6. Configuración
6.8 Comunicación
Based on analysis of freight between Melbourne and Brisbane, and vice versa, freight between points along the route including grain and coal freight to ports for export, and freight between points outside the route and points on it (e.g.
Perth to Brisbane), the four key drivers representing market priorities and the needs of customers for freight services outlined above were considered based on their relevance to each freight segment—reliability, transit time, price and availability. These factors are all important for non-bulk intercapital freight, with availability and reliability considered essential for express and other just-in time freight (e.g. postal, retail chains). Bulk commodities (e.g. paper and steel) are less sensitive to journey time and more sensitive to price, and as such tend to use rail or sea freight on the domestic legs of international shipping services. The majority of the total market is between these extremes, mainly comprising container freight, which is contestable between rail and road.
Intercapital
Better rail service offered by Inland Rail is about more than faster trains and higher reliability between Melbourne and Brisbane at the same assumed rail access price. Lower transit time, a higher tonne axle load and longer trains flow through to lower train operating costs which are assumed to be passed on to rail customers. Over time, increasing congestion on roads (particularly in urban areas along the route) is likely to increase road transit times and raise operating costs for road freight, this is combined with expectations the oil price will rise over time to approximately US$120 in 2014 prices by 2030.
107 QCA, ‘Queensland Rail’s 2013 Draft Access Undertaking’, October, 2013.
108 Queensland Rail, ‘Explanatory Submission – Queensland Rail’s Draft Access Undertaking 1, Volume 1’, May, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Key features include:
Inland Rail is expected to take all of the Melbourne to Brisbane rail freight from the coastal route (freeing up capacity through Sydney for Melbourne to Sydney and Sydney to Brisbane rail freight as well as rail passenger services) and increase rail freight’s share of that market by 18 percentage points compared to the base case (2029–30). This is approximately 50 per cent more volume carried on rail from Melbourne to Brisbane.
- Overall the tonnage on rail and road moved between Melbourne to Brisbane is estimated to be 6.5 million tonnes in 2024–25 and 7.6 million tonnes in 2029–30, with Inland Rail capturing 3.2 million tonnes in 2024–25 and 4.0 million tonnes in 2029–30. By 2049–50, Inland Rail is forecast to carry 8.3 million tonnes of
containerised non-bulk goods between Melbourne and Brisbane.
Additional intercapital freight from Perth and Adelaide using Inland Rail between Brisbane and Parkes is expected to increase total freight volumes. This freight will be diverted from the longer route via Sydney, shortening the distance by up to 543 kilometres.
- Brisbane to Perth (0.9 million tonnes in 2024–25 reaching 1.8 million tonnes by 2049–50).
- Brisbane to Adelaide (0.6 million tonnes in 2024–25 reaching 1.4 million tonnes by 2049–50).
Inland Rail provides the opportunity to attract significant volumes of road freight from North Queensland to Melbourne, however these volumes are difficult to quantify and are not included in the demand analysis.
Regional
Regional freight between points along the route consists mainly of grain, cotton, pulses and other agricultural products, with some non-bulk (containerised) freight between regional New South Wales (predominantly from the Ettamogah Hub in Albury), Toowoomba and Brisbane, including:
In 2024–25 approximately 4.2 million tonnes of NSW grain is estimated to traverse sections of Inland Rail en route to the Ports of Port Kembla and Newcastle for export or en route to milling and malting operations in Manildra and Nowra.
In 2024–25 0.6 million tonnes of grain from northern New South Wales (Moree and the area to its north) is also expected to travel to Brisbane on Inland Rail, diverting from rail and road to the Port of Newcastle.
Similarly, it is expected that 0.4 million tonnes of containerised cotton and cottonseed from Narrabri will divert from road to rail for its export via the Port of Brisbane by 2024–25.
Inland Rail may alter the preferred destination ports, with Brisbane receiving grain otherwise exported via the Port of Newcastle, but this is dependent on the pricing of export terminal services at those ports, as well as the transport cost. It is likely that Inland Rail will facilitate greater competition between ports and increased returns to growers as a result.
