MBTA’s ADA complementary paratransit ridership in FY 2010 was 2,095,998 and its projected FY 2011 ridership is 2,106,801. To determine how this level of ridership compares with other transit agencies, the review team used a national ADA complementary paratransit ridership model to estimate the predicted ADA complementary paratransit ridership in the MBTA’s ADA complementary paratransit service area.
The national model, developed by the Transportation Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) and detailed in TCRP Report 119, Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand
Estimation, used data from 28 transit systems across the country to model ADA complementary
paratransit demand. The model estimates ADA complementary paratransit demand based on the population of the service area, the base fare charged, the percentage of the population with household incomes below the poverty level, the effective window used to determine on-time performance, the percentage of applicants found conditionally eligible, and whether conditional eligibility is used to do trip-by-trip eligibility in operations.
To estimate demand for the GRTA ADA complementary paratransit area using this national model, the review team used the following data:
Service area population: 2,417,553 (2000 U.S. Census data)
Base ADA complementary paratransit fare: $2.00
Service area poverty rate: 8.6 percent (U.S. census data)
Conditional eligibility rate: 10.4 percent
On-time window: 20 minutes
Using these factors, the TCRP model estimated the annual demand for ADA complementary paratransit service for THE RIDE to be 2,332,786 one-way trips. This is more than 11 percent higher than the MBTA’s projected FY 2011 ridership for THE RIDE. A copy of the summary page from the model showing the estimation for the MBTA ADA complementary paratransit area is provided in Attachment I.
10.9 Recommendations
1. The MBTA and the contractors should seek ways to continually recruit and train drivers to meet the growing operational needs of THE RIDE. The ratios of drivers to peak fleet were low for the current operations of the three contractors, leading to a greater potential of uncovered runs.
2. The MBTA should ensure that it has sufficient staff to process applications for THE RIDE service.
3. The MBTA should ensure that it continues to have the resources to meet future growth in THE RIDE, for which it projects annual ridership growth of 7 percent for at least the next 3 years. It should investigate the proper application of conditional eligibility, which has a great potential for dampening ridership growth.
Attachment A
Attachment C
Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA)
Boston, MA
July 19-27, 2010
Schedule
Time Activity Who Where
Monday, July 19, 2010
9 a.m. Opening Conference All MBTA 10 Park Plaza 9:30 a.m. Review information requested and policies &
procedures with MBTA and contractor managers All 10:30 a.m. Review MBTA oversight tasks All
1 p.m.
Review eligibility process and records Review complaints
Review data availability: telephones, trip length, on-time
Thatcher Hersey Purdy, Chia
2 p.m. Review MBTA budget and resources Review service criteria Chia Hersey
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
8 a.m. Tour facility All VTS: 224 Calvary St., Waltham 8:30 a.m. Review data availability Observe dispatch All Thatcher
9:30 a.m. Observe call-takers; record trip request information Review telephone system and performance Hersey, Chia Purdy
11 a.m. Interview scheduler Review VTS resources Interview drivers Thatcher Chia Hersey, Purdy 1 p.m.
Analyze personnel shifts and turnover
Analyze vehicle pull-out and driver availability Interview drivers Thatcher Chia Hersey, Purdy 3 p.m. Observe dispatch
Observe call-takers; record trip request information
Thatcher, Chia Hersey, Purdy
Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA)
Boston, MA
July 19-27, 2010
Schedule
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
8:30 a.m. Observe call-takers; record trip request information Hersey, Purdy VTS 224 Calvary St., Waltham 10 a.m. Interview drivers Hersey, Purdy VTS Morning
(as needed)
Continue review of MBTA budget and resources Continue review of eligibility
Chia Thatcher
MBTA
Afternoon Continue follow-up interviews and analysis as needed Hersey, Purdy VTS
Thursday, July 22, 2010
8 a.m. Tour facility Thatcher, Purdy
GLSS
330 Lynnway, Lynn
8:30 a.m. Review data availability Observe dispatch Purdy Thatcher 9:30 a.m. Observe call-takers; record trip request information Thatcher, Purdy 11 a.m. Interview scheduler Interview drivers Thatcher Purdy
1 p.m.
Analyze personnel shifts and turnover; review GLSS resources
Interview drivers
Thatcher Purdy 3 p.m. Observe dispatch Observe call-takers; record trip request information Thatcher Purdy
8 a.m. Tour facility Chia, Hersey
JV
110 Meadow Rd. Readville
8:30 a.m. Observe call-takers; record trip request information Review data availability Hersey Chia 9:30 a.m. Observe dispatch Chia, Hersey 11 a.m. Interview scheduler Interview drivers Chia Hersey
1 p.m.
Analyze personnel shifts and turnover; review JV resources
Interview drivers
Chia Hersey Observe dispatch Chia
Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA)
Boston, MA
July 19-27, 2010
Schedule
Friday, July 23, 2010 8 a.m. Observe dispatch Observe call-takers; record trip request information
Thatcher Purdy
GLSS
330 Lynnway, Lynn
9:30 a.m. Analyze vehicle pull-out and driver availability Review telephone system and performance Thatcher Purdy 11 a.m. &
afternoon
Conduct further data collection and interviews, as
needed Thatcher, Purdy 8 a.m.
Observe dispatch
Observe call-takers; record trip request information
Chia Hersey
JV
110 Meadow Rd. Readville
9:30 a.m. Analyze vehicle pull-out and driver availability Review telephone system and performance Chia Hersey 11 a.m. &
afternoon
Conduct further data collection and interviews, as
needed Chia, Hersey
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Morning
Complete preliminary data analysis & remaining detail work
Prepare materials for debriefing session
All MBTA 2 p.m. Exit Conference All MBTA
Attachment I
Input Values
ADA service area population (2000 Census) 2,417,553 Base fare for ADA paratransit (Dollars) $2.00
conditionally eligible 9.6
Conditional trip determination 1
Percent of the population in the ADA service area in households
with 1999-2000 income below the poverty line 8.60% Effective on-time window for ADA paratransit (minutes) 20
Results
Predicted Annual Ridership per Capita 0.96 Predicted Annual Ridership 2,332,786
Confidence Intervals for Mean Value for Systems with the Characteristics Entered
Trips per Capita Annual Ridership
Upper 95% confidence limit 1.77 4,286,389
Upper 90% confidence limit 1.60 3,860,499
Lower 90% confidence limit 0.58 1,409,634
Lower 95% confidence limit 0.53 1,269,574
Actual 2010 ridership 2,095,998