Contexto local

5.1 Scanning – challenges and gains

The two examples described in Section 4 may be characterized as issue-centred scanning in the way the approaches substantiated the emerging issues. In exploratory scanning of potential problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, a somewhat broader basis is considered from the start, e.g. by internet search or text- mining. One restriction seen from the use of internet scanning methods is the fact that professional scanners may have biases in their searches and interpretation of findings. These aspects are typically addressed in foresight approaches (Truffer et al. (2008). While processing of information or expectations depend on individual experiences, priorities and positions, they are at the same time the result of social interaction. Actors' expectations are shaped by their position, but also by the specific social discourses they are actively or passively taking part in, e.g. particular professional discourses or media discourses. Some expectations even become very widespread across different actor groups thereby becoming shared points of orientation. That is, for some actors they become taken-for-granted presumptions. But even if actors are more sceptical, they tend to take these widely-held expectations into account, because they know that others share these expectations. Thus, expectations can be subject to strong social dynamics. Teams of scanners with different backgrounds would help to overcome this kind of pitfall. Expert surveys can in fact be quite useful in the processing and analysis phases having an explicit focus on certain fields and issues. By comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes, it seems that surveys are especially useful when areas are specified and the scanning starts from a well-defined field or sector, such as energy, water supply, or general science and policy (Czaplicka-Kolarz et al. 2009; Smith et al. 2010; Sutherland et al. 2010; 2011). Focusing on a specific field, surveys can deliver additional information on various side- aspects related to the core issues.

Timing is a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak while the impact may be tremendous.

5.2 Evaluation criteria

The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges. First, each of the methods described above has advantages and disadvantages depending on the specific circumstances under which they are applied. Some methods are better for the initial phases of the scanning process, while others fit better into the analysis phase (Table 1). In this regard, an evaluation across the different approaches and methods is difficult as their success is highly contextual. However, common criteria can be identified reflecting the information needs and interests of policy-makers, and the degree to which they are met by the different tools and approaches.

Some criteria were defined by Anamatidou et al. (2012):

 Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at which signal is observed

 Origin (stakeholder(s) behind them) and novelty of weak signals  Rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues

 Existence of a strategy already concerned with specific weak signal(s) and emerging issues by a government or industry, political party or lobby, or international organisation

 Positive and negative impacts and associated policy implications  Policy recommendations

Following the framework of tools and methods presented in Figure 3, certain combinations of methods can be created to provide a complete evaluation along the scanning process. Three combinations defined by Anamatidou et al. (2012) are:  A) Twitter/wiki scanning which is complemented by processing of weak signals.  B) Focused expert review which is complemented by text-mining.

 C) Focused expert review which is assisted by expert's survey, literature review and attending conferences.

In Table II, two of the above criteria are combined with the different approaches, and their appropriateness is addressed.

5.3 Societal contexts of scanning

Horizon scanning is not merely about searching for signals and their factual evidence. It is also about analysing and understanding the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication, (r)evolution and dissemination of issues, as well as their early recognition and monitoring. That means, not only the evidence-based plausible storyline in the identified future narrative counts. It is also crucial to collect information about who initiated the signals or issues, who followed, who opposed them, when and why. Then we consider the interests, emotions and attitudes of the different stakeholders as well as experts.

Overall, it can be said that the added value of emerging-issue scanning lies in the strategic combination of available tools to broaden the spectrum of possible signals and to interpret them in a functional way for decision-makers. In addition, the human intelligence is a valuable necessity, either as a collective, or single experts, especially for the alerting function of the horizon scanning process.

Another interesting aspect is to see to what degree scanning results are considered by present policy-making processes compared to model-based forecasting. It seems that model-based forward-looking results are considered a bit more seriously than horizon scanning results, even though economic models completely failed to forecast the

financial crisis of 2007–2008. On the other hand, horizon scanning in the Netherlands and UK spotted the financial crisis two years before it started.

Table II:Analysis of combined approaches across evaluation criteria (adapted Anamatidou et al. 2012)

Framework/approach (Figure 3) Semi-automated, participatory Semi-automated, non-participatory Manual combined Comb. of methods A B C Policy implications assessment

Medium High High

Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics in previous published

thematic foresight reports and policy documents.

Text-mining can show the policy related terms. In focused expert review narratives in the primary scanning, usually contain policy implications or even policy advice of the author.

A secondary scanning usually gives ideas on elaboration of proposed policies or of critics. As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by narratives in focused expert review. Conferences are useful to recruit potential policy workshop participants. Policy recommendations

Medium High High

Through discourses, networking,

interaction

with experts. Also via examination of relevant thematic foresight reports and recently published policy documents.

Meta descriptions of issues can be discussed in workshops with experts and stakeholders, which usually lead to recommendations. As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by policy workshops.

5.4 Impact on water utilities

Horizon scanning as a strategic approach for single water utilities seems to be challenging of several reasons. Anyhow, it must be provided as an opportunity for the business, and resources must be allocated for the scanning process. In short of knowledge, resources and time in own organisation, it may be an idea for the water utilities to collaborate on this in sector-associations or similar. Another opportunity is to engage a third party for the data collection.

Post-assessment of the information can however, take place in teams consisting of operating personnel from facilities in addition to the supporting personnel, relevant suppliers and others. Based on pre-assessments, the most relevant scanning methods seem to be expert reviews and surveys.

As seen from Dunn et al. (2014), the analysis of data could be designed as a tool for interaction with stakeholders, e.g. for horizon scanning a range of different pollutants

under different scenarios. In this case, to obtain mapped outputs depicting the qualitative responses to pollutants. In the example, the pollutant responses were based on expert judgement both in terms of the key climate and land use change drivers, and the degree to which these drivers could influence the response. Similar approaches may be applied to other problem areas connected to water utilities as well.

6.

Conclusion

In the present paper a description of approaches, and discussion of horizon scanning approaches related to cyber-physical threats to water utilities have been presented. Horizon scanning is generally seen as an instrument with two main functions: 1) the alerting function, and 2) the creative function. For the alerting function, comprehensive methods are needed to scan and assess early warning signals that may indicate potential emerging issues. The information origin span from a variety of published information, media and digital sources. For the more creative function, scanning methods need to be complemented with tools and participative processes that, on one hand, focus on clustering and synthesis of the scanned information and, on the other hand, human imagination and creativity.

As explained, different approaches to scanning, identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. The issues found from scanning processes are however, highly dynamic, social constructs that are partly evidence-based, and partly the results of the imagination, thinking and debating that takes place within different organisations and segments of society. The applicability to the water sector is therefore a matter of organisational concern, the ability to play on some 'extended' knowledge and resources, both within and outside the operating business.