Costo variables

In this chapter, the results of the four reports are compared. On a more general level, this is done by comparing the main code incidences. On a more specific level, this is done by comparing relative theme incidence. Together with the results from the individual reports, document portraits and the tables in figure 3 and 4, and appendix b are used to get an overview of the differences, commonalities and possible trends or patterns. From the analysis of the document portraits, results from analysing individual reports, and the tables, four things stand out

 The continuation of neoclassical ideas, either explicit or suggestive.

 The higher amounts in post-Keynesian ideas, both explicit and suggestive.

 The near annihilation in of descriptive codes in the 2009 report and lower amount in the 2011 report.

 The great increase of explicit codes vis-á-vis suggestive codes in the 2009 report.

Comparing the reports

Over all reports there is a prominent presence of neoclassical ideas. When comparing Neoclassical and post-Keynesian code incidence in table 4, the years 2005 and 2007 show a presence 83% and 82% respectively (combined presence of 82,77% ). The latter two years of 2009 and 2011 show a presence of 68 and 47 respectively (71,06% combined). As can be seen the contrasting paragraphs remain rather constant and are comprised of the two schools, hence are not influencing this division much. Nonetheless, there clearly is a higher post-Keynesian incidence in the reports published before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis. The mirror image of the neoclassical numbers above, show an average incidence of 17.23% before, and 28.94% afterwards.

The descriptive paragraphs present another interesting figure in the first report analysed after the outbreak of the crisis. In the 2009 report only 3.75% is coded descriptive, while earlier report are closer to 40%. The 2011 report shows a significant amount of descriptive coding again with around 30%. This might be interpreted as an indication that after the crisis, facts and figures do not speak for themselves, and that ideational aspects in the form of economic theory are needed for guidance. The explicit coded paragraphs also show a great increase in the reports after the crisis outbreak. For neoclassical codes this is 91.48% and 60.81%, while before it was 69.14% and 52.85%. This also might hint that clearer ideational views are sought after the outbreak of a crisis.

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When looking at the thematic distribution of the codes, most themes in earlier reports show a dominance or prominence of neoclassical economics. Especially the 2005 report shows a neoclassical leaning on 11 themes, while post-Keynesian codes are only present on three themes (markets, free trade and monetary policy). These are particularly the themes with no clear solution which show post-Keynesian presence (notably trade and linked themes). With the 2007 report, dominance of Neoclassical codes on (international) finance is lower. Notably the view on time and the loanable funds view of money remain, as well as seemingly the views on fiscal policy. On international finance and market stability views that align with post- Keynesianism can be discovered. This can be linked mostly to the start of the subprime mortgage crisis. Together with contrasting codes on market stability it can be said that there is no clear ideational view in this topic.

The 2009 report then, shows the first prominence for a post-Keynesian aligned view: international finance. Also the presence of business cycles views in this regard stands out. Still, neoclassical views on this theme are included, and some themes also show a dominance of neoclassicism, such as time and fiscal policy. In the last report analysed, post-Keynesian aligned views show dominance on international finance and (private) debts. In the text these are linked to the GFC and the following recession. Nonetheless, neoclassicism has remained dominant on the subject of time through all the reports. It also showed dominance on fiscal policy in most reports including the last one.

Table 3.

Main codes per report – Ideational & descriptive

Years

IMF 2005 IMF 2007 IMF 2009 IMF 2011

N % N % N % N % NC Total _{94 42,15 70 45,75 47 58,75 74 47,13} PK Total _{19 8,52 15 9,80 22 27,50 26 16,56} Descriptive _{99 44,39 58 37,91 3 3,75 48 30,57} Contrasting _{11 4,93 10 6,54 8 10,00 9 5,73} Overall Total _{223 100 153 100 80 100 157 100}

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Table 4.

Main codes per report - Neoclassical vs. Post-Keynesian

IMF 2005 IMF 2007 IMF 2009 IMF 2011

N % N % N % N % NC Explicit 65 57,52 37 43,53 43 62,32 45 45 NC Suggestive 29 25,66 33 38,82 4 5,80 29 29 NC Total 94 83,19 70 82,35 47 68,12 74 74,00 PK Explicit 2 1,77 2 2,35 9 13,04 6 6 PK Suggestive 17 15,04 13 15,29 13 50,00 20 20 PK Total 19 16,81 15 17,65 22 31,88 26 26,00 Overall Total 113 100 85 100 69 100 100 100

Abbreviations: NC = Neoclassical; PK = Post-Keynesian.

6.1 Case study results & ideational regime change theory

Comparing the results to the theory shows some clear commonalities, yet also some deviations. First, to discuss the fitting results, from the theory it was apparent that ideational regime change can take a long time period. Also, it is not given that regime change occurs. According to this thesis’s methods, ideational regime change has not been found as Neoclassical ideas always fitted at least half of the ideational coded paragraphs. Nonetheless, variations in ideas does occur mainly on separate economic themes; most notably international finance and market regulation. These results seem to fit explanations of policy experimentation (e.g Hall, 1993), as the do seem to stick with certain problems such as ineffective financial markets.

Furthermore, ideas indeed seem to be fitted to circumstances as put forth by Somers & Block (2005, p. 265). This can be deduced from a fit between events (e.g. subprime mortgage crisis), themes (e.g. market instability, finance), and ideas (e.g. post-Keynesian economics). In the same way, the rise of explicit ideas, both Neoclassical and post-Keynesian, fits another expectation in the literature: to find explanations and solutions for a crisis, researchers, scholars and public servants look at existing economic ideas. This makes it necessary to present (clearer) theoretical ideas. Suggestive and descriptive paragraphs are in such cases not clear enough to provide explanations for the crisis. Also it could be that when a crisis occurs, the previously

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dominant school can no longer be fitted to events. As such it can no longer implicitly be relied upon to give meaning. Therefore, descriptions and suggestive paragraphs are no longer sufficiently useful and are omitted in favour of explicit ideas

The exploratory character of this study broad some more unexpected results as well, which still can be linked to the theory. The decrease in descriptive paragraphs seems to fit the process described by Schmidt (2008) and Somers and Block (2005). They hold that it is only during crisis that ideas in the background or (unconsciously) held assumptions are debated. Descriptive paragraphs do merely put forward neutral information. Yet, when either 1) this information is assumed to self-explanatory, or 2) there is no need to discuss ideas before the crisis but there is afterwards- then, this could be explained by assumptions and ideas coming from the background in the foreground.

Additionally, interesting result may be the low amount of contrasting codes. This might suggests that, at least for the group of IMF authors, there seems to be no confusion about holding ideas constant, at least at the paragraph level. This might suggest that the choice for an idea is well thought through, and that idea change on the unit level may mostly happen as a clear switch.

All in all, the theory on ideational regime change is not contrasting to the results. When looking at the three stages of Somers & Block in the process of change. First reduction of uncertainty seems to happen on the issues where Neoclassical elements fit, and where they do not fit Post-Keynesian ideas are fitted. Second, causes are specified remaining along the lines of uncertainty reduction. The last stage of supply of new institutions cannot be found, which would fit the timelines of the change in economic thinking.

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