CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES

We have applied the same trade margins and tradable surplus ratios for provinces as used for national estimates. We already have provincial domestic production with us; the imports to the country have been provincialised on the basis of the following indicators:

ƒ Imports of consumers goods: share of provinces in urban population

ƒ Imports of capital goods: provincial share in industry

ƒ Imports of raw Material: provincial share in industry

The trade margins for imports have then be applied on provincial estimates of imports to estimate import related value added of trade.67

The value added of hotels and restaurants have been provincialised on the basis of provincial shares in years of 1979, 1984, 2000 for which surveys of hotel and restaurants are available; the shares have been kept constant for inter-survey years.

6.3.2 Transport, storage & communication

The provincialisation of this sector is undertaken on the basis of a number of different indicators of which provincial distribution is available. The gross value added of

67

Here is a caveat, while we have provincialised trade related to national level of imports, trade of commodities coming from other provinces could not be estimated due to unavailability of data series of inter-provincial commodity flows.

Pakistan Railway is provincialised on the basis of length of railway routes in each province. The routes in kilometers are reported in different issues of the provincial development statistics.

The provincial distribution of gross value added of air transport is undertaken on the basis of all passengers handled at airports located in each province. Airport-wise information of passengers has been obtained from annual reports of Civil Aviation Authority. The gross value added of pipeline transport is distributed into provinces on the basis provincial oil consumption. The province-wise oil consumption has been obtained from various issues of Pakistan Energy Year Book.

In case of the gross value added of water transport, we have allocated 100% value added of PNSC, KPT, Port Qasim and others to Sindh. The value added of boats has been allocated to the four provinces on the basis of distribution of number of boats in each province. The province-wise numbers of boats are obtained from various issues of Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan.

The gross value added of road transport is provincialised on the basis of number of vehicles registered in provinces. The number of registered vehicles in each province has been obtained from Statistical Year Books. The provincial distribution of non- mechanized transport is undertaken on the basis of provincial population of camels, horses, asses and mules which are available in Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan.

The gross value added of telecommunication sector is distributed into provinces on the basis of number of telephones in each province. Such numbers are given in different issues of provincial development statistics. The gross value added of postal services is provincialised on the basis number of postal employees in each province; annual reports of Pakistan Post Office are the sources. The provincial distribution of storage is undertaken on the basis of provincial gross value added of trade which has already been estimated in a separate exercise.

6.3.3 Finance & insurance

The gross value added of finance and insurance has been provincialised on the basis of provincial distribution of employees working in financial institutions. The information about this distribution is obtained from various issues of Annual Establishment Enquiry published by FBS. The latest such enquiry is available for the year 1989-90; for later years, we have used the same year’s distribution.

6.3.4 Ownership of dwellings

Provincial distribution of imputed rent on dwellings has been used for provincialisation of value added of this sector. The imputed rent has been computed by multiplying the number of houses with average rent for different categories of houses viz. pucca, semi-pucca and kutcha which have been obtained for each province from different housing and rent surveys as mentioned in section 4.3.4. Formally, the computation of imputed rent in a province is expressed as:

∑

where Rp is total imputed rent in province p, rkp is average rent of category k of a

house in province p and Hkp is number of houses in k category in province p. The

share of a province in imputed rent is then used to provincialise the benchmark estimate of gross value added of ownership of dwelling in 1999-00. i.e.,

bm p p bm p DW R R DW _⎟⎟× ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ =

∑

where DWbm is benchmark value addition of ownership of dwelling in 1999-00 as

estimated by FBS. The gross value added of years other than 1999-00 has been estimated by applying annual compound growth rates in imputed rent on benchmark estimates of 1999-00 at provincial level.

6.3.5 Public administration and defence

We have made two parts of value added of this sector; value added of federal government and value added of provincial government. The value added of federal government has been provincialised by the distribution of federal employees on

provincial basis. These information are available in periodic census reports of Public Administration Research Centre, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Pakistan. The other part has been distributed into provinces on the basis of provincial expenditure on general government obtained from various issues of Statistical Year Book.

6.3.6 Social, community and private services

The gross value added of sector has been provincialised on the basis of provincial distribution of employees working in such services as reported by various issues of Annual Establishment Enquiry published by FBS.

The techniques of re-basing the national accounts and their decomposition in quarters and provinces as described in previous chapters have been applied on data from 1970- 71 to 2004-05. This chapter gives an analysis of results and compares our results with official estimates at old base for the period 1970-71 to 1998-99 and at new base for the period 1999-00 onward. Also a comparison of quarterisation and provincialisation of national accounts as undertaken in this study has been made with those of Bengaliwala (1995) and Bengali and Sadaqat (2005).