Most Turkish elites believe that economic sanctions will not work against an energy rich country particularly when world energy demand follows a continuous upward trend. In many cases, Turkish foreign policy elites stated that they would not support economic sanctions against Iran unless there is objective evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Despite pressure from the Bush Administration, the Erdogan Administration signed bilateral trade agreements with Iran and continues to expand bilateral trade relations. Turkish foreign policy elites believe that even if Turkey endorses economic sanctions, many other countries such as Russia, China and India are unlikely to take part in the U.S. propelled economic embargo.
Many key foreign policy actors also maintained that economic sanctions would not compel the Iranian governments to surrender the Western demands. They believe that in the new global context the Obama Administration is unlikely to convince a sufficient number of states in containment of Iran. On his return from the UN Security Council meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu noted that “We don’t believe that economic sanctions will work [against Iran]. The sanctions against the Saddam regime did not hurt his dictatorship but eroded Iraqi society which suffered from growing poverty. In the same way, the economic sanctions against Iran will not weaken the government but it will damage the Iranian society. Moreover, Turkey will be adversely affected by economic embargos against Iran.”394 Prime Minister Erdogan asserted that “The West could not isolate Iran so far. Economic containment did not work. Therefore, we can say that the sanctions have been unofficially abandoned. Some American companies seem to be complying with governmental policies but others are indirectly selling
products to Iran. You can see many German, French and British products in Iran.”395 Most of my interviewees presented converging views about the economic sanctions. Ambassador Faruk Laloglu, one of my diplomat interviewees, argued that “It is almost impossible to force Iran to stop its nuclear activities. The entire nation is behind this scheme. Americans cannot discourage the Iranians to stop nuclear enrichment. I don’t think the economic sanctions will work.”396 According to another interviewee Huseyin Bagci, who escorted Prime Minister Erdogan during his visit to Tehran, “unless there is a UN Security Council resolution, Turkey is unlikely to go along with the Western containment of Iran. An extensive UN sanction is quite unlikely under the existing circumstances.”397 Bagci added that:
Iran’s nuclear program has become an issue of national honor. All Iranians embrace this program. It is impossible to prevent it. Turkey can do nothing substantial to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment. I have attended some of Prime Minister Erdogan’s negotiations in Tehran. I participated in many other bilateral talks. I have talked to Ali Larijani and other key officials. I’m still keeping in touch with them. After so many interactions I have concluded that Iranians will not give up nuclear enrichment. Sanctions, economic
containment or even a military strike will not work. Iranians will eventually get what they want.398
In various speeches, Prime Minister Erdogan and other key members of his
administration made it clear that Turkey will not support international economic sanctions against Iran. They asserted that Turkey will continue to expand bilateral trade with Iran in line with Turkey’s national interests. In his speech at European Politics Center at Brussels, Erdogan indignantly responded to a question about Turkey’s participation into anti-Iranian sanctions, “We
395 Irna, “Basbakan Erdogan: Iran Yaptirimlarla bugune kadar tecrit edilemedi”, December 8, 2009, available at
www.irna.ir/tr/news/ivew/line.118/09122080876125131.htm, accessed [February 1, 2010].
396 Author's interview with Ambassador Faruk Laloglu, on December 24, 2009. 397 Author's interview with Huseyin Bagci on December 28, 2008. Ankara/Turkey. 398 Author's interview with Huseyin Bagci on December 28, 2008. Ankara/Turkey.
