The special biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics of the prairies are the main reason for choosing the Canadian prairies as the focus for this study. In this study, the study area is the Prairies Ecozone and some part of the Boreal Plains Ecozone(Ecological Stratification Working Group, 1995) (Figure 4.1). The Prairies Eco-zone is composed mostly of agricultural cropland (75%) and grasslands (Figure 4.2). Table 4.1 illustrates the number of farms and farmland area for Canada and the Prairies. More than half of the Canadian farms are located in
the Prairies and with more than 54 millions hectare of farmland it has more than 80% of Canadian farmland (Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha, 2008).
Source: Environment Canada available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-201-x/2007000/5212634-eng.htm
Figure 4.1 Canadian Climate regions
Source: Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha (2008) available at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/SOER/1996report/Doc/1-6-4-3-1.cfm#f4-1(f)
Figure 4.2 Land cover Distribution of Prairies
Table 4.1 Number of farms and farmland area in Prairies and Canada, 2001
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Prairies Canada
Number of farms 54×103 51×103 21×103 125×103 247×103 Area of farmland (ha) 21×106 26 ×106 8×106 55×106 68×106 Source: Statistics Canada (2001) available at: http://www.statcan.ca/english/agcensus2001/index.htm
The Western Interior Basin that comprises the northern portion of cultivable land in North America (Great Plains eco-zone) is where Prairie agriculture takes place (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005).The classification of the climatic regimes of the Prairie is cold and sub-Arctic. Hot summers, very cold winters, and low annual precipitation characterize the prairie
Prairies
Deciduous forest
3%
Agricultural cropland
70%
Rangeland and pasture
27%
climate1 (Weber and Hauer, 2003). Average yearly temperatures are highest in southern Alberta and temperatures decrease in the direction of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Figure 4.2).
Source: Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha (2008) available at:
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch7/images/fig4_a_e.jpg
Figure 4.3 Prairies Climate Normal (1961-1990) Temperature
Annual precipitation ranges from 400 mm to 700 mm for Manitoba, Saskatchewan (300 mm–500 mm) and Alberta (300 mm–500 mm) tend to receive relatively less precipitation (Figure 4.3). Continuous snow cover in this region varies from year to year and from south to north but northern and eastern regions can expect about 4 to 5 months of snow cover (Herrington et al., 1997). Snow also is good source for soil moisture recharge and water storage. Across the Prairies the precipitation is relatively equal but the amount of available moisture is dramatically less in south western Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta. Increasing temperature and wind are two important causes of evaporation and evapo-transpiration on the prairies. Burn and Hesch (2007) estimate an increasing evaporation trend using 40 years data for prairies. This trend
1 Sub humid
shows an increase in northern regions than southern regions of Prairies. Availability of water for agricultural production is one of the most important impacts of climate change on agriculture.
Source: Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha (2008) available at:
http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/ch7/images/fig4_b_e.jpg
Figure 4.4 Prairies Climate Normals (1961-1990) Precipitation
Agricultural land use of this region is mostly specified for grain and oilseeds. Export of grains, oilseeds and animal products has played an important role in Canadian foreign exchange.
Canadian Prairie agricultural makes a significant contribution to the nation’s wealth. The prairies produce well over half of the total value of Canadian agri-food exports. Although grain production has historically been associated with prairie agriculture and continues to account for the majority of production, recently, farmers begun diversify into specialty crops (Tyrchniewicz and Chiotti 1997). Also, McCrae and Smith (2000) show that Prairie agriculture dominates in the share of Canadian agricultural GDP, grain and oilseeds represent approximately 52% of the
Prairies agricultural GDP while red meat contribute 33.5% of GDP. Also, the Prairies have lower productivity per hectare relative to Ontario and Quebec (Weber and Hauer, 2003).
According to Environment Canada (Hengeveld, 2000), yearly average temperature in the Prairie provinces have warmed about 1.2°C over the last 50 years, with average winter temperatures warming about 3.0°C, and summer temperatures increasing about 0.2°C. Since 1948, seven of the ten warmest years in the Prairies have occurred since 1981. Most of the climate change scenarios that have been projected for the Prairie Provinces suggest that the southern Prairies can expect an increase in the frequency and length of droughts. This region could experience deficiencies in soil moisture by the end of the century which is due to both changes in precipitation patterns and also due to increased potential evapo-transpiration.
However, not all parts of the Prairie Provinces will experience the same effects (Hengeveld, 2000). Hogg and Hurdle (1995) anticipate the regional context of prairies may change from the left corner of the map (Lethbridge) to the right corner (north east of Winnipeg) due to change in the climate (Figure 4.5).
Source: Hogg and Hurdle, 1995
Figure 4.5 Anticipated changes in the regional context of Prairies
In brief, the large and diverse agricultural economy, favorable soils, and climatic regime have given a unique biophysical and socioeconomic characteristic to the Canadian prairies. Also, high probability of severe flooding, change in precipitation and temperature patterns and more frequent drought makes the prairies more vulnerable to climate change. These characteristics make the prairies an excellent region to examine the economic impacts of climate change.
The data for the empirical analysis of this study is based on three time periods (1991, 1996, and 2001) for the Canadian Prairies. The data sources are Agricultural Census 1991, 1996 and 2001, Census of population 1991, 1996 and 2001, Statistics Canada, Environment Canada, and C-RERL2 (Canada Rural Economy Research Lab). In the next section all variables will be introduced and interpreted to make them relevant to represent Prairie condition.
2 Most of the data previously has been refined by C-RERL