The grain production in the Darling Downs is predominantly moved by road to the Port of Brisbane.
Cost savings generated by Inland Rail, which will require upgrades to branch lines and the Port of Brisbane Extension, could increase rail mode share to 40 per cent, consistent with rail’s share of exports in other east coast ports.
This would increase grain and pulses freight to one million tonnes on Inland Rail in 2024–25, increasing current rail volumes by 0.6 million tonnes of diverted road freight.
The Darling Downs and Maranoa produce some 0.3 million tonnes of containerised cotton products and approximately 0.2 million of this is expected to use Inland Rail to be exported via the Port of Brisbane.
This would see a doubling of the current rail use for cotton export.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Approximately 0.4 million tonnes of freight is expected to travel from the Charlton Wellcamp freight precinct to the Port of Brisbane on Inland Rail. This freight is likely to include consolidated agricultural freight from the Toowoomba and Darling Downs regions, and manufactured goods from the on-site industrial precinct.
Some 0.2 million tonnes of goods between Parkes and Brisbane are expected to divert from road to rail freight in 2024–25. This represents an amount of Brisbane to Perth freight which is carried by road from Brisbane to Parkes before being loaded on to Sydney to Perth trains at Parkes.109
Coal
Thermal coal from the Surat and Clarence-Moreton Basins has been assessed to travel to the Port of Brisbane (and is currently the largest single commodity to travel through the port). ACIL Allen analysis suggests that thermal coal would not move south to Newcastle via Inland Rail, as the value of that coal is too low to cover the considerable mining costs and the longer rail distances. No existing or potential coal mines in the New South Wales portion of the Clarence-Moreton Basin between the border with Queensland and half-way from Moree to Narrabri have been identified.
Mines and potential mines in the Gunnedah to Boggabri to Narrabri region of the Gunnedah Basin are much closer to Newcastle than to Brisbane and are not considered to be viable for transport to the Port of Brisbane.
Current coal exports of 8 million tonnes are forecast to increase to 19.5 million tonnes with Inland Rail as a result of reduced above rail operating costs from higher axle loads east of Oakey (20 tonne axle loads compared to the current 15.75 tonnes), longer trains (1010 metres compared to the current 650 metres) a more direct alignment in tunnel across the Toowoomba Range that avoids the current crossing where operating speeds are constrained by high gradients and tight curves on a winding track. Capital investment in additional loops on the Western Line and Brisbane metropolitan rail network (at Murrarie and Clapham Yard) are required to enable coal train lengths to increase from 650 metres to 1010 metres. An alternative core scenario has also been presented which excluded upgrades to the Western Line and Brisbane metropolitan network, reducing forecast coal volumes to around 8.8 million tonnes as a result of restricting train lengths to 650 metres, which would mean the assumed cap of 87 coal train paths becomes binding at lower volumes, and not realising operating cost savings that would result from longer train lengths.
Total tonnages on Inland Rail (excluding coal) are estimated to be 11.4 million tonnes in 2024–25 and 12.9 million tonnes in 2029–30. The corresponding net tonne kilometres (excluding coal) are estimated to be 9.7 billion net tonne kilometres in 2024–25 and 11.7 billion net tonne kilometres in 2029–30.
ACIL Allen estimates of the market take up of Inland Rail are shown in Table 7.1. A breakdown of forecast Inland Rail north and southbound volumes by freight type for both tonnes (thousands) and net tonne kilometres (billions) in 2049-50 is illustrated in Figure 7.3.