will never cut our economic relations with Iran! None can define our policy. Turkey is not a tribal state. We are a nation of great history. We decide what to do in an independent manner. No one can tell us whom we will trade with.”399
Turkish foreign policy makers accuse the European governments of hypocrisy with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. The Prime Minister and many other key officials draw attention to the growing trade volume among the major European powers and Iran that coincide with the EU3 initiative. Prime Minister Erdogan noted that “On the one hand the West is trying to impose sanctions, on the other they are clandestinely attempting to develop trade relations with Iran. They should not do it… If they continue this policy, it would be naiveté to anticipate that the sanctions will work.”400 Erdogan suggested “Let’s wait and see the proposed economic sanctions…But we [already] see that American, German, British and French products are entering the Iranian market through different channels. They cannot deny it. They should be more sincere if they want to impose sanctions.”401 One interviewee, Murat Mercan, Chairman of the Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee, asserted that “Some Western countries are not sincere in economic containment of Iran. In front of the press they seem committed to pressure Iran, but behind the scenes they have been continuously increasing their bilateral trade with the so called “rogue regime”. They are not credible. We cannot rely on them in our Iran policy. I’m distancing myself from existing Iran analyses in the Western media.”402 Similar views have been reported by the Iranian dissidents. Jahangir Amuzegar, a former Iranian finance minister,
399 Aktifhaber, “Erdogan Brukselde sert cikti”, January 19, 2009
400 Interview with Prime Minister Erdogan by Russia Today Tv, December 11, 2009, available at
http://www.haberturk.com/haber.asp?id=192667&cat=180&dt=2009/12/11
401 Gencturkhaber, “Obama’dan Erdgoan’a itiraf”, December 12, 2009 402 Author's interview with Murat Mercan on January 4, 2010. Ankara/Turkey.
reported that the trade between Iran and the EU grew 29 percent between 2001 and 2005.403 For Amuzegar, economic sanctions against the Iranian regime are unlikely to achieve the desired outcome as the major European countries continue to expand clandestine trade with Iran.
Apart from the growing European trade with Iran, some interviewees drew attention to Iran’s economic partnership with the major Asian states. Because it has become evident that all- encompassing economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely, Turkish foreign policy makers see no point in restricted U.S. led economic sanctions. In their view, Russia, India and China are unlikely to pass a UN Security Council resolution that would impose heavy economic sanctions on Iran. One interviewee, Serdar Erdurmaz pointed out that “Iran is an energy rich country that has the second largest natural gas resources and third largest oil reserves. In an increasingly energy hungry world, there will be strong demand for Iranian gas and oil for the foreseeable future. China has made over $120 billion investment in Iran. China is a leading customer of Iranian hydrocarbon resources. They don’t want to undermine these investments by complying with the Western containment strategy.” 404 According to Ambassador Laloglu, “The sanctions against Iran do not work. I don’t anticipate that they will work in the future. There is only one way to stop Iran’s attainment of nuclear weapons. It is Washington’s direct negotiation with Tehran. Both sides should explicate their concerns and propose their solutions.”405 He added that “Here is the problem. Americans never really seek a diplomatic solution… Even the Obama administration disregards diplomatic settlement.”406
403 Jahangir Amuzegar, “Nuclear Iran: Perils and Prospects”, Middle East Policy, Vol. XIII, No.2, Summer 2006 404 Author's interview with Serdar Erdurmaz on December 17, 2009. Ankara/Turkey.
405 Author's interview with Ambassador Faruk Laloglu, on December 24, 2009. 406 ibid.
Some of interviewees laid emphasis on the economic hazards of U.S. containment policies to the Turkish economy. Nasuh Uslu, a prominent foreign policy analyst in Turkey, noted that “We have been suffering from the aftereffects of the embargos against Iraq, Iran and Libya. We have lost over a hundred billion dollars because of the embargo against Saddam. Americans promised to reimburse our costs but have never done so. Now they want the same against Iran. We will not make this mistake again.”407 According to Suleyman Ozeren, director of UTSAM, “Turkey has been seriously affected by the previous American embargos in the region. An economic Embargo against Iran will not just thump the Iranians; it will also undermine our economic interests. It will cut down our trade not only with Iran but also with Central Asia. What do the Americans offer us in return if we support sanctions? They offer nothing tangible. We might end up losing hundreds of billions dollars.”408 Given these concerns, Turkey, as a member of the UN Security Council, is determined to vote against any sanctions against Iran. In accordance with these perceptions, Turkey voted against the UN Security Council Resolution 1929 on June 09, 2010, that proposed economic sanctions against Iran.