Consideraciones metodológicas en el uso diario de la VFC 73

We adopted a bottom-up approach to investigate the impacts on energy consumption and GHG emissions from the interplay between ethanol and EVs for passengers in the municipality of Sao Paulo. We assumed a TTW approach and used prospective scenarios generated by the LEAP model. Two categories of passenger EVs (PEVs) were considered for the near future of Sao Paulo transport system: (1) battery EVs (BEVs), which use only electricity and (2) hybrid plug-in vehicles (PHEVs), which use

including the assessment of future sustainable pathways. We selected the LEAP model because it is adequate to assess the effects of alternative energy programs, technologies, and other energy initiatives. LEAP is an energy end-use oriented tool for scenario analysis. LEAP can size the emissions of each fuel chain step, including the reduction of GHG emissions from extraction, processing, distribution, and combustion that may result from more efficient use of electricity and other fuels. LEAP models also may accomplish a complete accounting framework of the power system framework that allows consideration of both sup- ply and demand side technologies and is responsible for overall impacts of the system. It is a widespread tool with wide applications in energy (Gonz´alez et al., 2016; Haydt et al., 2011; Papa giannis et al., 2008), environment (Hao et al., 2015; Turnbull et al., 1967b ; Yan et al., 2009 ), and in the transport sector (Dias et al., 2014 ; Manzini, 2006 ; Turnbull et al., 1967a).

The road passenger transport sector in Sao Paulo was modeled following the energy reference system presented in Figure 3.1. The demand categories appear on the right side covering eight different end uses, expressed in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). The fuels listed at the top left include “conventional” and “alternative” fuels; the former referred to diesel and petrol; and the later referred to ethanol, biodiesel, natural gas (CNG), and electricity.

Figure 3.1 – The energy reference system of passenger transportation sector in Sao Paulo

Currently, passenger vehicles in Sao Paulo equipped with an internal combustion engine (ICE) are powered by fossil fuels (petrol and diesel); alternative fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, and natural gas); and hybrid fuels (gasoline–electricity). Current fleet of passenger cars consists of 73.2% of ICE cars, most of them flex-fuel (able to use both gasoline and ethanol), as well as electric (BEVs) and hybrid ones (PHEV), although in insignificant amounts (less than a thousand units). Figure 3.2 shows the structure of the current fleet of passenger cars in Sao Paulo. LEAP model accommodates the current fleet, as well as the expected fuel efficiency of the ICE vehicles over the years, as stated below.

emissions using the emissions factors presented in Table 3.1, both addressed to the fuel consumed in Sao Paulo’ s transportation system.

where i is the type of vehicle presented in the system, according to the fuel used (gasoline car, ethanol car, flex-fuel car, battery electric vehicle, and plug-in electric vehicle); the 50% ethanol; average mileage is constant for passenger cars, equals to 18,000 km/year vehicle; the number of vehicles varies annually according to the assumptions made in the model for each scenario; the average consumption varies to the horizon of 2030, according to the type of fuel used per vehicle.

Figure 3.2 – The energy reference system of small passenger cars in Sao Paulo Table 3.1– CO2 emission factors

Source Rate Gasoline A 2.269kg/L* Anhydrous ethanol 1.233kg/L* Hydrous ethanol 1.178kg/L* Electricity 0.025 tCO2/MWh** Source: (PMSP 2013; PMSP 2012)

Prospective scenarios were built regarding the evolution of passenger cars fleet between 2015 and 2030, taking a penetration rate of 25% for PEV. These penetration rates took into account several factors, namely, (1) the early stage of Sao Paulo with the infrastructure for pure EVs, thus hindering a rapid expansion of the BEVs models market; (2) the Brazilian public policy to promote the expansion of ethanol consumption; and (3) the domestic auto industry production policy based on

vehicles. The group of pure electric (BEV) was composed by the following cars: Nissan Leaf, VW Golf, Ford Focus, and BMW i3 EV.