109 ACIL Allen, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Table 7.1 Forecast combined Inland Rail north and southbound volumes (tonnes and net tonnes kilometres)
2024–25 2029–30 2039–40 2049–50 2059-60 2069-70 - NET TONNES (000)
Intercapital/
intermodal
Melbourne to Brisbane 3195 4008 5674 7906 10 522 13 986
Brisbane to Adelaide 560 690 997 1412 1951 2701
Brisbane to Perth 878 1034 1398 1815 2303 2906
Regional Coal (SEQ-Brisbane)*^ 12 900 19 500 19 500 19 500 19 500 19 500
Agricultural products 6750 7129 7954 8873 9899 11 043
Total 24 283 32 361 35 523 39 507 44 175 50 137
- NET TONNE KILOMETRES (MILLIONS) Intercapital/
intermodal
Melbourne to Brisbane 5527 6934 9817 13 677 18 204 24 197
Brisbane to Adelaide** 573 707 1021 1447 1998 2767
Brisbane to Perth** 900 1059 1432 1860 2360 2978
Regional Coal (SEQ-Brisbane)*^ 3973 6292 6292 6292 6292 6292
Agricultural products 1687 1782 1988 2218 2475 2761
Total 12 660 16 774 20 550 25 494 31 328 38 994
Note: *SEQ is an abbreviation for South East Queensland. ** Excludes net tonne kilometres for intercapital freight travelling between Adelaide to Brisbane and Perth to Brisbane that occurs beyond Inland Rail (i.e. from Parkes to Adelaide and Perth respectively). ^ These forecast volumes are within the existing maximum 87 coal paths per week that can potentially be contracted on the Metropolitan Network (set by QR).110 These volumes require complementary investment on the QR network (Western Line and Brisbane metropolitan network) to enable coal train lengths to increase from 650 metres to 1010 metres. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Source: ACIL Allen, 2015.
110 Explanatory Submission – Queensland Rail’s Draft Access Undertaking 1, Volume 2, May 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Figure 7.3 Combined Inland Rail north and southbound volumes by freight in 2049-50 (net tonne kilometres)
Source: PwC, ACIL Allen, 2015.
As intercapital freight is more readily comparable, Table 7.2 (Melbourne to Brisbane), Table 7.3 (Brisbane to Adelaide) and Table 7.4 (Brisbane to Perth) present intercapital freight demand if there is no Inland Rail (the base case) and under a scenario with Inland Rail.
54%
6%
7%
25%
9%
Melbourne-Brisbane intercapital/intermodal Brisbane-Adelaide intercapital/intermodal Brisbane-Perth intercapital/intermodal Coal
Agricultural and other products
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Table 7.2 Melbourne to Brisbane combined north and southbound forecast intercapital tonnes (thousand tonnes and market share)
SCENARIO MODE 2014–15 2024–25 2029–30 2039–40 2049–50 2059-60 2069-70 Base case
Inland Rail Grand Total (thousand
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Source: ACIL Allen, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Table 7.3 Brisbane to Adelaide combined north and southbound forecast intercapital tonnes (thousand tonnes and market share)
SCENARIO MODE 2014–15 2024–25 2029–30 2039–40 2049–50 2059-60 2069-70 Base case
Inland Rail Grand Total (thousand
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Source: ACIL Allen, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Table 7.4 Brisbane to Perth combined north and southbound forecast intercapital tonnes (thousand tonnes and market share)
SCENARIO MODE 2014–15 2024–25 2029–30 2039–40 2049–50 2059-60 2069-70 Base case
Inland Rail Grand Total (thousand
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Source: ACIL Allen, 2015.
INLAND RAIL PROGRAMME BUSINESS CASE
Forecasts of agricultural freight diverting to Inland Rail from other regional rail lines or road is provided in Table 7.5.
Table 7.5 Forecast agricultural tonnes diverting to the Inland Rail (thousand tonnes and market share)
2014–15 2024–25 2029-30 2039-40 2049-50 2059-60 2069-70 Inland Rail
(thousand tonnes) 0 6750 7129 7954 8873 9899 11043
Diverted from existing rail (thousand tonnes)
0 4998 5279 5889 6570 7329 8177
Diverted from road
(thousand tonnes) 0 1752 1851 2065 2303 2570 2867
Inland Rail (%)
0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Diverted from
existing rail (%) 0% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74%
Diverted from road
(%) 0% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
Source: ACIL Allen, 2015.