4. MODELIZACIÓN FLUIDODINÁMICA
4.5 VALIDACIÓN II VALIDACIÓN DEL MODELO NUMÉRICO DE
4.5.2 Comprobación
A synthesis of key quantitative studies relevant to the current research was undertaken. These studies were selected because they focused on the impact of family structure on child outcomes and informed the conceptualisation of this study. The studies differed in relation to the nature of the variables and the covariates included in the
analyses. Some studies considered the effects of school or residential mobility on
outcomes. Several studies used cumulative risk indexes of child and family characteristics to test associations between the number of family transitions and the impact on
developmental outcomes. The use of such cumulative indexes provided parsimony in the statistical analyses. Most of the studies included had a focus on child outcomes through middle childhood which was also of important interest in the conceptualisation of this research. The outcomes of interest were those relating to child emotional or behavioural adjustment, or academic achievement. Primarily, these studies were conducted in the United States.
A number of the studies reviewed focused on family transitions. For example, Fagan (2012) examined the effects of maternal relationship dissolution on the literacy skills of preschool children using data from the Birth Cohort of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey (ECLS-B) conducted in the United States. A sample of 6,450 children selected for this study from the larger dataset included those children who were living with their biological mothers as the primary caregiver, across two time points, when children were 24 months and 48 months old. Children in family situations in which relationship dissolution had occurred (in either married or cohabitating partnerships) were compared with children in stable parental relationships. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine differences between the groups. Control variables to account for
selection effects in each group included child gender, age, ethnicity and cognitive ability. Results in Fagan’s research revealed that lower literacy outcomes were evident for children whose mothers divorced and were now cohabitating in comparison to those children in stable intact married families. Additionally, those children who had
transitioned from married or cohabitating households into single-parent families also had lower literacy levels, as did children in stable cohabiting families, when compared to
41 those children in stable married families. No significance differences were found for children who had transitioned from divorcing or cohabitating parents to live in single- parent households. This research highlighted that differing family structures and transitions may result in different developmental trajectories. The experience of two family transitions compounded negative effects.
Ryan and Claessens (2012) examined family structure change and the associations with children’s behaviour problems using longitudinal data from the Maternal and Child Supplement of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. A sample of 3492 children was selected. Family structure and family transitions were compared for three family types (two biological parents, single parents, and re-partnered parents); and a category of ‘other change’ was also utilised. Hierarchical linear models were developed to examine long term impacts for family changes experienced by children within their first three years. For children who transitioned from two-parent households into single parent families, significant associations were found for increased problem behaviour through to age 9/10 years. Variations in outcomes were found in relation to the type of change in family structure. For example, early changes into a single-parent family were associated with short and long term effects on problem behaviours if children had come from households with two married parents. For children, whose parents had not married there were short term and smaller increases in problem behaviours. The combined effects of multiple transitions were not considered in this study.
The association between family transitions and child outcomes for 238 boys was also examined, using data from the Oregon Divorce Study-II, by Martinez and Forgatch (2002). Children were tracked from grades 1 to 3, with family transitions including maternal relationship formation or dissolution. A minimum transition count of one was given to mothers who were separated or divorced at the study onset. Academic,
behavioural and emotional outcomes were considered using structural equation modelling. There were significant associations between higher numbers of family transitions, poorer behavioural and emotional adjustment, and lower academic
achievement. However, behavioural and emotional outcomes were mediated by effective parenting such that children with more family transitions received less effective
parenting. Similarly, academic outcomes were mediated by parental academic skill encouragement such that children with more transitions received less encouragement. While the limitations of this study included that this was a study of boys who had already
42 experienced a parental separation, results demonstrate greater negative effects for
multiple transitions on children’s developmental trajectories.
Studies which focused on family transitions along with other social changes such as residential change were also of interest in the conceptualisation of the current research. For example, Osborne and McLanahan (2007) explored the associations between mother partnership changes and child behaviour. A sample of 2,111 children participating in the Fragile Families Study was used and three waves of data were utilised for analyses, including data from soon after the child’s birth, when they were 1 year old, and again when children were 3 years of age. Family transitions were defined in this study as the formation or dissolution of romantic relationships for mothers (marriage, cohabitation, and also dating). The total number of maternal partnership changes was calculated, and changes in income, residential moves, maternal stress, quality of mothering and education were also considered.
Results found by Osborne and McLanahan (2007) indicated that there was an accumulation of negative effects that occurred with multiple transitions that resulted in increases in behavioural problems. Children born to single mothers were more likely to have significantly higher ratings for aggressive behaviour and were more likely to have experienced multiple moves in comparison to those born to married mothers. Maternal stress and lower levels of parenting quality increased the likelihood of negative effects on children. It is important to note that the effect of partnership instability on child outcomes was not mediated by income or residential change potentially because there was little change in the level of financial resources available to the family and/or because of the short time frame across which data was analysed.