Table 3.2 – Measures to support low-carbon mobility

Scenario

Name Objective Scenario description Reference Evaluate the results of projections

based on historical data and other known factors.

The evolution of the fleet (vehicles powered by gasoline, ethanol and flex-fuel) up to 2030 follows the trend of historical data for the period that goes from 2010 to 2014. The fleet of vehicles powered by gasoline decreases 7% / year; ethanol vehicles to decrease at a rate of 10% / year by 2030; flex-fuel fleet will increase, not only to replace the cars powered by ethanol and gasoline, that will be leaving the system, but also to secure an increase of 0.5%/ year of the total automobile fleet since 2014. The estimated average consumption assumed average consumption was 9 km / l for vehicles powered by gasoline and 6.3 km / l for ethanol vehicles (IBGE, 2012). The average mileage for passenger cars was 18,000 km per year (ESV, 2013). The rules of the Brazilian program for energy efficiency, INNOVATE- AUTO, listed below, were considered.

Eth_4_Gas Assess mobility options of low CO2

emissions with the use of ethanol (Eth) as primary fuel.

The flex-fuel passenger cars stop using gasoline from 2015 and start using only ethanol

EV_4_Gas Assess mobility options of low CO2

emissions using the plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric (PEV) vehicles instead of passenger cars powered by fossil fuel only.

25% of gasoline vehicles in 2030 are replaced by PEVs (in proportion of 30% BEVs and 70% PHEVs). The flex-fuel vehicles replace ethanol vehicles and guarantee an increase of 0.5% per year of the total car fleet EV&Eth_4_g

as Assess mobility options of low CO

2

emission using hybrid plug-in, pure electric and ethanol-powered (ENP + Eth) passenger cars as major energy consumers.

25% of gasoline and ethanol vehicles are replaced by PEVs (in proportion of 30% BEVs and 70% PHEVs). This scenario is similar to the previous one with the difference that the ethanol vehicles leaving the system are also replaced by PEVs. In addition, after 2015, all flex-fuel cars in the system only use ethanol

EVP&Eth_4_

Gas Assess mobility options of low CO

2

emission using pure electric cars and ethanol-powered (BEV + Eth) passenger cars as major energy consumers

Pure electric vehicles (BEVs) replace vehicles powered by gasoline and ethanol. This scenario is the same as the above with the difference that all electric vehicles entering the system are BEVs (no PHEVs). In addition, after 2015, all cars in the flex system only use ethanol

The group of plug-in hybrid models (PHEV) was composed by the following vehicles: Toyota Prius, Ford Fusion, Mitsubishi Outlander, and Golf GTE plug-in. The selected car models took into account their overall sales performance and the prestige to the Brazilian consumer.

2. All scenarios took into consideration the rules of the Brazilian program for energy efficiency, INNOVATE- AUTO. Based on the requirements of the program and international advancement of the automobile industry efficiency for ICE vehicles indicated in Table 3.2.

3. The flex-fuel vehicles consume 50% gasoline and 50% ethanol;

a)between 2017 and 2020, 70% of the fleet will get 13.6% reduction in the consumption of gasoline, 20% of the fleet will get a 25.5% reduction compared to 2014, and 10% fall under the Reference scenario;

b)between 2021 and 2030, 70% of the fleet will get 25.5% reduction in the consumption of gasoline compared to 2014 and 30% will be in the Reference scenario;

4. The mixture of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline was 25% between 2011 and 2014 and 27% from 2015.

5. The motorization rate at the end of the period should remain on a par with 2014 (around 28,000 cars per 100,000 inhabitants).

6. Electricity consumption of PHEVs was not considered, because there is no information available to determine the amount of electricity that hybrid cars consume in a given

period. However, as the battery life of hybrid cars is, on average, around 5% of the total autonomy of the vehicle, this fact is not very significant for the results of the scenarios.

7. The growth rate of the fleet used was 1.2% and the scrap rate was 0.5%.