that households estimate they would pay under lease. b. Rent actually paid.
for houses located in those census sectors. However, increasing the aver- age education of the census sector, the number of rooms, and the number of bathrooms by 1.00 SD would imply house rent increases of 0.11, 0.11, and 0.08 SD, respectively. Finally, decreasing the distance to a subway or Metro-Plus station by 1.00 SD would increase house rents by 0.05 SD (that is, decreasing distance to the nearest station by 1 kilometer would increase house value by approximately 5 percent because the standard deviation of the rent is similar to its mean).
Again for Medellín as it was for Bogotá, most of the key determinants of house rents are amenities. Results do not change significantly when only renters—rather than a wider sample of households—are considered. The implicit price of the variables and their monetary values, estimated accord- ing to equation (5.2) (“Implicit price” and “Value” columns in each panel of table 5.2), show that the largest monetary value capitalized in house values results from the average education in the census sector, followed by the availability of potable water, the number of rooms, and the pres- ence of a kitchen as an additional room. Despite its lower implicit price, stratum 3 again is explained by the larger share of houses in that stratum (32.0 percent, versus 11.0 percent, 9.0 percent, and 3.4 percent in strata 4, 5, and 6, respectively).