Ackerman, Brown, D’Eramo and Izard (2002) examined the associations between maternal relationship instability and child behavioural and academic outcomes. A sample of 139 children recruited from Head Start programs was selected and data were collected when children were in preschool, first grade and third grade. Children were aged 8-9 years by the third round of data collection. Maternal relationship instability was measured by the number of relationship dissolutions with partners who had lived in the child’s household. Instability was categorised into three groups - past instability (from child’s birth to first grade), recent instability (change from first grade to third grade) and chronic instability (total number of changes). Negative life events experiences were also scored at each point of data collection. Measures of chronic adversity were constructed across time
43 points that included family income, number of residential moves, number of negative life events and parent mental health. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the effects of chronic instability. Significant effects were found for family instability on externalising behaviour for both boys and girls, and internalising behaviours for girls. Chronic instability did not predict child academic outcomes. However, maternal education did have an impact on academic outcomes. Past and recent experiences of instability were found to have independent effects on outcomes, with past instability predicting behaviour problems in third grade.
While variation can be seen across these studies in the nature of the findings, similarities to the design of the current research included the use of longitudinal data collected across multiple time points. Parent relationship status tended to be usually defined as relationship status (married, separated or cohabitating) or by parent status (two biological parents, single parent, re-partnered parent). Variations in the approaches to measurement of change are also evident, ranging from categorisation of past or recent changes, or by a count of the total number of changes. This approach was also seen in the studies that included residential or financial change. Cumulative risk indexes were also utilised by some studies. The majority selected samples that had children residing with biological mothers. Some samples were representative while others focused on
economically disadvantaged groups. Most of the studies were completed within the United States. For the current research, LSAC provides an opportunity to examine a representative Australian sample. Further detail on how these studies have informed the current research is presented in Appendix A.1, along with detail on the key findings relating to outcomes by family structure, directional effects of transition type, timing effects, cumulative risk, and other influential variables.
In summary, the key findings of the studies reviewed indicated that children in single-parent and re-partnered parent families had a higher risk of lower academic achievement and adjustment compared to those in biological parent households. For example, children born to married parents achieved more positively on the majority of outcomes examined (e.g., Bachman et al., 2011); and were less likely to face future additional risk of family transitions in comparison to children born to single mothers who more likely to have higher ratings on measures of aggression (Osborne & McLanahan, 2007). More positive behaviour and higher achievement were found for children living in
44 intact families, while living in a single-parent family was associated with lower academic achievement and behavioural adjustment (Magnuson & Berger, 2009).
Overall, these studies established that in relation to family structure and cumulative risk that included multiple family transitions, both family and child level factors contribute to variations in child developmental outcomes. Support that children received, including relationship quality across home and school contexts, is also an important consideration for measurement in this study. Ecological models, such as that adopted for LSAC and the current research, provided opportunities to take into account the inter-connections across and between factors in different contexts of the child’s life.
Given the strong focus on the support and relationship quality for the child, the proposed theoretical model and the current research utilises a similar approach to Adam and Chase-Lansdale (2002) which was discussed above and also in Appendix A.1. Adam and Chase-Lansdale (2002) also used hierarchical regression analyses with demographic controls entered into models first (relating to child and family contexts), followed by disruption (stability and change) variables, and lastly social support and environment quality variables were entered. For the current research, this enabled Study 3 to examine the ecological factors that influence child adjustment and achievement by considering child, family/household, and school contexts, potential stresses across these contexts and the role support and quality relationships play in contributing to risk or resilience in child developmental trajectories.
2.8
Conclusions
The instability of family structure has become an increasingly salient part of many children’s lives in Australia, and in other countries, over the past half-century. During this period, divorce rates have increased, as h a s the prevalence of non-marital cohabitation. A relatively high percentage of Australian children experience transitions into single-parent families and stepfamilies. Research is still needed to understand the impact of these family forms on children, especially for the Australian context. The value of longitudinal data has also been identified in this chapter as important in order to assess the shorter term and longer term impact of family transitions on children’s
45 In this chapter, the nature of changes in the demographics of families over recent time has been outlined. Current understanding of research about the impact on family structure on child outcomes from national and international studies has been considered. The mechanisms by which family change impacts on children have also been identified, including economic issues, issues of family stress, and partner selection factors that may operate in forming adult relationships. Residential and school changes as mediating the effects of family change have also been discussed. The importance of children’s positive relationships with parents, teachers, and peers to longer term developmental outcomes is also relevant. An ecological model was proposed to capture the embedded nature of children and families in larger systems. This model has provided a framework for the current body of research.
In the next chapter, information about the LSAC study is presented. It provides the longitudinal data which is used in this research. Details on the studies for this thesis are outlined. Measures used in the analyses are explained as well as the approaches to the statistical analyses.
47